Hob's Blog

Steve

2011-10-06T21:27:00.004+01:00

What can be written that hasn't been written already?

I met Steve twice and consider myself very fortunate to have done so. The first time was when I was headhunted for the potential role of head of IT for Next Computer and had passed the first interview with the CFO - Susan Kelly Barnes who I was really impressed with. It was early days in the company and no one outside knew what was going to come out. I was fascinated of course, though I was mostly set on returning to the UK. My interview with 4 different people went ok, but not brilliantly. With Steve I felt I probably had a C grade - when he only does A++. It was an intense experience where he demonstrated (as has been said by many others) a truly unbelievable breadth of knowledge about everything from MRP systems to corporate IT decision making etc. He was intrigued that I had been behind my employer at the time buying around 300 Macs. However, I'm not sure he thought I was clever for that or a fool. (My employer had been the leading VC behind Apple and the company that brought it public though by then it was in the distant past). However, the ideas we had at that time contributed to innovations in software on Unix workstations that went on to change the way Wall Street looked at information. The Mac was my personal inspiration for that - the first computer that really allowed visualisation of information and ideas.

Later on I met Steve again when he was the keynote speaker for our company (Tibco) at our annual client conference and he remembered me positively from the interview (so maybe it was a B-). A few years later he was to return to Apple.

When I see my daughter use an iPad - which she was able to do at 13 months - the day we got one, and my mum too make a Facetime call and work on her family tree, it is a joy for me - as indeed has been my experience of just about all of Apple's products (even with some rough times in the middle). I cannot believe we no longer have him here shaping the future, but every single day I appreciate the impact he's had on my life and that of people around me. He eventually succeeded in creating the world's best business, but more than that, he's achieved that while making profound and undeniably positive changes to the way the whole world uses accesses information and content and collaborates with each other. What an incredible and astonishing achievement. RIP.

Couldn't resist!

2010-01-25T09:26:00.006Z

Back-from-the-blogging-dead for just 1 post!

For the last few weeks, it's been full-on with the rumour mill on the Apple iTablet/iSlate or whatever. Let's just call it the iTablet here though I doubt (hope) tablet or slate will be in the name.

There have been some really intelligent things written by the usual commenters (oh, if I could write and think like Gruber!), and there's been the usual useless prophesying of doom, me-too, etc.

What the naysayers still haven't realised after years of being proven wrong is that Apple hasn't just been lucky, it's been incredibly smart for years and years. The only area where Apple has arguably not delivered a success in the Jobs-era is the AppleTV - and this is the one thing that Steve Jobs described as a hobby around the time it was released. If you haven't figured out this guy is smart yet, it's really about time you stopped "analysing"? I've interviewed with him before, and believe me he knows what he wants and he knows the people who can make it happen (I DIDN'T get the job!)

Has Apple's success happened overnight with just a few clever ideas? No. Look at the small pieces that have to be put together one component at a time to deliver the whole experience. It is this attention to detail in terms of the overall experience that takes each individual product above its competitors and keeps it out ahead. At the same time, Apple would rather leave out a feature than do it badly or have it create other problems that they KNOW, but the "analysts" don't. Does it now look like a stupid move to have a 2G iPhone as the first model?

So, with this in mind, we enter this week in the expectation that Apple will completely re-invent another area of our lives that we didn't even know needed re-inventing before the rumours started. Just as Apple killed the successful iPod mini with the iPod nano, I expect it this week to announce the product that begins the long-term decline of the laptop. Of course, many people will still need a laptop and/or prefer one (I'm likely to be a long term user for many reasons, but I would probably be considered unusual), and these people will generally be the ones that pour scorn on the new direction. Other people will say it wasn't Apple that did it, but that Apple is just responding to the netbook companies that started it.

But, Apple will do it in Apple's way - using user interface paradigms that initially we'll be unsure about, but will begin to appreciate as we see it demoed, as we see it being used, and as we begin to use it ourselves. Irrespective of the absolute form factor and other features, it will be the way we interact with it that will make THIS product introduction be the defining way such devices will work in the long term. Think Mac GUI and mouse, iPod clickwheel and iPhone multi-touch here - defining moments in the consumer electronics industry.

Could Apple get it wrong? Possibly. Newton 1.0 wasn't ready for primetime. Newton 2.0 was, but never got over the reputation of 1.0. Jobs is smarter than the people around Apple at that time. He has been waiting until it all comes together to do it right (iPod required small disks, firewire and clickwheel to do something revolutionary; iPhone required touch, SSD, high power tiny chips).

Apple have been sweating these details for years. I've read a rumour that the iPhone came out of the tablet development, and it's not an unlikely scenario. Multi-touch was not sufficiently developed or even understood to be used in something revolutionary beyond a small device with limited gestures. As MacWorld contributor Dan Moren wrote, this device will succeed or fail based on whether people BELIEVE they can INPUT stuff into it quickly and accurately - whatever stuff they want, but especially the stuff they are used to putting in their laptops via a keyboard. Any additional inputs (e.g. dictation, recording) will be bonuses. But the basics are a REQUIREMENT.

If Apple CAN get the input side right (early reactions will no doubt include the same people who condemned touch on the iPhone), then it has several advantages over the situation in mobile when it jumped in. Here, they were a late entrant into a theoretically competitive and maturing market - a market that was supposed to swallow up the iPod line as this functionality became just an extra app built into a mobile. Also, there was the gateway managed by restrictive telcos to negotiate - what was the most Apple could put in the device that would still allow them to partner with one or more major telcos? The iPhone remains below it's true potential today for these reasons (e.g. VoIP on 3G), but has blown a big hole in many of the restrictive models that were around before - something rarely appreciated by Apple's critics, but which has benefitted all handset makers and consumers.

In this case, we have an immature market, with no gatekeepers - and that is even giving some credit to the tablets already out there that are really nothing more than windows pc's with a stylus. With the iPhone, there were NO apps when it was released, and the best we could get were a limited number of web apps. Apple will release the tablet with a rich set of applications already there to demonstrate it's usefulness, and the existing iPhone developers will jump on ship quickly making use of possibly the best application delivery platform ever available (I do not see this as just a big iPhone - that would fail, but I do see many of the developments being carried over to the iTablet. I guarantee, there will be no shortage of apps very quickly - perhaps even day 1. Let's just hope that the good ones rise to the surface quickly. I believe the key in widespread success will be how quickly the ecosystem of hardware add-ons and software develops to produce compelling uses that were never before possible with either a laptop or a tiny phone. That will create the barriers to entry allowing Apple to profit from the device over the long term.

That brings us to two other key success factors. The first is how much Apple can open up this device when compared with the iPhone. I've no doubt this will be an openly multi-tasking device (not just limited to certain Apple-designed apps) - but how this is done without compromising performance, reliability and security will be key. I also think Apple will have to allow alternative application delivery methods here - at least in the medium term. Central control has served it (and its customers) well for the iPhone. But this model will be too restrictive in the longer term for a device like this, constrain new business models and entrants into the ecosystem. I don't believe Windows will develop fast enough to offer good alternatives, but Google can take either ChromeOS or Android into this area quite quickly and give a more open proposition if Apple doesn't do it fast on the back of release.

The final issue comes down to cost. Apple is known as the high cost company - something I feel is grossly misrepresented by many in the media and the anti-apple brigade who can't understand basic specification sheets or look at cost of ownership - but let's face it, plenty of companies will come up with something cheaper that purports to do a similar thing. Can Apple deliver this best-of gadget at a compelling price - much as it has with the iPhone - by both quantity production and perhaps viewing the device as a gateway to content consumption and application purchase for which it's getting a cut?

If these things are on Apple's side, then this device becomes the main device we carry around with us as we work, play, travel, etc. THE primary device on which content is consumed, communicated and collaborated (but less so, created). Sure, we'll still need our phones - and for many this may still do - but how often will most people need their laptop? It's not even going to be one device per family - this will be intended to be a one-per-family-member product much as the iPod has become - with you in the kitchen/breakfast table, a companion to watching tv, on the train, in meetings, at conferences or lectures, as we go about most aspects of our jobs and our leisure activities. There will be a steady shift back towards the home computer/desktop computer as the place it all comes together and for heavy lifting (e.g. photo/video management) - as well as (or maybe just) the cloud for the actual storage of our data.

The notebooks have tried to destroy the laptop market by cheapness. Can Apple destroy it (an area it makes much of its profit) by building something BETTER than a laptop for most of what we do? I personally think it can and I think Steve Jobs is on a mission to do this (remember the comment "the PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago"? Is that not a motivator for him to change the game?). The mainstream media have set this as a (perhaps an unfairly) high hurdle, but Wednesday's announcement will probably be judged on whether the new product meets this challenge (while being criticised for attempting to take the challenge on and not delivering in every single possible area!). It is a measure of Apple's achievements that this is even being talked about so enthusiastically BEFORE a product is released - where's the excitement from Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc who should equally be capable of this sort of development, let alone the Redmond machine which will once again be left looking foolish and void of ideas. It will be a true measure of greatness if Apple can deliver something that yet again inspires a new round of innovation.

What an exciting week ahead!

Tags: Apple, iTablet, iSlate, iPhone, Microsoft

Guardian Own-goal

2009-05-26T16:07:00.005+01:00

I've written on many occasions about the Guardian and Observer - their inability to call the right shots on Apple, the MMR scandal of the Observer and a few other gaffes, but I had to write this one down for posterity demonstrating that their sports correspondents also seem to be a bit weak.

On Sunday in the last game of the season, Everton beat Fulham by 2-0, (well done Everton by the way and particularly congratulations to David Moyes and Bill Kenwright for an amazing year), and the Guardian report by Jamie Jackson on the match had the following gem (no doubt it's been fixed in the link UPDATE - yes it has, but here's the quote anyway):

Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United are Everton's opponents in Saturday's FA Cup final.

This will no doubt come as a shock to Everton, who felt that beating Manchester United in the semi-finals would have been enough to eliminate them from the competition. Chelsea may also feel aggrieved having been ousted after legitimately beating Arsenal in the other semi-final.

This is such a basic mistake, it's hard to imagine anyone even remotely qualified in football making it. But perhaps, Mr Jackson just wanted to get United mentioned a few times in the short report on the match? Perhaps the article gets more hits if this team is mentioned, even though the link to this game was tenuous at best?

Anyway guys, time for a root and branch clean up of your writers?

I'll be winding this blog down even further over the coming months as no one is really interested, and I'm so short of time nowadays (those that know me will understand why, those that don't are free to ask!). But I will try to take the opportunity to revisit some of the posts and see if Hobsblog called the shots better than the British press. (hint: I think we did!)

Tags: Guardian, Everton, Fulham

iTunes DRM-free 40 minutes BEFORE MacWorld!

2009-01-06T17:23:00.004Z

Just spotted that a whole load of albums - TingTings, Duffy, etc are now all DRM-free on the UK iTunes store.

So, it looks like this one rumour is TRUE! Finally. I don't think the labels had much choice ultimately - it would have been severely anti-competitive to prevent Apple from having this option, when competitors had been given it.

Anyhow, I'm off on a spending spree. Oh, and the Ting Tings is just £3.95 and Duffy £4.99 - not bad prices either!

You heard it here FIRST!

Update: Albums from the Cure, Morrissey, Echo and the Bunnymen - all of which I'm sure previously were with DRM, now are iTunes plus. Labels include Sony BMG and Warner.

Tags: iTunes, DRM, Apple, iPod

New Google Public Transport Info Sucks!

2008-11-22T18:06:00.005Z

Got my iPhone 2.2 software loaded and thought I'd check out some of the new features.

I haven't been able to get Google Street View to work yet for London, but I did come to try the new travel directions feature. Unfortunately the results are embarrassing - for Google, and I think this needs a lot more work on it.

Here's what I got for a simple route from Piccadilly in London to Battersea SW11. It's a route of about 4.5km or just under 3 miles, walkable in about 55 minutes. A single London bus (19) will do the journey in (hopefully) about half that time.

Google's instructions were as follows:
1. Walk 1.1km to Hyde Park corner (fair enough).
2. Take the 702 bus towards Ascot but getting off at Victoria station - 1 stop on. (For my American friends this journey is like getting on a greyhound bus in Manhattan and going 5 blocks down 5th Avenue).
3. Get the the 025 bus towards Eastbourne (a town on the south coast), but getting off at Gatwick airport.. Note, no suggestion about the much faster train service from exactly the same place also to Eastbourne and also stopping at Gatwick airport. Gatwick airport is about 25-30 miles from central London.
4. Now take the airport bus from South terminal to north terminal!.
5. Get a bus EB4 from Gatwick to Fulham Broadway back in Central London.
6. Finally walk 2.4km to SW11 (total walk of 3.5km).

This public transport version which saves just 1km of walking, takes 3 hours and 15 minutes and appears to travel at least 60 miles! There is no cost given, but I suspect it is substantial.

Google claims (on it's website) to use the travelinesoutheast.org.uk data. However, using this service throws up several London bus routes (though not the best ones). It would seem that Google has ignored 98% of the available alternatives (including all London buses, and all trains).

A year ago, we used a government service to find the best route to drive to Hastings on the south coast, and it threw up a route going via Ashford and over 90 miles in distance. The direct route (which google itself gave) was around 55 miles. The government site then added further futility by suggesting speed should be no more than 55mph to limit CO2 emissions! Sure, your CO2 emissions might be 10% less than they would have been, but their stupid route would have increased it by 50% over what it should have been anyway!

It seems we've still got a way to go in making these services useful. I'd hate to see what a tourist would have done with Google's information, and I'm glad I use my bike to get around London.

Tags: Google, iPhone, Transport, London

New Forest Donkeys waiting for bus

2008-11-17T19:46:00.004Z

Just got back from a brief trip to the New Forest which despite being grey and rainy was still spectacular. I can certainly recommend the New Park Manor Hotel and Spa which - on a Sunday night deal - is great value. But my favourite moment is captured here (trying a new camera incidentally as well) while cycling round the area.

I'll definitely be heading back for a spring visit with hopefully better light.

Funny thing is nobody had told the donkeys that the bus doesn't run on Sundays!

New Apple store in London White City

2008-10-30T13:29:00.006Z

I queued up to get into the new Westfield Centre in White City this morning, then queued up to get into the new Apple Store (not helped by none of the centre staff knowing where it was - it's on the 3rd floor).

Anyhow, here's a photo of it. It's certainly not London Regent Street-size but bigger than some I've seen.

The Westfield Centre is quite an amazing experience - not exactly my cup of tea - but as the 3rd largest of its kind in UK (and largest inside a city), it is worth a visit.

I wonder now if London has more Apple stores than any other city? With Regent Street, Brent Cross and now Westfield/White City, that's as many/more than Manhattan I believe. Then Kingston, Lakeside and Bluewater would all count as Greater London by virtue of being in or around the M25. Can any large city beat 6 as of Nov 2008?

Tags: Apple Store, Apple, White City, London

Firewire dead? You could have read it here 3 years ago!

2008-10-17T18:39:00.006+01:00

By a quirk of fate, the firewire -missing-from-MacBook-furore (one of many, many stories on this) got me looking back on my posts and finding one that I made on exactly this day 3 years ago! Sure, I perhaps expected it faster, and I don't take credit for predicting it's demise - I'd give the credit to the CEO of Wiebetech whose article I had read.

But the signs have been getting more ominous over the last few years - no firewire syncing of iPods, iSights built-in using USB, all new camcorders (effectively) using USB, most external disks supporting USB as the basics, and of course the fact that just about all PC's (laptop or desktop) don't offer it either, and most recently lack of firewire charging of iPods and iPhones.

It seems amazing to me that people are astonished by this after this time has elapsed and when it was quite clear so long ago that this was inevitable. I give good reasons in the article, and it is not that firewire was a technical failure - just a commercial also-ran. It's also fairly clear that perhaps excepting journalists in the field with small laptops and high end camcorders, the loss is not really anything other than an imagined problem by now.

In some ways, the Apple faithful should perhaps be chastising Apple for not including an e-sata interface on the MacBook Pros! Because, surely, Firewire is clearly not going to be around forever? Otherwise, these announcements seem great to me - very very solid improvements, and a real 13" MacBookPro at MacBook prices (well, minus firewire!).

Anyway, if you didn't read it here first, then perhaps you could have done! And, perhaps I should be digging through some old posts about Apple marketshare predictions and the Guardian/Observer getting it so wrong on calling the end of iPod!

Tags: Firewire, Apple, MacBook, MacBookPro

Wot? No Wi-fi on BlackBerry Storm?

2008-10-08T18:18:00.003+01:00

According to here the BlackBerry Storm does not list wi-fi among it's specifications. I have seen no announcements in the mainstream press about this - mostly praising the device as an iPhone competitor. Did they just miss this, or do they consider it unimportant?

Surely, without Wi-Fi, data usage costs will be much higher for most users, and the utility of the device will be worse (not much good in non-3G areas for instance, and certainly something you won't want to use too much around the home and office).

Is anyone going to call this out?

Tags: BlackBerry, Apple, Storm, iPhone,
Wi-fi

Virgin Balloon Near-Miss

2008-07-25T21:01:00.003+01:00

Just captured this tonight. Amazing. Not sure quite how the basket managed to get over the phone/electricity wires and between two houses. But it landed in a field at the bottom of the ridge without incident!

Tags: Virgin, Balloon

The Cure at Wembley - Amazing Concert

2008-03-22T11:05:00.007Z

Just a quick note to mention what a great concert The Cure put on at Wembley Arena on Thursday night (20th March 2008).

Their set was an astonishing 3hours and 25 minutes including 3 encores totalling over an hour. Thirty years of material still couldn't be crammed into that time, but they made a great selection, and in the encore the emphasis was clearly on the older stuff - somewhat re-invented. It was also a good reminder of how consistently good and inventive they have been across their career (cf: U2).

The photos - taken for proof I was there, certainly not for quality - were taken with my iPhone (the "close-up" through one side of a pair of binoculars!). I think it highlights a key weakness of Wembley! (I also didn't realise they let you take in proper cameras into such places).

I hate Wembley Arena as a venue, and perhaps it was to make up for that (and that this night was their ONLY UK gig) that made them go out of their way to provide a memorable night. The stamina required for such a gig is incredible and puts younger bands to shame - well done, Robert (and rest of band).

If The Cure are stopping through your city in the next few months, do check them out for a memorable evening.

Tags: The Cure, Robert Smith

Free Speech In Danger

2008-01-24T19:44:00.000Z

Just a small post in support of the very valuable site The Quackometer.

This is a great site debunking all the ridiculous snake oil, wu-wu claims of the increasing numbers of people/companies who are putting down good science for their own personal gains, spreading fear, uncertainty, doubt, illness and even death. There are many other sites giving more information about this situation, here's a few links:

One
Two

But, irrespective of the arguments involved, we should be most concerned at the failure of important companies to guard the net and ensure freedom of speech. Unfortunately, even Google have succumbed to this, which is very scary indeed (check the first item in the search results). As for the Quackometer's hosting company - Netcetera - they should be truly ashamed at their behaviour in this episode. I have written to them. Why not do the same?

Well, "Dr"/"Prof" Joseph Chikelue Obi, you can just fuck yourself. As a disgraced professional and fraudster, you should be ashamed of yourself. What you have done to your patients, what you're claiming to do for them, how you're trying to recruit more snake oil salesmen to your clan, AND what you have done in an attempt to shut down people who merely bring attention to your failings is truly despicable.

I think it is important that those of us who value free speech make efforts to bring attention to this outrage. So, please post a link to the Quackometer on your site to support this or write a comment of support.

Tags: The Quackometer, Netcetera Google

GIGO - Garbage In Garbage Out Example

2008-01-19T09:45:00.000Z

Happy New Year reader(s)!

I was most impressed yesterday to see how IT has revolutionised marketing. In my postbox was a fully-personalised full-colour brochure from Thomson Holidays with every page trying to be personal (eg. The Surname Holiday Brochure 2008 - A range of personally selected holidays for my name).

Page 2 showed photos of the Roman Epic Cruise I went on last year including a nice photo of the Thomson Destiny cruise ship. It reminded me when I had departed Gatwick airport (May 2007 in case I'd forgotten). It suggested I might want to cruise the Eastern Mediterranean this year based on last year's selection. Great fuzzy logic, guys!

However, as the character Kryten would say from the Red Dwarf TV Series, "There's just one small problem with that, sir".

Despite having my address entirely correct, the brochure was addressed to a Mr Johnson. Hobson/Johnson, understandable, perhaps? But more notable is the fact that I certainly did not depart Gatwick in May 2007 to join the Thomson Destiny. Indeed, I have never, ever been on a Thomson holiday in my life (what do you take me for, dear reader?).

And in case you thought perhaps they just got the address slightly wrong, there are only 2 flats at this number, and the other flat does not have a Mr Johnson either. There are no other flats at nearby numbers, and certainly none at this postcode (a postcode it took me 10 years to get the Royal Mail to accept - another story, however).

Nice idea, Thomson, but if you really can't get the data right, a complete waste of money. It made me wonder about the quality of their whole database and the thought crossed my mind that they might have sent an incorrect brochure to everyone on the list. It also made me think of the bank (urban myth perhaps but funny nonetheless) who sent a mailing to every one of their customers addressed "Dear Rich Bastard" after the programmer had left some of his testing code in and used his test database customer - a Mr Richard Bastard - against the production address file.

At least the brochure suggests recycling, which it will quickly succumb to.

Movie Recommendation - Shut Up and Sing

2007-12-04T19:50:00.001Z

Watched "Shut Up and Sing" last night - a documentary about The Dixie Chicks and how they went from heroes to zeroes in the US Country Scene because of one comment from singer Natalie Haines at a UK concert about President Bush just before the outbreak of war with Iraq.

The best movies I've watched lately have been documentaries, and this is wonderful. As someone who supported the war (though primarily for human rights reasons), I have no problem with what she said. But the reaction of (some of) the US public is truly frightening, and the consequential cave-in by business and the media is something every citizen should be concerned with.

I'm not sure I was more impressed by Natalie's ability to withstand the attacks and death threats or by the way the other two band members supported her and stood together throughout a very long and protracted episode (and how incredibly normal they all are!). Well done Dixie Chicks!

If you value free speech, this one is a great watch.

Tags: Shut Up and Sing, Dixie Chicks

Incredible Video

2007-12-04T19:42:00.000Z

There's not a lot I can add to this, but if you haven't seen this video on chimps outperforming humans at memory tasks, do go. It simply is amazing, especially the speed of it.

Then read the article afterwards.

(Yes, I know I should have embedded the YouTube video here, but I didn't have time to set that up yet).

Tags: New Scientist, Chimps

O2 and iPhone Fair Usage Policy

2007-11-03T18:15:00.000Z

A conversation with an O2 store manager, fresh back from iPhone training:

Me: "So, what IS the fair usage policy for the 'unlimited data plan' going to be on the iPhone accounts?"
O2: "40Gigabytes"

Me: "Really, that actually seems quite high to me and not what I had read. I had even heard that it might be as low as 200MB. Are you sure?"
O2: "Oh, no, sorry, the 40GB is for our new home broadband package. But it's very high for the iPhone, definitely."

Me: "Er, so, what actually is it?"
O2: "Um, er..." rummaging around various papers, and the website (which said nothing other than "fair usage policy applies"). "...I'll call a guy who's sure to know".

O2 guy on phone with other O2 guy: "A customer here wants to know the iPhone fair usage policy amounts". pause and more pause. Quite clearly the guy who's sure to know doesn't actually know.

Slightly embarassed O2 guy to me: "He thinks it's either 70MB or 200MB. Either way, that's a huge amount of data on a phone."

Me: "Really, as low as 70MB? That doesn't seem to be too much for what is described as unlimited data".

O2: "For email, it's all text and there's not much else you'd get that is large".
Me: ??? (too gobsmacked to contradict him).

So, I leave non-the-wiser, except that I have confirmed that o2 retail is just as poor as I expected. The only thing the store manager (post training, remember) knew that I didn't is that the sales opening time is not 6pm, but 6.02pm. (geddit?). He was very proud of that. Oh, he also knew (or thought) they would have 60,000 on sale in the 400 odd o2 stores, and that they might get delivery that day (Friday) for the week ahead - (hope their security is tight).

Nevertheless after 10 years with Orange and Nokia, I have my PAC number and will be in line on Friday (mercifully at an Apple store), with no qualms whatsoever about switching. While I was impressed with the last Orange rep I spoke to, I have had a very poor year with them at every level with a completely defective handset (Nokia N80) that was essentially unusable for the things it promised, and poorer than any recent phone I've had in terms of basic interface and even for the job of making calls and sending texts. Despite my 3G plan, I have almost never used the web browser, and I would not countenance emailing with it. The Wi-Fi feature was so badly implemented as to be worse than not having it as it could not be disabled. I have a list of fundamental problems with the phone, some of which should have been addressed by firmware which never came. While the N95 successor may have fixed some of these shortcomings, I have generally heard negative things from most recent real users of these devices after a short time of actually using them. (An interface requiring 16 different button presses before you start typing the body of an sms is completely ludicrous.)

I do wish Orange (a lesser company than they were imho), or Vodafone, had won the rights, but I have known from the minute I saw the announcement that I would get one (did you imagine anything else?). Having briefly played with an unlocked one, that decision was vindicated.

While clearly a cost of around £900 over 18 months is a lot, it is not much different than the plan I had with Orange including the upgrade cost for the N80, which did not include wi-fi hot spot access and had severe caps on data and SMS. I know that I will use the features of this device, which I would not (and could not) on the N80. The equally expensive N95 would not have rectified most of the N80's shortcomings in my mind.

However, somebody please at O2, sort out what "unlimited data plan" and "fair usage policy applies" really means. And, the latest wording on the website "All usage must be for your private, personal and non-commercial purposes" does not inspire confidence in that regards. Nor does "(not) use your SIM Card or iPhone to allow the continuous streaming of any audio / video content, enable P2P or file sharing or use them in such a way that adversely impacts the service to other O2 customers". C'mon, are you serious? In reality, any usage of a shared service like a cell causes degradation to the others on that cell.

While I do not expect to use the iPhone as a replacement broadband + computer device, I don't see that "unlimited" and "70MB" go together, nor restrictions about zero business/commercial use. These clauses are both stupid and unenforceable.

I am, perhaps, trusting too much in the regulator to intervene if such ridiculous limitations are in reality applied. Nevertheless, I will be in-line somewhere off Regent Street starting Friday afternoon. Hope to see you there!

Tags: iPhone, Apple, O2, Fair Usage Policy,
Unlimited data

Blogging hiatus and ChargeBox

2007-11-03T17:29:00.000Z

Just a quick note as to my recent blogging silence. Hopefully you've all (the two of you that is) not gone away.

I've been working increasingly long hours and that is only going to get worse for a while longer. For the last 36 months (the last 18 months of which in a part-time consultant FD role) I've been involved with an exciting company called ChargeBox®, and as of the 1st November, I will be taking over as MD - even if just for a year or so until the founder, Toby returns from an extended sabbatical helping Oxfam in Nepal.

ChargeBox® is a kiosk for the 21st century - in our case charging mobile phones, smartphones, mp3 players and portable game consoles in a secure locker. We've designed the ChargeBox®, got it manufactured in the UK (yes!) and are developing a global brand with kiosks now in France, Iceland, Spain, Ireland, Turkey, South Africa and, soon, Papua New Guinea. You can also find them in 14 high street phone stores of a certain mobile phone company I couldn't possibly mention. Our ChargeBox is equipped with a GSM module allowing 2-way SMS and GPRS data connections for monitoring purposes and even a payment-by-SMS function. Our web-based IT system allows us to monitor the performance of every ChargeBox® around the world with a SIM card. We were featured on BBC Click earlier this year.

We're still very small, and we have a lot of challenges, but we're hoping for some major progress soon, both domestically and internationally. If you use a ChargeBox®, let me/us know what you think.

Visit our website at http://www.chargebox.com to find out more, to look at maps of where they are and instructions on how to find a chargebox when you're out and about.

I will look to bring back some blogging around this subject and my usual rants in the months ahead. Unfortunately, much of what I'd like to say about growing a small company has to remain confidential (because of our clients), so that makes some topics off-limits. Do keep subscribed, and do let me know your thoughts on ChargeBox® if/when you get a chance/need to use one.

Inevitable iPhone post coming up (in case you thought I'd gone soft)....

Tags: ChargeBox®

Wales looks to the future...

2007-09-20T14:28:00.000+01:00

I came across this article today with Plaid Cymru (the Welsh political party) banning wi-fi in its schools. Lots of comments from ignorami, and none from anyone knowledgeable.

Added to this story from last week where a school governor and Labour party researcher called the Welsh language "practically brain dead" on an internet chat room (He later claimed he meant to say "dead" not "brain dead"). He was forced to quit for his honesty and reality. I don't have a problem with Welsh being taught and people electing to learn it. But to pretend that making this compulsory does not reduce learning of some other subjects of more vocational use is just plain delusional.

In this day and age of globalisation and competitiveness, it strikes me the Welsh are heading towards being the Amish of the EU with these sorts of attitudes. I find it particularly sad that in both cases the stories are reported as if there is only one side - the side of the Luddite. No wonder Wales is a permanent drain on the UK and EU taxpayer to subsidise its industry.

Tags: British Press, Welsh, WiFi

Life Returns to Normal? (humour)

2007-08-03T18:45:00.000+01:00

I posted about the devastating floods in Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire a couple of weeks ago. Hundreds of thousands of people have been affected with no electricity and no water for almost two weeks. Thousands of businesses have been devastated through damage or the by-product of the economy as it normally is, just coming to a halt. (Of course, our experiences next to South East Asia are themselves relatively trifling).

So, it was good to see, while on a cycle ride through Herefordshire today, that life has obviously returned to normal as witnessed by THE major news in the Hereford Times which I was able to snap for your benefit. Note that The Hereford Times is THE key local newspaper for one of the areas most affected by these floods.

I continued to suffer fits of laughter for the rest of the bike ride, wondering for instance whether the reporter thought that seagulls should be able to distinguish between guide dogs and ordinary dogs (presumably fair game for seagulls), or whether the reporter felt that SOMEBODY had to act - perhaps by issuing ASBOs to the anti-social seagulls? Or maybe, seagulls have a code for divebombing which awards additional points for getting guide dogs or blind people as in the 70's film Death Race 2000? Unfortunately, I cannot answer these questions as I couldn't bring myself to buy a copy.

But in the end (sadly and humourlessly) the sheer inanity of this headline is just another tiny bit of evidence in my slowly growing dossier on the patheticness of the British press (and perhaps its readership). While a troubling incident to, er, the blind person and indeed the guide dog, after such devastation, and indeed, even without it, are there not more public interest stories in Herefordshire deserving of our attention than this? (Yes, there are, fortunately the BBC has many).

Tags: British Press, Hereford, Hereford Times, July Floods

Holding the Observer to account (again)

2007-07-26T18:17:00.000+01:00

Back last year, the (Sunday) Observer newspaper - sister to the Guardian - ran a truly amazing full-page article entitled "Why the iPod is losing its cool" by David Smith, supposed technology correspondent.

In this article, Mr Smith, claimed that

Sales are declining at an unprecedented rate. Industry experts talk of a 'backlash' and of the iPod 'wilting away before our eyes'

This article was written as a factual piece not an opinion piece. I made mention of it in this blog post, but decided not to attack it then. After all, perhaps David knew something I didn't and that iPod sales WERE in freefall?

I further chose not to comment on it after Apple's first quarterly announcement post the Smith article when they demonstrated once again iPod sales had risen 35% over the previous year. I again avoided the urge to comment after the December quarter when sales rose an astonishing 50% over the previous year (a year when both the iPod video and iPod nano had been introduced to much acclaim). I chose not to comment on it after Apple's Q2 announcement in April, when sales were up 24%. But now, a full 4 quarters of reporting has passed, and really, I can't let it sit any longer.

In the quarter just gone, iPod sales were up again - 21% in fact over the same quarter last year. In that 12 months, Apple's iPod sales were 35% up on the previous year. In that last year, Apple has sold over 50million iPods which represent 47% of all iPods ever sold. In other words, Apple has in the last 12 months sold just about as many iPods as it did in the previous 5 years COMBINED. Furthermore, in the iPod's history, it has never suffered a sales decline on a year-over-year basis on any measurable financial quarter.

That doesn't sound like a product that is either "losing its cool" or suffering from "declining sales at an unprecedented rate". I haven't seen too many analysts dissing the iPod either (though there's always a few media boys).

What was the reason for Mr Smith's article? Was it to try to create a backlash? Was it influenced by another company about to launch a product? Was he hoping to be able to claim when a possible iPod decline came along that he was first? Or was it just absolute stupidity and ignorance?

Would Mr Smith or the Observer like to apologise and to admit they have been wildly wrong? Would they care to write a similar full page article gushing about the apparently unstoppable iPod phenomenon? Given how the Observer can not even bring itself to apologise about a life and death issue it has got blatantly wrong, I'm not holding my breath.

(I'd like to think there ISN'T a conspiracy here and that it is plain ignorance. I suspect Mr Smith used two sequential quarters of iPods sold to point to a decline. That's a pretty poor way to use statistics that surely anyone at school is taught about. It was also an "unprecedented rate of decline" because there had never been a decline (and there still hasn't unless you believe consumer products exhibit no seasonality).

How about owning up, David, and saying you were absolutely and completely wrong? Or are you going to try getting the same message out again in the hope that at SOME point in the future, you will actually be right?

Tags: Apple, iPod, Observer, Sales, Guardian

Apple Overtakes Hewlett Packard

2007-07-26T14:56:00.000+01:00

A quick observation following the market today digesting Apple's Q3 results announced last night.

Apple has now overtaken HP in terms of market capitalisation (as of 26th July at 14:45 GMT). (Market Capitalisation is the figure that represents the total enterprise value attached to that company by the stock market). That is quite an achievement, as it was little more than than a year ago that it overtook Dell Computer. Apple is now close to double Dell's market capitalisation. To match HP, Apple has done very well indeed. It's not as if HP has had a bad time either - taking significant business from Dell in recent quarters.

Apple has also overtaken Oracle in the last year. The next target, ironically, is Intel - currently around $141bn. Then Google at $158bn, closely behind Cisco and IBM each in the $170bn range. Overhauling any of these companies could happen with a good year or two for Apple, though it would also require comparative stagnation for those companies. I certainly wouldn't bet against Google!

Microsoft is still a long way ahead of the rest of the IT industry with a market cap of around $280bn. We'll have to wait a while longer before that is even a possibility.

As always with such numbers, there is a lot of variation from hour to hour and day to day. Apple and HP will no doubt each be trying to push ahead of each other over the coming few months before a clear trend emerges. But for now, we've got a 1-1 draw in the first match of a long season.

Tags: Apple, Hewlett Packard, Intel, Market Capitalisation, IBM

iPhone Sales Numbers - BEFORE Q3 results

2007-07-25T14:53:00.000+01:00

I'm writing this BEFORE Apple announces today's earnings, but AFTER the crazy market/media reaction to news that AT&T "only" activated 146,000 iPhones by 30th June.

What IS amazing is that in 30 hours, from 6pm Friday to midnight Saturday, 146,000 iPhones were purchased, taken home, unboxed, plugged into a computer, and then successfully activated. Had anyone suggested such numbers even a day or two before the iPhone was released, they would have been considered an optimist. Now, some are comparing the 146,000 number to some mythical 1million figure some analysts ended up speculating on.

As far as I can recall, I have seen few analyst projections of 1million iPhones and certainly not even in the few day initial period. I have seen numbers as low as 50,000 (originally from Shawn Wu of American Technology Research, and general Apple bull) to perhaps 350,000 from Goldman Sachs. Some of those numbers were then doubled AFTER the weekend (to 700,000 in the case of Goldman Sachs).

But remember here, the weekend includes a Sunday - only the second full shopping day the iPhone was on sale. How many iPhones could not be activated at first (certainly a few by some rumours)? How many iPhones did not get activated by the Saturday evening because the person hadn't had time, was keeping the iPhone as a present, or whatever other excuse? How many iPhones were ordered from the online stores on those days for later delivery?

And, what is success anyway? Is failure just the inability to hit whatever highest number some analyst (perhaps a naysayer anyway) set just to create a headline?

At 146,000 iPhones sold in 30 hours, Apple and AT&T created a revenue stream of $292m to share between them over 24 months.

Today, Apple will report its own financial figures for the last quarter (its financial close period which began BEFORE the iPhone was released is the fundamental reason it has not been legally able to comment on sales before this time). Apple may also (like AT&T) choose to report just the 30 hour period (or perhaps 33 hour period in its case being based on the West Coast). But, even in this period it will include over the counter sales - not activations. It may also account for sales via the AT&T store differently - as these essentially are sales as a wholesaler of the product.

My wild guess at this point is that Apple will report sales of around 225,000 or more for the 30 hour period. And, if they are to report sales for the first week, or first month (we're just 2 days away from that point), we will genuinely see that they will have between 400,000/700,000 and 500,000/1million iPhones in people's hands today (firstweektarget/firstmonth target). I suspect Apple's control of PR extends to its agreement with AT&T and allows it to publish the first important headline numbers for sales.

Sales of more than 500,000 iPhones will be a 2 year revenue stream of at least $1billion between Apple and AT&T (they are currently the sole retailers - so no other retailers to split with). Not bad for one month!

Contrast this with Zune and XBox360.

Assuming Zune sales so far of 1.2m, and even assuming full retail price of $249, this is $298m in revenue - almost exactly equal to the revenue from the 146,000 AT&T activations. Only this has taken Microsoft not 30 hours, but more than 8 months. It is also a widely held belief that Microsoft has not SOLD 1.2m Zunes, but shipped them. Many remain unsold on shelves. And, there has also been some significant discounting from the $249 price, to say nothing of the retail margin.

XBox360 has been with us for about 20 months. 11.6m units shipped (but not necessarily sold). Assume price of $299 again, and we reach $3.468b. Then take the $1.2bn cost of repairs announced recently out of that - and we have a number approaching $2bn - for 20 months!

I know which company I would be betting on today.

We will see crazy headlines today, and we will see unpredictable market reaction whatever the numbers. But what is already clear is that Apple has a phenomenal hit on its hands. Reviews have been overwhelmingly outstanding. Sales have been very robust indeed - whatever these sky high forecasts make you think the boundary of success is. Apple is only to be praised for seemingly being able to just about keep up with demand (something in the past it has not been good at, with fair criticism from the same quarters who now say any unsold stock is a failure!) Any commentary on today's numbers that doesn't recognised the success for what it is - both in technical and business terms is very delusional (or in the pockets of some of Apple's and AT&T's competitors).

I'll be writing on the financial numbers after they come out. I'll be paying particular attention to what the sales of iPods and Macs have been in the last 12 months. But, if the market reaction is negative today, look at this as your best time to pick up Apple stock for some time.

Disclosure: the author holds 600 shares of Apple, and last time he bought shares was 11th July 2006 - a little over 12 months ago when they were as low as $54. I hope you followed my advice then!.

Tags: Apple, iPhone, Microsoft, Sales, AT&T

Pathetic Observer non-apology

2007-07-22T09:56:00.000+01:00

I posted about this a couple of weeks ago.

Today, buried well inside the paper and after the editorials and most commentaries was a "clarification."

Really, this is just not good enough. Speaking with friends last night, they are strongly influenced by such reporting (which was of course copied and run by the other mainstream press groups). We have trusted our newspapers to give fair and balanced reports based on fact. This article and its subsequent coverage in the other press has set back public understanding of this subject by several years and unreasonably made the public question science even more, ironically when it is proper science that is the only way to truth in this, rather than the mumbo-jumbo "science" practised by Wakefield. Will The Observer make an apology over their sycophantic piece on him from the same edition after he is found guilty of professional misconduct by the BMA, as he surely will be? There are serious consequences of this public misunderstanding.

I will leave it to Ben Goldacre (Bad Science columnist at the Guardian) to give his verdict on the Observer "clarification", with suitable links to the whole sorry story. (Ben, I don't think they made a hash of apologising! They didn't apologise at all for the article and the mistakes - only a weak apology for not trying harder to contact one of the people they quoted! Surely, an apology for actually quoting somebody you didn't speak to wouldn't have been too difficult would it as a start?)

I am still considering abandoning my subscription to the Observer over this. Today's article makes that more likely not less. They had a chance to set the record straight, but all they've done is to compound their mistakes and demonstrate that they either don't get it, or don't want to get it.

UPDATE: I have indeed cancelled my subscription for the Observer. It doesn't save me very much - just about £10 per year, as I will now revert to just a Guardian subscription. I have also complained to the Readers' Editor. I feel better!

Tags: Autism, The Observer, MMR, Andrew Wakefield, Ben Goldacre

Surreal Experience

2007-07-22T09:26:00.000+01:00

On Friday, we witnessed the most torrential rain I've ever seen in the UK - a truly massive amount of water descending in London in just an hour or so. We spent several hours sorting out the problems caused by an overflowing gully to the flat downstairs.

Having checked traffic reports which seemed to be generally ok (c'mon Highways Agency/AA/RAC/BBC etc can't you do better than this?), we headed off for the weekend at 7pm on a journey that usually takes us 2 hours. We arrived 6 hours later, but at least we arrived. We passed possibly 300-400 vehicles which had been left stranded at the side of the roads all the way from Swindon to Ross-on-Wye. We went under the M5 motorway, which at almost midnight was at a complete standstill. While we had numerous in-water experiences of our own, we probably didn't have anything worse than about 300mm. I think had we been earlier, we'd have been stranded like many of the others.

Here's a link to some photos on the BBC site by local people, the first one being the M50 motorway very close to us. Look also at number 37 to see it getting even worse! Here are some from Gloucestershire - including underwater Cotswold villages which we passed close to.

As my partner Sue pointed out, weather is a great equaliser. Among the stranded cars was a rather distraught Bentley!

What a summer this is turning out to be!

Tags: Flood, London, Hereford, Photos

XBox360 Double Whammy

2007-07-20T11:33:00.000+01:00

The news on XBox 360 failures is truly quite amazing - easily on a par with the Sony laptop battery recall episode last year. Amazingly Microsoft's stock has hardly budged. There are very few companies in the world that could withstand a write-off of over $1bn so easily. Yet, I don't think Microsoft has yet done the right thing by its users. I think this post makes many reasonable points. Microsoft should do a recall and fix this problem for good. However, I would say that, based on comments attributed to Microsoft VP Peter Moore (see same link),

In our interview with Microsoft corporate vice president Peter Moore, he pointedly declined to offer specifics about what was causing the problems on the grounds that he is not a technical person, nor would he answer whether the flaws should be attributed to design or manufacturing.

it's not entirely clear that Microsoft has a complete solution to this problem even now.

However, it was not this particular issue I wanted to post about. It seems that Microsoft used that tried and trusted PR technique of burying bad news on a day of other bad news. In this case, its own bad news. Hardly commented on was the amazing confession that they had failed to hit their target of selling 12million XBox 360's by end of June 2007. Maybe those that read this saw that they had sold 11.6m, so it wasn't after all that far off the target. But let's look a little closer at this. Only in January this year did Microsoft revise its target from 13-15m units to 12m. So, it is now at least 1.4m below the target it had just 6 months ago, and perhaps up to 3.4m below. So, it's not 0.4m of 12m (just over 3%) but between 11 and 22% below.

There's another way to look at this, too. By the end of December, Microsoft had sold 10.3m XBoxes. It has since sold just 1.3m boxes. Instead of the 3-5m for that period (as per Microsoft's own December targets), it has sold between 1/4 and 1/2 of that number. This is the truly amazing statistic and something I'm surprised has not been more widely commented on. During this time, Microsoft introduced the XBox 360 Elite, and it has had ample product to sell globally. Despite this, its sales have been less in the most recent 6 months than the first 3 months of its life when it was limited to the US market and very supply-constrained. These statistics are available here.

Now, in fact, things are not as bad as this, but only if you understand the phenomenon of channel stuffing - whereby a vendor records sales by stuffing products on shelves even though they remain unsold. This is widely reported as how Microsoft account for both XBox and Zune sales and why individual figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt. It is highly likely Microsoft stuffed the retail channel with lots of XBox 360's leading up to Christmas last year, perhaps so it could meet its target then of selling 10m by the end of 2006. So, either you think Microsoft missed both targets, and engages in this practice, or you think it only missed the current one - by a large margin. It's pretty bad either way (in fact a cynical person might suggest that channel stuffing is continuing and that the situation is even worse than the numbers suggest). And, a nasty by-product of that strategy is if you were to buy an XBox 360 today, it is quite likely you may be buying one made sometime last year and subject to the potential failures noted. As Microsoft have not published serial number ranges, this makes it pretty hard to guess what you're getting.

(As an aside, I don't believe Apple can account for sales in the same way due to its own retail presence which accounts for a significant chunk of sales. At the very least, I believe that Apple would not be able to call an iPod sale via its own online or retail stores a sale until it was sold to a real customer).

Really, this XBox 360 sales fiasco is a BIG deal, and it should have been picked up as such. I am somewhat surprised in all honesty, as I had expected the XBox 360 to be a winner. Back in 2005 before any of the new generation consoles was released I posited that Sony would be the loser and that it seemed Nintendo might defy the odds and with the XBox 360 would be the other winner (not a bad forecast for a non-gamer!). At this point in time, both the high-end consoles are struggling badly, despite (or perhaps because of) the huge companies behind these products. There has been just one winner so far - the company that focused not on stuffing untried/unproven/unwanted technology in to a device then subsidising its high price, but on delivering a value product that consumers adored, could afford and all the while making sure that it makes a profit from each unit sold. Both Microsoft and Sony are behaving almost as state-sponsored monopolies delivering what they THINK the public want, using the vast resources of their other monopoly/semi-monopoly businesses to get by. Microsoft's failings have opened the door to Sony who, while being late to the party, at least have the better-specified box. Instead, they should have been dead and buried. A real price cut from Sony (not the reduced price for discontinued models) at this time might allow it yet to beat Microsoft.

Some will say that new games about to be delivered for the XBox 360 and other developments will rescue it from this lull. But unless Microsoft sells at least 10m more units before the end of the year, its shareholders should be calling for it to pull the plug. Even then it will have TOTAL sales for 2 years of around the same as the iPod for just Christmas quarter 2006. Indeed, its own sales for this calendar year will be barely above 2006 calendar year sales. The supposed "future of gaming consoles" selling less in its second full year than its first is a pretty bad sign.

Update: Is this in fact a triple whammy with reports that Robbie Bach (head of the MS division that includes XBox) sold over $6m of Microsoft stock just a few weeks before these announcements? Or a quadruple whammy to include this week's news that Peter Moore (see above) has left?

Tags: Microsoft, XBox360, Nintendo, Wii, Sony, PS3

Hobsbog....An Admission

2007-07-19T17:44:00.000+01:00

I have been overcome with admiration for the string of Cabinet ministers who have come out today and admitted they smoked cannabis. What guts to come out right after the first admission from Jacqui Smith (who at least came out first). I'm 110% sure that opportunism was not a factor in these new admissions - just honesty and integrity.

I would therefore like to take this opportunity to admit that I, too, have smoked cannabis on one occasion in San Francisco, and on one occasion in Amsterdam. I did this purely to ensure the smooth conclusion to business deals by showing my empathy with the real criminals who were obviously addicted and probably dealers in their spare time. I absolutely did not inhale, and I was not affected by it in any pleasurable way. I would never do it again, and I hope those that do now are put away for a longtime as they should know better, especially now as the Independent has told them it's a BAD thing.

< /sarcasm> but unfortunately not < /end mass hypocrisy from mainstream media and political establishment>

The British Press...(continued)

2007-07-09T06:51:00.000+01:00

I've run a number of posts here about how badly our newspapers report on certain subjects. Yesterday, however, we reached a new low, with two sickening articles in the Observer about MMR and autism, including a cringing interview with the person who has done most to spread FUD, and consequently led to increased deaths and serious disabilities via higher (perhaps quasi-epidemic) measles and rubella infection rates. The main article was the front page headline.

I almost cancelled my Guardian/Observer subscription on the spot, but then how would I get my regular dose of ire?

I will not go into this subject in too much detail here, as there are far more qualified people, and better writers to boot covering this development.

I will instead first link to Ben Goldacre's Bad Science post which covers the developments pretty well, links to other stories, and has some interesting developments (including one of the two scientists the Observer quoted as "privately supporting an MMR link" apparently accused the Observer of fabricating comments, and therefore presumably leaving the Observer with just one of the seven academics thinking this way. Evidence shown on Ben's post seems to show this "academic" as somewhat unhinged and unprofessional at the very least.

Other links to follow include:
A reasoned article at Breath Spa for Kids
Or have a look at the journalist's qualifications for writing about this subject!

Also look out for articles at The Holford Watch
- an anti-dote site to one of the more ridiculous "media nutritionists" who pass themselves off (to the gullible press) as scientists.

MMR WAS a valid idea to be researched as involved in (some cases of) autism. But it has been researched ad nauseam and shown not to be involved AT ALL. The damage done because of the insistence on this link is severe around the world and especially in this country. What is so sad to see is how the supposedly-intelligent broadsheets run with this stuff.

Perhaps, those who believe in good science reporting should complain to the Press Complaints Commission?

Incidentally, if anyone dares to say the Observer is balanced because Goldacre writes a column for the (sister) Guardian, then please also show me when he's been on the front page, or where an editorial has taken up his piece to correct an earlier sare and FUD article?

Tags: Autism, The Observer, MMR, Wakefield, Bad Science

iPhone in Europe

2007-07-05T18:52:00.000+01:00

Just one comment on the plentiful rumours each day about exactly which carrier is going to get the exclusive rights for iPhone in Europe (one day it's Vodafone, then it's T-Mobile, maybe in Germany, maybe not), then it's O2 in UK, Orange in France....

Most of the rumours say it's going to be the same 2.5g device as in the US. But I'm going out on a limb here and say that it will NOT be that. As I understand it, only Orange supports Edge in Europe. Other carriers have either slower 2G (GPRS) data networks, or 3G networks.

Given the lack of availability of wi-fi hotspots (at least for free) in much of Europe, the importance of 3G (or at least fast networks) is going to be MORE important in Europe.

My prediction is that Apple will release the 3G iPhone in Europe. At the very least, I do not believe they will release a slower one than the Edge version in the US. In making this prediction, I am betting against the supposedly more informaed Times, FT etc all reporting on this matter so certainly.

On a similar theme, while Apple appears to have agreed a 2 year exclusive with AT&T in the US, I do NOT believe they will agree such an exclusive in European markets. This is because they are more fragmented than the US (eg. typically 5 providers in many markets often with similar shares). Sure, there may be country exclusives. But I don't believe they'll be for much longer than a supply shortage would exist.

The mistake most media is making is that the deal and product that is in the US is the deal and product that will be made here. I don't think it is right to make that assumption. Sure, there will be similarities and the AT&T deal gives us a number of pointers. But no more.

What is important in all this is that Apple holds their ground and has driven the service providers so that they do not cripple the device. I'll be posting soon on why the Nokia N80 I got last year is the most disappointing phone I've had and how the UI on the iPhone trounces it.

Tags: Apple, iPhone, Europe, Orange, Vodafone, O2, T-Mobile

The definitive iPhone review?

2007-07-03T16:23:00.000+01:00

Trust AnandTech and Anand Lai Shimpi himself to write what is probably the definitive iPhone review - all 20 pages of it.

What I like about this site is that they do a thorough job of every test they do. Second, they have no particular agenda other than doing a great job. This is not a pro-Apple site per se (though Anand did I believe switch to Mac last year).

If you thought the pro-Apple journalists such as Walt Mossberg and David Pogue are not independent enough, you should certainly read this one.

On a related note, I think this article at Blackfriars marketing gives great insight into Apple's business strategy. Admittedly unlike the iPod (which Apple didn't have to bring to market), they were always going to have to build a phone as a defensive measure. What is so remarkable is that they've entered this market and turned it inside out. They say the best form of defense is attack, and this product will define the starting point of a long-overdue period of innovation in both products and services for the mobile industry.

Tags: Apple, iPhone, Anandtech

Waterfield Designs Laptop Luggage - The Best?

2007-06-18T19:37:00.000+01:00

One of the pleasures of buying a new laptop is looking for new luggage to carry it in!

In my case, I need a versatile arrangement that gives my laptop protection when it's travelling with me on my Brompton bike. Occasionally, I might not have my bike, so need something a bit more businesslike. And then, there's the weekend trips. In short, I need something for every occasion.

Over 4 years ago, I bought a Waterfield Designs sleeve case for the 15" Titanium Powerbook. It has done great service and still looks as good as new. It was able to handle my slightly wider PowerbookG4 also, and so it has been used almost every day since. I got a few additions with the bag to handle other goodies too. I'm particularly pleased as to how the sleevecase has provided protection as I've ridden over bad roads around London. Apart from the quality and style, what has stood out for me with Waterfield was the initial buying experience. I got quick answers to my questions, and the most amazing thing was that after I ordered the stuff, it arrived less than 48 hours after I ordered it. That was San Francisco to London! Unbelievable.

So, while casting glances at other luggage, it was only natural I consider Waterfield Designs for my new MacBook Pro (17"). The range has been updated gradually over the years but still covers the same sort of needs. This time, I decided to add a flap to the sleevecase for those odd occasions I may just have the case and it's raining. I also got tempted by the combination deals, and decided that a Cozmo bag in addition to the sleevecase would provide a solution to every need. With this option, an extra gear pouch is included for free. With the current dollar/pound rate the whole package was pretty attractive - even with shipping, so I settled on that.

Again I got quick and clear answers to my questions. This time I took a slightly cheaper option on shipping (I still don't have the MacBook Pro). I still received the whole order in 3 days flat!

The verdict: Fantastic! These bags are really well made (they are made in San Francisco, not in some cheap labour country). They are well-thought-out with great details, and accents. They work well individually or in combination, and I know they will last. They are practical and protective, but also look great. If I need it, I also know I'll get great service. I can't recommend these guys highly enough. If you need laptop luggage, don't just look at the Apple Store.

Aside: The one frustration with packing my laptop is our stupid UK plug. It is so large in every dimension that it always causes something to bulge. Why can't someone invent a foldable UK plug whereby the prongs can fold away neatly for carrying?

Tags: Apple, MacBook Pro, Waterfield Designs, SF Bags, Cozmo, Luggage

Vista Marketshare

2007-06-15T15:39:00.000+01:00

In my previous recent posts I've mentioned about my purchase of XP Pro for use on my about-to-be-delivered MacBook Pro.

I bought my copy at Amazon.co.uk and I thought I'd look at what was/wasn't selling on Amazon. I was amazed to see that XP Pro was indeed the top selling Microsoft OS on this site in 11th place (on all software titles). The first version of Vista was in 30th place. Only one other copy of Vista was in the top 50.

Wondering if this was a UK phenomenon, I popped over to the US Amazon site. Similar situation. This time, XP Home was in the top 25 at 15th place, and XP Pro somewhere in the 25-50 range. The first version of Vista was at 62.

I checked also at NewEgg a popular site for system builders, and it seems again that more people are buying XP than are buying Vista. Now some might argue the fact that Vista has so many versions dilutes it's position. But really there are also many versions of XP (Home/Pro, 32bit/64bit, OEM, Full,etc), and the gap in the position of XP and Vista is so significant that I do not believe that sum(copies of Vista) > sum(copies of XP).

I have always expected Vista to be a success, and I recognise that there is quite a difference in the PC world than the Mac world for doing upgrades etc. But to think that 6 months after the full introduction of Vista, when given the choice, more people are buying a 6 year old OS seems very strange indeed. That is a sad reflection on Microsoft's strategy and something that should cause them long-term worry. I know for sure that 6 months after Leopard is (eventually) released, the same will not be true on the Mac platform.

As a final aside, I did this check a day after Amazon.com had introduced a Leopard pre-order and was amazed to see Leopard in 1st place across ALL software, and Leopard family pack in 3rd place. Not only that, but even MacOS Tiger (10.4) was ahead of any copy of Vista (in 55th place)!

A visitor from outerspace would make a very different conclusion on the operating system market than is reality if presented with these figures. But, would they infer a more accurate view of the future?

Tags: Apple, Microsoft, Vista, XP, Mac OS X

Why XP Pro over Vista?

2007-06-15T15:33:00.000+01:00

In my previous post I discussed my purchase of XP Pro. Why not go for Vista, you may ask? Is it your dislike of the Redmond monopoly again getting in the way of rational decisions?

In fact, I came very close to purchasing Vista. I wanted to see what the very best Microsoft can do is like. I also felt that a more recent OS would be more secure (and also require fewer changes - I'm not sure how many security downloads my copy of XP Pro will require immediately after install).

But in the end, Vista would have required me setting aside at least 20GB of my laptop hard disk - something that I don't want to give up. (XP should take as little as 5GB comfortably).

In addition, Vista does not work well today as far as I can tell with Virtualisation applications - especially if you also want to use a bootcamp partition. Part of this comes down to the new activation requirements in Vista which are torturous. While legal under license terms to do Virtualisation + Bootcamp (as far as I can tell) with the higher end versions, it is not practical to do so today. Also, the virtualisation solutions do not support Aero yet, so I wouldn't have been getting the full Vista experience except in Bootcamp (and probably quite hard to change between the two).

Finally, Vista is more expensive than XP Pro, and for the amount of use it will get, is just not worth it for me. I would have probably got the Ultimate version (for business use and virtualisation), but not used most of the features.

Coming up - an observation on Vista take-up.

Tags: Apple, Microsoft, Vista, XP, Mac OS X

I feel dirty...

2007-06-15T15:21:00.000+01:00

Not because I haven't blogged for almost a month - though that, I should also be ashamed of - but, because I've just received delivery of my license for Microsoft XP Pro. Yes, you read that right.

But, do not worry, it's all in the best possible taste. I have ordered a 17" MacBook Pro and am expecting delivery next week. I will be running Windows XP on it both via BootCamp and via virtualisation. At this point, it looks like I'll be going down the VMWare Fusion route, rather than Parallels. I think VMWare is being aggressive in pricing, support and adding features as it comes from behind vs Parallels. We'll see.

I don't expect to use XP much, but I have some home automation components that haven't been updated since I stopped using an old Toshiba Libretto. My Virtual PC copies have never really worked on these items due to poor performance when doing serial operations.

I also wanted to have XP around to experiment a bit as well as to demonstrate to the great unwashed the flexibility of the Mac platform these days.

Looking back, I have bought a lot of Microsoft software over the years ranging from Multiplan, Excel/Word, followed of course by many copies of Office and Office X. I've also had Windows 95 and 98 via copies of Softwindows and Virtual PC. But these became poor when Mac OS X came along (I had to reboot into OS9 to get reasonable VPC performance).

Later this year I will undoubtedly purchase Office 2008 for Mac. I fully expect XP Pro and then Office 2008 to be the last Microsoft OS and Applications that I ever buy again.

Next up... Why XP Pro over Vista?

Tags: Apple, Microsoft, Vista, XP, Mac OS X, MacBook Pro

How reasonable is this?

2007-05-15T20:48:00.000+01:00

I cannot believe the BBC being dragged down to this level.

How can you name a potential suspect in a case like this? A suspect who police say there is not enough evidence to arrest (should they even be saying anything)? What sort of society have we moved into?

Of course, it's not just the BBC - it seems there isn't a major media outlet that hasn't been party to this. Anyone who has participated in this "outing" should be ashamed. This is no better than medieval justice.

I don't always agree with Andrew Collins on his views (in fact, rarely), but I think this blog post sums up my views well on this whole sad affair, and it all seems to be heading in even worse directions.

WMA RIP Follow-up - H.264 to kill VC-1?

2007-04-20T12:36:00.000+01:00

Following on from my recent post in which I claimed Windows Media Audio (WMA) was effectively dead and that I hoped the battleground would now move on to ensuring the same happened to WMV (by a hopefully victorious by MPEG-4 Part10/AVC/H.264), I was encouraged by two pieces of news last week.

The first was a report over at The Register about how Microsoft had got "mugged" over VC-1 codec patent terms by the other companies who had claims to some patents that were part of this standard (VC-1 is a fundamental part of WMV). In essence, Microsoft gets less than many of its competitors for every VC-1 license. As Microsoft gives this away in many of its products, it actually costs it money. The article also argued how H.264 had become the preferred codec for many people. I am seeing this mentioned increasingly in blog postings etc.

I can't comment on the accuracy of this article, though the author's knowledge seems pretty deep on the subject.

However in the same week, Microsoft itself released a long-expected XBox 360 update. One of its features includes H.264 playback capability. (A side note for AppleTV bashers - XBox360 also only does 2-channel audio playback!)

I think this move is equivalent to Microsoft's inclusion of AAC playback on its Zune player and is indeed a smart move. With Sony using MPEG video standards also, and of course AppleTV, iPod and other Apple products leveraging this standard, it seems to me that Microsoft is also acknowledging that at the very least, it must let the market decide, and that it cannot impose VC-1 on the world.

Those who produce content in H.264 can easily supply such content to iPod owners, Mac owners, AppleTV owners, Sony PS3 and PSP owners, many Nokia phones, as well as to XBox360 owners. Unfortunately, due to resolution and other differences in device capabilities, there may still have to be multiple versions of the content, but use of a single standard will certainly simplify things for many content providers (and users). It would thus seem a suicidal move for a content company to produce just VC-1 material and limit its market. Likewise, a company producing a playback device would be foolish not to provide for H.264, and may consider cutting WMV/VC-1 support.

It is still too early to decide this matter, but I think it is certainly a move in the right direction. If both WMA and WMV's influences are curtailed I think it's a great win for the consumer. These were Microsoft's opportunity to impose the next lock-ins on users (after Office formats were opened up), and competition authorities had failed to do anything about it. I personally believe it is lock-ins such as these that have prolonged Microsoft's massive hold on the computer user (how could any business user NOT use MS Office?). In this post-PC world of many and varied devices, Microsoft will have to compete on capability alone - though with the backing of it's huge reserves and user inertia to help it along the way, it is still very much able to flex its muscles. That's good news for Microsoft's competitors, and it's even better news for us consumers. In the end, perhaps the market has done the job that the competition authorities were unwilling and incapable of doing*. It has taken too long and there are legacy issues (eg BBC tying itself to Microsoft's "standards" for some of its initial services to consumers thus locking out Mac and Linux users, while adopting H.264 for others). But, it is at least happening.

What do you think? Is H.264 going to become the de facto codec for video for the next generation of devices? Can/will Microsoft impose its own standard after all? Is something else going to do it (Flash, DivX, etc)?

* Footnote: Of course, there is a counter argument, that it is not so much the market that made it happen, but Microsoft's own internal failings. After all with WMA, WMV, Windows Mobile, Windows CE, XBox, Vista in every flavour imaginable etc. it certainly ATTEMPTED to cover every base. If Microsoft had executed well, it would surely have nailed this and the competition authorities would be spending the next 5-10 years trying to unravel it.

Tags: Apple, WMV, H.264, VC-1, Microsoft

Hilarious Joy of Tech Cartoon

2007-04-04T16:06:00.000+01:00

The Joy of Tech cartoons have been excelling themselves lately with some very witty content.

Yesterday's cartoon about reaction to the EMI/Apple announcement is most amusing.

Tags: Apple, EMI, DRM, Geek Culture

British press reaction to EMI/Apple

2007-04-03T16:35:00.000+01:00

I've stuck by my pledge to steer clear of British newspapers' technology sections. And a slight decrease in blood pressure has ensued.

However, I couldn't help come across the Guardian Editorial's curmudgeonly and ignorant commentary on the EMI/Apple announcement I covered yesterday.

Who gains from this deal? Well, the public does — a bit (my emphasis).

The public is the LARGEST beneficiary of this deal, although perhaps that is only strictly true if it is repeated by most/all of the other labels. The significance of this deal to the public is HUGE. The whole DRM edifice has had a key structural pillar removed and it will surely crumble. The key beneficiary from this has to be the law-abiding, music-lover. The secondary beneficiaries are those who innovate to make the most of this development. Apple and EMI may be two of those companies, and the bricks and mortar retailers may be the losers. But those outcomes are far from certain.

Until now, what are called digital-rights management (DRM) restrictions meant that you could buy an EMI track from Apple's music store — but you didn't really own it.

You owned it then as much as you owned it now. You could in theory (and legally) do the same with it then as you can now. Just now, it will be easier and potentially with a higher quality.

Some will not be happy at paying a premium for the privilege, especially as many smaller labels and online shops already sell music free of copy protection — and cheaper, too.

You have a choice. And if you buy an album, you pay no premium. If you buy a single you have both flexibility AND better quality. And you can move from lower quality to higher quality/noDRM by paying the difference (no additional penalty), just as you can move from buying one or two tracks to buying the whole album at no penalty (due to recent "Complete my album" feature). I am over the moon that both the restrictions are removed AND the quality is improved (the latter I did not expect).

Mr Jobs has only recently joined the chorus calling for DRM-free tracks, but this deal makes him look like a consumer champion.

Of course, Jobs' actions for Apple should be in Apple's interests as a business entity. But please name me someone/anyone in the entrenched music industry who has made this issue clearer? Do you ignore his claims that this is the way Apple wanted to do it from the start? The apparent DRM lock-in to iPod came only because of the runaway success of the iTunes/iPod phenomenon. Plenty of other companies could have made this happen then. And of course, it is not a lock-in. Jobs pointed out the futility of operating 2 business models - physical and download - in which the physical is unencumbered and the download has been loaded with restrictions.

Jobs IS a consumer champion in that he has done more for the music-loving public than any other CEO involved in the business. He has been rewarded for that by the public who have overwhelmingly chosen his products. He has been pilloried by a select group of press (concentrated somewhat in UK and Europe) who somehow resent this success. Please score Jobs next to Gates, Bronfman (Warner), Vivendi/Universal, Sony (home of Rootkit), etc. Please suggest an industry figure who should be added to that list ahead of Jobs?

Apple probably will lose some sales from iTunes, but its iPods are the real money-spinner.

I guarantee that Apple will increase its sales from iTunes as a result of this arrangement. This announcement is about levelling the playing field between physical and download. Apple's marketshare of downloads MAY decrease, but it's share of the overall music market will undoubtedly rise as barriers to buying download vs digital (or pirated of course) have been significantly changed. This one statement proves how little the Guardian understands the business it's writing about.

Furthermore, the move does NOTHING directly to help iPod sales. In fact, if anything it gives people a freedom to move away from iPod if they have (in rare cases) a substantial investment in music downloaded via iTunes. It will help iPod sales ONLY if the public perceive that the extra freedoms justify more iPod purchases either absolutely or at the expense of other players. Jobs is brave enough to see that anything that benefits the consumer CAN benefit his company if they can react well. Compare that to our Redmond-friends who take the view that the more they benefit the established oligopolies, the more they will benefit.

And, as Jupiter Research has pointed out, the format the unprotected tracks will be sold in is not supported by many digital-music players. Mr Jobs was very keen yesterday to point out that DRM-free music can be played on non-Apple machines. But that requires other manufacturers to license the technology first. So the iPod, which has already sold 90m worldwide, keeps its chokehold on the music industry for now.

Again this is just bollocks. Here is what the premier Jupiter analyst Michael Garten berg had to say. My interpretation of Michael's views are far closer to what I've written here, than the Guardian have interpreted (and I see no mention of what they quote in Michael's post).Perhaps the Guardian were the "media outlet" referred to in Michael's later post - When reporters set agendas which is truly hilarious (if not frightening)? Michael of course was a (brief) Microsoft employee, and is considered the leading Jupiter analyst in this area.

The Guardian has also written in such a way that it implies Apple is the one that grants that license or (at the very least) that there are restrictive issues involved in getting that license. It confuses the issues of the format of the tracks, the restrictions involved and the technology of the players. From a player perspective, there are many players that support the MPEG-4 Advanced Audio Codec standard (note lack of word Apple there), that Apple has CHOSEN to support and LICENSED to offer. I do not know what the licensing terms are for AAC and how they compare for instance to either MP3 or WMA. But AFAIK, anyone can license AAC should they wish to. My last 2 Nokia phones do that, so does much Sony and Sony Ericsson equipment. Even the Microsoft Zune will play AAC! Companies that have chosen not to, have made that decision deliberately and they are the fools.

If Apple had chosen to use MP3, it would have been dropping the quality of material or increasing file size even further by using 16 year old technology. AAC is the logical and approved heir to MP3. It would be like Apple bringing back the 5 1/4" floppy drive to support the laggards.

If Apple had chosen to use WMA, it would have been choosing a proprietary (though licensable) format locking people into the business practices of that well-known and convicted monopolist that is Microsoft. WMA has also been shown in numerous tests to be inferior to MPEG-4 AAC (indeed only WMA Pro which is not used by most players comes close to AAC in quality). You can find links to this on Wikipedia as easily as I did and make your own mind up. Apple has successfully taken on the proprietary WMA standard and defeated it to our long term benefit. Not by imposing it's own proprietary standard but by choosing an open standard. Try to imagine the parallel universe that is WMA-dominated (Microsoft rights, viruses, incompatibilities, etc) and you will surely see this significance. Apple was ALONE in this fight. The competition authorities should be turning on the companies that insist on licensing a proprietary standard. Any music sold in WMA format for instance should be pounced on as anti-consumer whether DRM'd or not.

In 5 years time, people will all be using the open MPEG-4 AAC with just legacy use of MP3 and maybe WMA. We will all have benefitted from that. It will be because of Apple's choices that this is the result. No other company has done more to push that better, open standard than they have (watch the same happening for MPEG-4/AVC/H.264 video).

With this move (and assuming others follow), Apple has broken the tight linkage between the selling of music online and the iPod. They had earned that linkage through doing a great job, and they have not abused that position (yet). The opportunity is out there now for other companies to innovate and offer great download services. Or, for others to innovate and offer great players that allow people to use everything they'd already bought on iTunes or used on their iPod. Or for others to provide an even better service than iTunes/iPod. There are now far less restrictions at least as far as iPod/iTunes goes. I will be able to buy my music from anyone who supports MP3 or MPEG-4 AAC and use it on my iPod or other device that supports either MPEG-4 or MP3 (you should be easily able to downconvert from AAC to MP3 with imperceptible quality loss from a 256kbps AAC file, compared with from CD). I will also be able to enjoy my purchased music from anyone who provides a player which supports these (open) standards. Sorry about the WMA-retards. You got what you deserved.

Apple has offered others the opportunity to get into the iPod world. Sure you could do that through eMusic and a few others. But they were limited by the major labels insisting on DRM. Without DRM, anyone is free to offer iTunes OR iPod users material if the licensee agrees. And this is what it has always been about - the licensee. Apple has opened the download market to anyone and there are no restrictions for those people entering the market - at least any that are governed by Apple (contrast this with Microsoft/WMA). It has done that because it has its sights set on the music market as a whole. As I said in the previous post, this is about having 30% of the music market rather than 70% of the music download market which itself is only 10% of the overall music market.

It is up to the consumer to vote with their wallets. They can support EMI's choice - either with Apple or without, and send a message to the other major labels. If enough consumers withhold support from the other labels by refusing to purchase that material (remember to boycott the CD's too if you really want change!), then perhaps the others will get that message. I, for one, will support EMI's move by choosing some of their material to buy online (it's a pity that it's so difficult with this label's rather poor roster of artists!).

I applaud Jobs and Nicoli for their actions. Sure they are self-serving. But they are self-serving because they embrace change and innovation, not because they preserve the status quo. One (Apple) is done from strength, the other (EMI) from weakness, perhaps. But they are still bold moves. WE are the main beneficiaries. Let's seize that. And, to the Guardian, perhaps if you can't comment gracefully or accurately on news you seem to have no grasp of you should perhaps just keep quiet?

Tags: Apple, EMI, DRM, WMA, AAC, iPod, Guardian

WMA RIP

2007-04-02T13:52:00.000+01:00

Well, not exactly RIP - Rest In Hell maybe more appropriate.

Today's announcement is a great demonstration that Steve Jobs' Apple has learned from its past mistakes about failing to open up key technologies at critical times.

For consumers, the great advantage of this announcement, beyond of course the obvious DRM and quality issue is that it will move the world towards an MPEG-4 world. That is an open world - not governed by any single company. Perhaps people (and journalists) will finally twig that neither of the A's in the synonym AAC stand for a computer company! For Apple, the victory is that the world did not end up with WMA and a comfy lock-in between the content providers and Microsoft dictating just about everything about how, when, where and for how long we could use the material we'd bought. Essentially global adoption of WMA would have squeezed Apple and indeed any other non-Microsoft device out of the equation. The significance of this cannot be underestimated, but I suspect it will never be seen that way as we have no insight into the parallel universe in which WMA took over. And, note to Norway, along the way, not a single consumer has been harmed in the making of this story!

Just as importantly, it should cement MPEG-4 as the standard rather than leaving the lowest common denominator (MP3 - a 16 year old format) as the "future" of sound. Most listening tests give AAC-coded material the best possible ratings of any lossy format with well-coded 128kbps AAC close to lossless. (If you don't believe me, check the Dolby site, some audiophile sites, and Wikipedia, who can point to these tests). Only the very highest levels of MP3 encoding and WMA Pro (which is not in common use in players) even come close to AAC at the same bitrates.

I've no doubt that Apple will continue to sell content ONLY in AAC format, and so any stragglers in the portable player market would be foolish not to support it. And furthermore, many music stores would be best advised to adopt it in order to maximise the music quality for the same bitrate (when compared with MP3). Those using WMA will be faced with the choice of using MP3 or AAC if they wish their music to be compatible with the dominant music player on the market today. Apple's choice of (and pushing of) the latest open MPEG standards has paid off this time and we are all beneficiaries.

There is of course the slightly inconvenient issue for such stores of having still to support DRM'd music until the other companies relent. That is an advantage that Apple has squeezed by this move. But this is great news for independent stores and labels who will make the most of this.

For Apple, apart from the defeat of WMA, they open up the digital download market for iPod users to many more companies, so on the one hand they would seem to be loosening their hold on the digital download market. But, as Steve pointed out in his "Thoughts on Music", it's more important for the digital market to be on a level playing field with CD. Apple have music retailers such as Walmart in its sights. It is not looking backwards at the download competition (it regularly compares itself to Amazon, Borders etc, rather than to Yahoo Music, and other download peers). It would rather have 30% of the music market (100%), than increasing its already massive share of the download-only market that would be permanently limited in scope to perhaps just 10-20% of the total market in a DRM world. Conveniently perhaps, it should also help to reduce concerns of the (misguided) competition authorities which had threatened to cause consumer confusion and waste a lot of Apple resources fighting.

Is it self-serving for Apple? Yes, of course - that's what they're about (as any company should be in commerce). But once again, Apple have shown that by moving in the direction that favours the consumer, they position themselves to benefit too. That is in stark contrast to its arch competitor.

With greater adoption of MPEG-4 this should also help Apple in the next battleground of video where WMV (and Microsoft IPTV) need to be neutralised. I'm sure that's where Apple has it's sights on. MPEG-4 AVC (or H.264) is the open way forward, is again better than any other existing technology out there, and needs to win out.

From a selfish perspective I have never found Apple's DRM to be limiting in any way, and I had no concerns that if they did abuse their position, there would be plenty of solutions from legal to not-so-legal that would come to the consumer's aid. In that regards, the bigger thing for me is the move forward in music quality. I still like to be able to listen to the best possible version of a song in certain situations while having the convenience of small size for others. With 256kbps AAC, I see really little downside compared with CD, (though I generally found it very hard to distinguish 128kbps AAC from real CD in a few listening tests).

Now, with the quality issue sorted (which I didn't necessarily expect), the convenience of online purchase/instant gratification has levelled the playing field if not tilted towards the future. With easier competition between music stores, we can look forward to greater innovations including such ideas as "Complete my album" introduced just last week by Apple which is a unique download-only differentiator (can't be done easily with physical media). Expect to see more variation in offerings including bundles of music, video, concert offers, and digital books that only the internet can provide. These are the sorts of initiatives that can breathe life into the music industry and hopefully signal an intent to grasp the future rather than defend the dead-end single/album status quo.

This is a great announcement for music loving consumers, for the music industry, for Apple and for any number of innovative small companies out there (eMusic, Bleep, etc). Well done to EMI for showing some nerve here. Hope the other 3 from the industry cartel will grasp the nettle!

Update: Added link to EMI press release for those not on Planet Earth.

Tags: Apple, EMI, DRM, WMA, AAC, iPod, iTunes, Microsoft

TeraBytes at Home

2007-03-23T18:56:00.000Z

I just purchased a 1TB external disk from LaCie for about £230 (ex VAT). This will be primarily used for backups at first and directly connected to our laptops. Longer term, I may use it as a NAS-type device (a networked disk perhaps using Apple's AirDisk). But the 1TB figure seemed pretty monumental to me, and got me thinking back to how quickly this has developed.

A few years ago after an article in the Independent by "Cursor" claiming that disk drive technology had seen 200 times compound growth, I checked their calculations (which were wrong) and showed that in fact, disk drive size had doubled approximately every 11 months versus chip technology which had doubled every 18 months (the infamous Moore's Law). I got a quick reply and correction from Cursor (Charles: are you listening) admitting a rushed job on doing the exponentials.

We all agreed nevertheless that doubling every 11 months had been phenomenal and was still 63% better than chip technology. I think since that time disk drive technology might have slowed a small amount (though chips have continued to develop along Moore's Law lines, albeit with a slowing down in clock speed advances). Of course, at this time, the real star is NAND Flash storage that is growing at a faster rate than either.

But 1TB at home seems just amazing. To put that in a few perspectives:

- 1TB for £230 is equivalent to 23pence per GigaByte, or just .023 pence per MegaByte.
- 1TB is 12,500 times an 80MB disk (that was the size of my first major disk purchase (for a Mac II in 1998 which cost more than this).
- 1TB disks come in a size no bigger than the 80MB disks of old, and are also better in every other respect - power, seek time, reliability, transfer time, noise etc.

That is some achievement. Interestingly, the transfer time of this disk in Firewire800 mode is such that it can transfer over 80MB in one second, which is conveniently equal to the full size of my first hard disk!

Of course, back in the 80's nobody would have thought that the average consumer would require terabytes of data storage. But with uncompressed storage of music, storage of our digital photo collection, and increasingly video storage, it is quite easy to see 10TB being necessary in the not-too-distant future. What about the 1PetaByte home? That is 1,000, million, MegaBytes! Is it really that far off?

Tags: TeraByte, LaCie, Moore's Law

Government, its (Cycling) Citizens, and the Internet

2007-03-08T10:53:00.000Z

In my experience of our government's use of the internet to improve services, the scorecard is pretty low so far. Just yesterday I noticed that my favourite rail information site operated (strangely) by Wandsworth council could no longer be found. This site used to be incredibly fast, and give you information on any route in the UK including stops, and including all the stops the train took on each journey, the trains ultimate route etc. It was timetable nirvana. Only missing were prices. Why Network Rail could not take on this brilliant piece of work I don't know.

However, I have a good example finally of how a service can be delivered to everyone's benefit, and on my sample size = 1, appears to do the job.

A curse for cyclists is the state of some roads where subsidence, damage etc can result in a serious jolt and in fact be quite dangerous. We have been powerless to do much about this unless you have mountains of time and inclination to pursue through letters or waiting in phone queues.

Just recently, the CTC introduced FillThatHole.org which allows anyone to create a problem report for any road in the UK, including identifying it on a map and even including images. The report is then filed with the appropriate authority.

I thought I'd give it a try for one I noticed in Kensington and Chelsea, not expecting much. I got a confirmation back that it had been received, and another one that it had been forwarded on (yeh, so what!). But I was genuinely surprised that within 10 days or so, the repair had been made quite thoroughly. Even better, I got an email back within another day telling me that the hazard had been reported as fixed. Very cool.

Now, I have given credit to government for this, when in fact most of the credit goes to the CTC. And, I repeat, my sample size is 1. But, this is a great example of the sorts of things our governments (local and national) COULD be doing across their whole services portfolio to engage with its citizens. I'm sure it's not a huge system, but what I particularly liked was the way it kept you informed throughout the process, and closed it all off at the end.

Three cheers to the CTC, and one and a half cheers to the people in government somewhere who have at least allowed this to work!

UPDATE (9th March): The one thing missing from the system was the ability for the original reporter to re-open the case if the fix had not been made or not made satisfactorily. Within a day of me suggesting this feature, the CTC had added a button to do exactly this. So, that means four cheers for the CTC!

Tags: UK, Fillthathole, CTC, Cycling, Road, Pothole

Kristin Hersh Live

2007-03-08T10:18:00.000Z

We went to see Kristin Hersh at the Koko Club in Camden (a lovely compact venue).

Kristin is a founder of the Throwing Muses group (Indy/Alternative genre). I particularly like her solo work however which is in various flavours from rock to almost country, heavy to acoustic. Her most recent album - Learn to Sing Like a Star - is just out and is a return to the heavier side, and has some cracking songs, including Ice, Vertigo, The Thin Man and In Shock.

You can get some (free) downloads of her material from the Throwingmusic.com site linked to above. Interestingly, 4AD - the UK record label is offering many of her albums in un-DRM'd AAC 192kbps for £7.90.

Anyhow, Kristin showed how good a musician she is, even if the mixing seemed to lose some of the subtleties (and a terrible resonance in the theatre for some bass frequencies!).

As an added bonus the support band were the McCarricks - Martin and Kimberlee. A cellist and violinist respectively I didn't know what to expect (this also expsoses my lack of knowledge too). But with the aid of a projection screen showing specially made short films accompanying each track, and with the underpinnings of the track on tape, the performance was different than anything else I've seen, and we both really enjoyed it. A sort of hybrid of Kraftwerk, Laurie Anderson, Depeche Mode, Dead Can Dance etc. though way different than any of the above. The two (husband and wife, rather than brother and sister incidentally), also played throughout the whole Kristin Hersh set.

A quick search for Martin McCarrick gave very little at first - just a Wikipedia entry. But that was enough for me to realise that I SHOULD have liked their work anyway. Martin has a great history working with bands I also love - including a long period at Siouxsie and the Banshees, Dead Can Dance, Marc Almon and also with both Throwing Muses and Kristin Hersh throughout the 90's. He was also a key member of Therapy, though I have to confess not being familiar with them. I later found a myspace site for mccarrickmusic and this has some of the tracks which give a good indication of their music. But I would say that I found their performance live (with added video) even more compelling and I would welcome a DVD of their films set to their music.

Anyhow, Kristin only has a few UK dates left, but if you get a chance in Sheffield, Manchester or Glasgow, and you're an Indy music fan, do make an effort - I'm sure you won't be disappointed. Europeans have an opportunity too before she heads home to the US.

Tags: Kristin Hersh, Throwing Muses, The McCarricks, UK Tour

A wonderful sight

2007-03-04T08:33:00.000Z

It's often the case that we miss good astronomical events in the UK due to weather. But not last night!

This was the first time I can remember seeing a complete lunar eclipse, and indeed it was a lovely sight - by naked eye, with binoculars, or through a telescope.

The moon looked particularly eerie - like a slightly red ping pong ball hovering in the sky, and it was amazing to see how the rest of the stars shone like they never get to do on a normal full moon!

Tags: Moon, Lunar, Eclipse

UK Government Science Investment

2007-02-23T10:01:00.000Z

I was disappointed to read about the UK Government taking money from the science and medical research budgets to "soften the blow" of Rover's collapse.

That Rover was a dead duck was known for many, many years (decades even), and while I have sympathy with the workers there, I don't think they deserved anything different than any other worker laid off from a failed company.

But looking at it another way, the stupidity and short-sightedness of the government's moves seems clear: Does anyone for one minute think that Rover's demise came about by investing too MUCH in science and engineering research?

Once again, we have taken from the future to pay for past mistakes. Particularly nasty is the fact that medical research is reduced when clearly this has nothing to do with engineering.

As an aside, the article implies that the government has put a significant extra investment into research so it is merely taking back a little of that largesse. But I know that much of the money (like for the NHS) has gone on administration. For instance whereas a grant of £170k a few years ago would have been spent on the research, the grant is now topped up with "overhead" of, say £130k to pay for admin at the university. No more science is done than at the £170k level, but the cost is now £300k!

Tags: UK, Science, Medical, Research, Budget, Rover

Vista's mere 800 applications

2007-02-23T09:42:00.000Z

I find this information from Computerworld somewhat surprising on a number of levels.

First is that just 108 applications have been certified to work with Vista, and another 683 have been awarded "works with distinction" whatever that means. Excluded from the list are applications such as all of Adobe's multimedia applications, most Symantec applications, and applications such as the latest version of Skype. Given Vista's huge gestation period, I can't help feeling that this is ridiculously low. I know this doesn't mean that all the other apps WON'T work, but I'm genuinely surprised.

The next thing that struck me as surprising - though perhaps it's a (major?) contributory factor to the above is that it costs $10,000 per app to get that certification. This is clearly a barrier to small software companies, and even larger ones if they are close to a new release of software. While I understand why this was probably a costly exercise for a 3rd party to undertake, I wonder whether Microsoft has been rather silly in making this barrier so high given the end result.

It's difficult to comment too much on whether it's the application vendors being slow, or cheap, or whether Microsoft has been very remiss in not putting enough backing behind making applications compatible with Vista out of the gate (let's face it, it's now almost 4 months since the release of Vista to business). But whatever the case, I think it's a poor state of affairs.

I think there would be a lot of fuss in the Apple camp if such a situation happened with Leopard, though a fair point against this is that there is no comparable certification step that I know of. But when I think back to the relative ease of transition from PowerPC to Intel with Rosetta and Universal apps seeming to deliver a very high level of compatibility from day 1, it seems Apple's approach to working with its developers* seems to have paid dividends.

But really, what was going on while Vista trundled along in prolonged development?

* I guess given that Adobe has also been one of the slowest to respond to Apple's Intel transition may indicate that it needs to look a bit closer at its development responsiveness

Tags: Microsoft, Vista, Certification, Adobe, Apple, Leopard

In praise of cycling MP's

2007-02-19T17:14:00.000Z

I knew the moment I saw the headlines about politicians' expense claims that I was going to get exasperated.

"From £16,000 on taxis to £230 on a bike: politicans' travel expenses revealed" was the headline in the right-on Guardian. Perhaps I am just a little bit touchy, but that certainly seemed to be a dig at cycling MP's (and by extension, all cyclists). How else to interpret highlighting one of the smallest claims in an article generally criticising excess amongst our elected officials? Other newspapers also devoted column inches to the cycling claims of Jeremy Corbyn MP. Yet, it represents just 5 one thousandths of one percent of the total claimed by all MP's (0.0051%).

And, this weekend, Jasper Gerard, writing in the Observer under the headline "For our tireless MPs, no expenses are spared" sent me suitably over the edge with:

"But my favourite claim is Jeremy Corbyn's, who pocketed £230 - for cycling. Perhaps puncture repair kits are pricey."

Ha, bloody, ha!

Let's get this straight. The only logical and rational comment on Jeremy Corbyn's claims are to point out how much better the public purse would have been if other MP's made use of such transport. Diane Abbott's £2,235 in taxis is a start. And, boy, does she need the exercise. How about Mr Khabra's £3,007 (Ealing) and Mr Khan's £2,153 (Tooting) car expenses. And, perhaps Ms Janet Anderson and Mr Laurence Robertson (£16,612, and £12,015 mileage respectively), could at least get their fat arses out of their leather seats for SOME of their travel?

And, let's just look at Jasper's comment in more detail. The cost of cycling is actually the cost of a puncture repair kit is it? Just like the cost of driving is the cost of his in-car air freshener? Jeremy Corbyn cycled 1,100 miles in a year (on parliamentary business). I suspect his bike would need a good service after that amount of mileage with some new tyres, brake pads etc. That's probably about £100 or so a year based on my experience. Then there's the cost of the bike. And, lets not forget the cost of a decent lock, luggage carriers, waterproofs etc.

Cycling is considerably less costly than most other methods of transport, but it is NOT free. It's considerably beneficial for other road users who don't have their roads clogged up even more (please, this is not China - most cyclists cycle out of choice not economics). It's beneficial to our economy by not clogging up those roads. It's considerably more beneficial to the environment, and it's also beneficial to our health system (and the "health systems" of those cyclists too).

So, to Jeremy Corbyn, and those other cycling MP's: I praise you for your efforts and fortitude. Your £230 is the best value of the £4.5m spent last year.

And, to our unelected journalists who wouldn't know a crank from a cog: STFU!

Tags: UK, MP, Expenses, Jermey Corbyn

Evil Jobs screwed Pixar Shareholders

2007-02-12T14:07:00.000Z

Going the rounds are the latest in the options backdating scandal. Now, Steve Jobs is accused of choosing fortuitous dates for the granting of options to some key employees at Pixar Studios (FT subscription required, but story available elsewhere)

I am very much against bosses getting rich at the expense of shareholders, and I am also (obviously) against fraudulent behaviour in the corporate world.

But the options backdating issue has gone too far and its impact is now becoming severely detrimental to businesses (and their shareholders) caught up in it. First of all, most of the stories I have seen go back sometime. A time when options were not expensed, and they were considered a key part of an employee's package. There have been changes in thinking given all sorts of corporate scandals, and that is to be welcomed. But it is neither right (unless fraud was involved) or worthwhile to be revisiting today's thinking on the past.

Employee options have been part of Silicon Valley for a longtime. As a motivation factor, most bosses wish to issue those to employees at an attractive price (in-the-money, rather than under-water) for fairly obvious reasons. It takes a huge amount of time to process an options scheme and issuance from planning to getting board approval for the scheme and to deciding who gets what and writing the detail agreements. During that time, many circumstances will change. For the most part it makes sense to choose a date that serves the (motivational) purpose, and I would argue that as long as that date is chosen between the start and end of these processes, it is quite reasonable. It would NOT be reasonable if the effect was material, and/or if fraud was involved. It would also not be reasonable if management had conspired to artificially reduce the stock price for a short period (or issued them below any recorded stock price). For issuing options to senior management, it is also obvious that board approval is a part of that process. Jobs should not have been able to issue options to himself for instance (or his senior fellow executives) without that board approval. It is the board, not the management, that is ultimately responsible to shareholders. In the case of Apple, it is not yet clear what transpired as we have only Apple's (admittedly external and supposedly independent) report to judge by. I am not judging Apple and Jobs behaviour at Apple in this post. I don't know enough to do that and I suspect most of you reading this don't either.

Just before we look at Pixar, let's consider who the victims are of options backdating. If someone gets options at an "unfair" price, the people who lose out are the shareholders. They lose out because to make good on the options for the employee the company has to buy them in at the market rate (or issue more shares thus diluting existing shareholders). Only shareholders lose out - no one else, and usually only by small amounts. I have advised a number of companies with share option schemes. In all those cases, it has taken a period of several months or longer to get them issued, and I have advised choosing as low a price as possible for those options (in the UK, the tax authorities have to approve a price anyhow - another action that takes time). Scandal? No. These are private companies and the shareholders are the very same people making the decision on issuing options to those employees. In some cases, I too have been a shareholder of that company. We have chosen the price to serve as motivation, which is the prime purpose of the scheme in the first place. As shareholders, we want our staff to be motivated, and are prepared to carry that expense personally.

So, onto Pixar. Pixar is different from Hob's examples above isn't it? It was a public company (prior to being bought by Disney). But, and this is where it is interesting, who owned the largest number of shares in Pixar?

Steve Jobs did, of course. Not just by a small margin. He owned MORE THAN HALF the company, in fact, and, in that position has plenty of rights anyway.

So, who was the biggest "victim" of Steve's generosity with John Lasseter? Steve himself - by a massive factor. He wanted those staff to be motivated, and indeed it served both him and the other shareholders well. When Disney bought Pixar, a large part of the (huge) value it paid was for the people that came with it. If Steve had feathered his own nest at Pixar by issuing options to himself (whether at favourable rates or not) then that would be an issue. But Jobs (to my knowledge) was not a recipient of any options at Pixar. Steve was just doing his job, and probably thought nothing of it. In doing his job, he certainly helped John Lasseter, but if there's a Pixar shareholder out there that thinks Steve didn't do well for them, I'd be amazed.

Oh, and one more thing. Any retribution that is made here almost certainly is a case of Peter robbing Paul. If shareholders were the ones that suffered, then taking money from shareholders funds to recompense almost certainly makes no sense. While there are some worrying examples, it seems to me that the biggest beneficiaries of the options backdating scandal are in fact the lawyers and accountants drafted in to sort this out, and the careers of federal and state prosecutors.

Tags: Apple, Pixar, Options, Steve Jobs

DVD-Jon Hypocrisy

2007-02-09T10:02:00.000Z

Edit to this entry: Matt in his comments made me do a bit more research on this subject, so I followed his link. Indeed, I think I have perhaps unfairly maligned DVD-Jon as in those entries he does not appear to promote DRM, and also obliquely refers to his interests being aligned to it. So, I will take back my calling of DVD-Jon as a hypocrite.

What is interesting is that all the reporting I came across which made reference to DVD-Jon seemed to infer that he was against the Steve Jobs proposal. None of that reporting made reference to his self-interest in the matter. So, once again, I am left with a bad taste about the reporting which I think took comments out of context, failed to note interests and generally used such comments to support their own case.

As for DVD-Jon and a few others, I still have one big gripe which is that they talk about this as a technical issue. It is not and never has been. It is a commercial and a legal one. Apple has podcasts downloadable from iTunes for free and without DRM wrappers. It is clearly technically straightforward to allow DRM-free music on iTunes. However, none outside a close coterie of music industry execs, lawyers and music download services has any knowledge of what has been agreed. I am more willing to give Jobs the benefit of any doubt here about his intentions and reasonings. And, I am willing to give him a lot more credit for taking the stance he has, even if at this time it is without real actions.

Thanks Matt for the link.

Back to the original post, left unedited:

Famous for breaking various encryption and DRM schemes, DVD-Jon (Jon Lech Johansen) is quite a cult hero for many.

I was however quite surprised to see his comments regarding Steve Jobs open letter as carried by a number of sites, this one being quite typical. Most sites I read on this covered DVD-Jon's history, and therefore appeared to give more credence to his views because of this, even though they appeared somewhat at odds with his past. Surely, even better with which to criticise Steve Jobs' letter?

But then, I remembered reading about what DVD-Jon is up to. He now lives in California and is a key employee at Double Twist Ventures. Their mission? Quoted from the Wikipedia entry for DVD-Jon:

DoubleTwist would license the ability to apply FairPlay to media companies who wanted their music and videos to play on the iPod.

In other words, Double Twist's business model is entirely dependent upon the continuation and prevalence of DRM, especially as relates to Apple's Fairplay. As usual, poor journalism is a contributor here and should have picked this up rather than just referring to his history. I see no hypocrisy in Jobs statement, but a huge wad of it from DVD-Jon.

In a further note of irony, it should be remembered that DVD-Jon's home country is Norway - perhaps the most aggressive country pushing for changes in Apple's policies.

Tags: Apple, DRM, DVD-Jon, Steve Jobs

Even newer Getamac ads for UK (Humour)

2007-02-09T09:42:00.000Z

I came across this video of comedians Lee and Herring back on the stage together. You'll have to skip to about the 1 minute 35 before it gets past the compere, but the sketch is hilarious, though not without some pretty strong language. If you know the two of them, read no further. For a bit of background read on...

I've posted here about Richard Herring before. Together with Stewart Lee (also infamous for his Jerry Springer - The Opera), they were a good comedy double act of the 90's with TV shows like "Richard, not Judy". Richard has posted a daily blog since well before blogs were fashionable, and shows up on the comedy circuit and on radio quite often. There is a bit of a long running joke of their careers nosediving a bit after their show was (unfairly perhaps) cancelled. Mitchell and Webb as featured in the new UK Apple ads are perhaps this decades closest duo to Lee and Herring, so there is a huge amount of irony in this sketch.

As an aside, its another example of how Apple is becoming so mainstream and talked about these days.

Thanks also to NotBBC for the link/video.

Tags: Apple, GetaMac, Stewart Lee, Richard Herring, Mitchell and Webb

Well, Well, Well...(or, Steve Jobs comes out)

2007-02-07T08:39:00.000Z

So, Steve Jobs (or probably one of his minions) has written a 2000 word essay articulating why we have DRM (clue: it's not Apple's requirement), and why it would embrace DRM-free music. If you've read this blog (and of course countless other intelligent sites), or you're just a rational technology follower, you will understand exactly what he is saying. Here are a few of the articles I've posted on this subject:

Link to FT article on EU/Norway anti-Apple stance
Apple's French problem with Fairplay
A discussion about interoperable DRM
More on France and DRM
DRM and digital music sales
(sidenote: an article written about a report on digital music sales stalling, which was not true; interestingly the same story was repeated later in the year after Forrester came up with some bizarre stats that also were just not correct)
One of Apple's challenges for 2006
I list DRM as one of the top 5 things to watch for in 2006
(ok, well, it's just 2007, but it WAS a hot topic in 2006 as well)

I have generally argued that Apple has had its hands tied with DRM; that, in general, it does not cause major restrictions to its users (certainly better rights than other ecosystems), and that it needs to succeed much further if it is to threaten a world in which Microsoft will inevitably take control, leading to far worse consequences to the consumer. I have also argued that certain EU countries are completely misguided in taking action against Apple.

Where I have been wrong is that I have for the most part assumed DRM was here to stay. While some commentators have felt it might be on the way out, I could not see that. What Steve's essay does above all, is to show that this suddenly seems plausible.

Of course, there will be conspiracy theorists out there (I've already seen a few comments from them). "Jobs is lying"; "why doesn't he sell non-drm music from the indie labels"; "his stats are wrong because I've bought x number of songs" where x is a number from zero to much higher than Steve's average figure! We'll no doubt see some industry bigwigs come into the debate with some point about Apple being disingenuous, and it's not THEIR fault after all.

Some might argue that this essay is somewhat defensive by Apple at a time it is under threat. It is also possible to argue that EU action has caused Apple to do this, so that is a good thing. But those are cynical views. Apple has done this at a time when it is still in the ascendancy in digital music, not when it is on a slippery slope downwards (this also shows Steve has learned the lesson of the Mac). And, if the EU had instead gone after the monopolistic labels, they could have forced this solution more directly and quickly, without causing confusion in the consumer base.

However, while I welcome this essay, the clarity it provides on why DRM is here, what Apple's contractual obligations are and its suggested remedies, one part of me worries that while we may end up with DRM-free music, there are two questions unanswered. The first is whether as a result, we will get a choice of formats so that more efficient open formats are offered (such as AAC rather than just MP3). More importantly, to an audiophile at least, is whether the solution will encompass digital offerings that are at least if not better than CD-quality (eg lossless, or even enhanced lossless), and if so, that they do not cost ridiculous amounts of money. My worry is that the industry will settle on a lowest-common-denominator solution (or a number of solutions around that level). Given a choice between (fair) DRM'd music in true audiophile quality and DRM-free music in lower quality, I might be in a small minority, but I would prefer the former.

Finally, it should also be pointed out that the essay makes no mention about DRM and video material, and indeed some of the arguments made for making music DRM-free would not apply to movies or tv shows. But, make no mistake this is still a BIG story with far-reaching consequences.

Tags: Apple, DRM, EU, Steve Jobs, iTunes

Praise for British Journalism

2007-01-30T18:09:00.000Z

I've been quick to post about poor British journalism, especially when concerned with things of an Apple nature (but certainly not exclusively). It is therefore pleasing when I can link to articles that show a good comprehension of the issues involved with excellent succinct writing.

The FT is the one example of British journalism that invariably never fails. It's understanding of the issues around Norway's (and Europe's) seeming dislike of iTunes is absolutely spot on. Unfortunately this editorial piece requires a paid subscription, but here's some excerpts:

In Norway a total monopoly on selling alcohol is legal but now Apple’s 70 per cent market share in downloaded music – which is probably only temporary – is not. Norway’s consumer ombudsman and its counterparts in Sweden, Finland, France and Germany have really not got this monopoly malarkey quite worked out.

Apple’s success in digital music is due to design, innovation and a good business model: qualities to encourage, rather than punish via questionable competition rules. Perhaps Norway needs to sort out the alcohol before worrying about the rock ’n’ roll.

In case you think the FT is too kind on Apple this paragraph also shows a keen sense of some of the issues and possible outcomes:

This does not mean that Apple is right to maintain a proprietary model: there is ample evidence that consumers benefit from open, universal standards. If there is no further innovation, and iPod remains the state of the art for years to come, then Apple might maintain an unhealthy market dominance.

But technology moves quickly in electronics. Competitors like Sony Ericsson have not yet made much of a dent in Apple’s market share, but the trend for integrating music players with mobile phones will threaten the iPod’s dominance over the next few years.

Most commentators on this issue seem to think Apple needs to make concessions. But at this time, it should make none. Concessions will not benefit the consumer, but will benefit the unreformed labels, and most importantly will play into the hands of Microsoft. Without Apple, we would now have a complete dominance of Windows Media Player - and probably back several versions too. We would have a DRM that was forced on us by Microsoft and its cozy collusion with the entertainment industry. We would have dull, clunky WMA players, with poor synchronisation and seriously restrictive DRM. This was first and foremost a war about Apple's and Microsoft's vision of digital delivery. We are just part way into that war in which Apple has scored some important victories over the massive and resource-rich Microsoft. Ultimately, a long and hard war will be to the great benefit of the consumers (and hopefully lead to a permanent business model change in the music industry). Healthy competition can benefit the consumer far more than government action (witness EU action against Microsoft which was far too late, and failed to provide any benefit to the consumer). Action unilaterally at this time against Apple is actually anti-consumer, and plays into the hands of those with most to lose.

Good work FT!

Tags: Apple, iPod, EU, Norway, FT

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

2007-01-17T08:56:00.001Z

I know I shouldn't help give eyeballs to Paul Thurrott's musings, but I can't help refuting this one:

While Apple's yearly revenues for Macintosh computers have barely edged up in over five years, the company's revenues of iPods and related products and services have skyrocketed

Yearly revenues for Macs have barely edged up in over five years? Really.

Well, I knew this not to be true, as I track these numbers regularly. I took Apple quarterly reports back to the final quarter of 2000 (the start of the 01 fiscal year), which allowed me to compare a full five years.

Revenue growth over the 5 years in each of the last quarters was 122%, 31%, 52%, and 84% respectively. Unit growth was 90%, 48%, 60% and 89% respectively. For the full year, revenue growth was 68% and unit growth 72% over the 5-year-ago period (a more reliable figure). This is not just a recent year phenomenon either (although the first 3 years were relatively flat).

I pointed this out to Paul in a provocative email and received a polite-ish response - obviously from someone who receives countless emails from the Mac fanbois, claiming that he got his statistics from the New York Times. He promised to investigate, but don't expect a retraction, folks.

But Paul's use of "facts" is pretty typical in this day and age - deliberate or not. It is not always easy to find the facts (though this one is not too hard). It also seems beyond many people to analyse them properly. When combined with the recursiveness of the blogosphere (and it's frequent lack of attribution to source), it is easy to see how even accurate reports from some time previously get regurgitated indefinitely to prove a point. I wonder for instance how many reporters and bloggers will (mis)use the discredited Forrester report on iTunes sales last year (or, the even worse interpretations of that report) whenever they want to take a swipe on Apple in the coming year?

Anyhow, back to the facts. I think today's financials will once again show the Mac is back on track, growing towards a marketshare that at least makes it a contender again - and especially so in the consumer market of the developed world where it is most important (for Apple) to be. Now, Paul, go and update your facts!

Tags: Apple, Mac, Marketshare, Paul Thurrott, WindowsIT Pro

MacWorld Prediction Recap!

2007-01-17T08:39:00.000Z

Well, at a stretch, I claim 4 out of 10 predictions right! This is probably a lot better than most commentators since most expected a slew of Mac hardware and software announcements.

However, before I get carried away with my foresightfulness, I should point out that I only get 4 out of 10 by counting my prediction of a widescreen video iPod (which is also the iPhone and which therefore accounts for 2 out of 10!). Other than that I predicted the AppleTV would be announced in more detail, and that there would be more movie studios on board (Paramount).

Another reason my stats look better is that I didn't count iLife07 and iWork07 in the 10 predictions taking these to be a given! So, really, it's 4 out of 12. Not so good!

Anyhow, it was a wildly different Macworld, and one to remember. Sure, Steve disappointed the Mac faithful with the paucity of Mac announcements, but he took the unprecedented opportunity offered by a coinciding CES, the iPhone, AND Apple's 30th birthday to steal the headlines around the world. My guess is that Apple garnered more column inches and certainly more eyeballs than the whole of CES put together, and almost all of it favourable. In the end, that's good for the Mac, and good for the Mac faithful.

I'll be visiting both AppleTV and iPhone over the next few days to see how groundbreaking these products are, looking back at what my predictions for each (and what I got wrong), and, shock, horror, why I won't be buying an AppleTV yet. We'll also be taking a look at the financials to be announced later on today and what that means to Mac users. Stay tuned....

Tags: Apple, iPod, iPod Phone, MacWorld, Mac, AppleTV

French Follies

2007-01-07T17:43:00.000Z

I wrote back in April 2006 about the foolishness of Chirac trying to take on Google with a French (and German) competitor funded by the state, known as Quaero.

I read in a recent Ars Technica post that this project has already run into severe difficulties and that France and Germany have gone their separate ways on it.

I'd hardly take credit for an insightful post as I'm not sure any reasonable business person thought any differently than me. But, really, what was he thinking and why do the French let him get away with this?

(As an aside, my partner points out that in her subject area the whole world uses the term "DNA", except that is, the French, to whom it is "ADN". Can anyone tell me how such practices really help defend the French culture, increase it's influence abroad, and enhance it's competitiveness in the global economy?)

Tags: Jacques Chirac, Quaero, Google

Philosophy, Religion and a Joke...

2007-01-06T12:11:00.000Z

I noted in an earlier post about the 100 Greatest Jokes site.

I had also been meaning to write something deeply philosophical here bringing together the themes of "More British people think religion does more harm than good" (from the Guardian front page before Christmas), the Pope's Christmas message about the world needing a saviour (heh, lets be delusional shall we - someone else can fix this mess we're all creating), the finality of death to an atheist (my partner's father passing away). But then, you don't visit here for that sort of stuff do you?

Anyway, instead I'll keep it to one philosophical point and juxtapose a joke from the 100 best!

Philosophical point: To the world's religious leaders (including the preachy Archbishop of Canterbury), instead of blaming the politicians for the religious problems, why not all of you set a bleeding example. Get together and show why religion is relevant and truly has a moral and relevant purpose!

And, joke number 53 from Emo Philips had me laughing and sums up the problems faced by the religious leaders in my suggestion above:

I was walking across a bridge one day, and I saw a man standing on the edge, about to jump off. So I ran over and said "Stop! Don't do it!"
"Why shouldn't I?" he said.
"Well, there's so much to live for!"
"Like what?"
"Well... are you religious?"
He said yes. I said, "Me too! Are you Christian or Buddhist?"
"Christian."
"Me too! Are you Catholic or Protestant ?
"Protestant."
"Me too! Are you Episcopalian or Baptist?"
"Baptist"
"Wow! Me too! Are you Baptist Church of God or Baptist Church of the Lord?"
"Baptist Church of God!"
"Me too! Are you original Baptist Church of God, or are you reformed Baptist Church of God?"
"Reformed Baptist Church of God!"
"Me too! Are you Reformed Baptist Church of God, reformation of 1879, or Reformed Baptist Church of God, reformation of 1915?"
He said, "Reformed Baptist Church of God, reformation of 1915!"
I said, "Die, heretic scum", and pushed him off.

Outlandish Hobsblog MacWorld Predictions!

2007-01-06T11:36:00.000Z

In the name of fun, I will postulate my top 10 interesting MacWorld announcements in order of their likelihood. Note, I am not saying they will all come to pass - indeed most will not as there isn't enough time for more than a few.

I'm not going to take the easy route of having a few slam-dunks either. We all know iLife07 will be out, and iWork07 too. And we all know Steve will talk about 10.5 a great deal. But 10.5 was never predicted by Apple to be ready by now, and I don't think they'll surprise people with it (and if they do, don't buy it, because it will not be ready for prime time).

So, here goes:

1. 8 core Mac Pros. This is a certainty within the next 2 months, if not at MacWorld. The Intel chips are ready, announced and should just plug in existing machines. Testing of such chips shows a 40% plus improvement over the existing four core versions on a price basis (the 4 core chips have lower clockspeeds at the same price point). Maybe not for all Mac Pro users, but those with lots of video processing and other tasks which thrive on multiple cores should be happy.

2. New displays with built-in iSight. This just makes sense given lack of iSight for sale and approach with all other Macs.

3. iTV. Steve will definitely say more on iTV - perhaps give us its final name? It may or may not be ready yet (I think it will use 802.11n and Apple will choose timing carefully when the near-standard is close enough to not cause them a bunch of lawsuits down the line).

4. iPod Phone. I'm still not sure this will be announced. See my previous posting for my views on this if and when it is announced. There have been some really well-written articles on this recently such as Steven Frank's thoughts and Aaron Adams' case for a VoIP phone rather than cell. (I think he's got a point, but I still think such a device would allow for mobile usage too). There's a good chance Steve will leave this topic until a later date as it's such a big announcement and complex that it may require an event of its own (and, remember, this is MACWorld)

5. Larger MacBook (a definite hole in the Apple product line up - a consumer laptop with a decent 15" screen)

6. Smaller MacBook Pro (also a hole in the lineup though not as severe as the MacBook)

7. True video iPod - ie a full widescreen model perhaps with 640x480 resolution.

8. iTunes 8. I'm basing this idea as much on the need to support the iPod Phone as anything else. iTunes 7 was quite recent and had many changes.

9. more movie studios on board; more iTS content.

10. International tv programming or perhaps first international movie availability with Disney.

One real longshot is the fabled xMac or grown-up Mac Mini (3.5" disk, higher end graphics, RAM, etc). However, there will not be a MacTablet for reasons that plenty of people have written about.

It should be great fun - and Apple is certainly stoking up the fires on this. But I wonder if the expectations are just too far ahead of what is really achievable right now, and that it'll be followed by a share price deflation and mediocre reviews. Remember it's the start of 2007 - there's still a lot more to come after this announcement.

Tags: Apple, iPod, iPod Phone, MacWorld, Mac, iTV

Appletease

2007-01-04T09:00:00.000Z

The astute among you may be wondering about the lack of Apple postings here lately. After all, Apple is usually involved in up to half of the posts!

First up, I've been biding my time a bit. The last major post I did on Apple was an outright criticism of many of the articles written in the Guardian around the time of the last iPod release and iTV announcement. While I did draft a riposte to comments left here by some of the Guardian writers, it was frankly becoming even more complicated. So, I decided to let actions speak louder than words. We'll revisit the Guardian's criticisms when the next financials are out, and the product strategy is a bit clearer.

However, today we're going to have a bit of fun looking into the Apple Phone, iPod Phone, or whatever it will be called (but definitely not iPhone which it has been clear for many many months it was not going to be called).

We've had some incredible postings about why the Apple Phone will fail before its been announced, let alone released. I was pleased to nominate Michael Kanellos of CNet to DaringFireball for a Jackass of the week award which he duly won for his prepostorous predictions. We've had articles at other sites such as the Register about the certainty of it's failure. The Register article was at least generally coherent about the challenges facing Apple entering into a mature industry which is massively distorted via handset subsidies from service providers to consumers and how the relationship between handset maker and service provider works (badly actually for BOTH of them). But it failed to think differently. Apple does not intend to become the number one, two or three handset maker tomorrow. Its target market is first of all restricted to the richer countries - to some extent as the Mac and the iPod are. You won't be seeing too many Apple phones in China or India which today account for a high percentage of the handset market. Apple will want to achieve strong reviews and good sales in the markets it considers it is already strong in.

But how can Apple make the iPod Phone a strong proposition that people will want to buy - even if the subsidies aren't there? Well, how about studying past form with the iPod itself? Too few commentators seem to have done this. My first prediction for the iPod Phone is that it will be small. Not unusably small, but it will compare well even with some of the slimmest, sexiest phones today. Many manufacturers have lost sight of this (Nokia - where is the successor to the cute 6100?). The problem with many of these good-looking phones today is that the UI sucks, and indeed Motorola have never figured this out, and even Nokia seem to have taken steps backward in this area. To send a text message with my Nokia "smartphone" now takes me up to 15 presses just to enter text mode and select the recipient's mobile number. I used to be able to resend the same message easily. That option does not exist now (at least not obviously). In fact my Smartphone is hobbled by a combination of service provider and manufacturer stupidity giving me a phone which needs a firmware update but by doing this voids the warranty offered by the service provider! Nokia can fix the bugs in it, but Orange won't let me!

Apple's phone will not be free of bugs out of the box, but it will employ an excellent UI that makes it a combination great music player AND a great phone. I'm not expecting it will be a smartphone crammed with features. But most people I know don't really want one of those anyway. Instead, Apple's phone will be another piece in the jigsaw of the Apple experience. Mac users may be expecting the Apple phone to work wonderfully with their Mac, but that is still too niche of a market. Instead, Apple's phone will add another dimension to the iPod ecosystem and to Apple's own broad media everywhere strategy. It will deliver its key functionality equally whether to a Windows user or a Mac user. It will do this by leveraging iTunes - the third strand in how Apple will differentiate the iPod Phone from others. Note how synchronisation and updates moved into iTunes itself with version 7. This is key for the phone strategy - where contacts, notes, photos etc arguably have more importance. It stands in sharp contrast to the mixed bag of applications in the Nokia suite for instance. Apple's phone will embrace the third party iPod add-on market to allow people to add functionality they need that is not part of the basic phone.

But these alone are not enough to make the iPod Phone a success. And, for that, Apple still has a few tricks up its sleeve. It will not just have great synchronisation features, it will bring something new. It will do this by making one assumption most phone manufacturers don't make - that the user will have a PC (the iPod does this obviously). One of the applications I love and have written about before is Salling Clicker - an application which turns many phones into a remote control. A year ago, Clicker v3 added support for PCs and also could be used over wi-fi networks (extending range compared with Bluetooth, and allowing control of multiple machines). I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the Apple phone will include remote control software built-in allowing control of a set of PC and Mac applications (obviously including iTunes but also applications such as Powerpoint, and iPhoto), and probably also working with iTV and a FrontRow style interface. It is a long shot but I wonder even if Apple have hired Jonas Salling or bought the company for while Jonas continues to support the product well via forums, fixes etc. it's been pretty quiet since the last release a year ago! In any event, expect the iPod Phone to do things with your PC and Mac that no phone has done before (at least not without a lot of add-ons and tweaking).

Imagine a phone that when you walk in the door, switches your iTunes on, or tells you how many email messages you have? Or, a step further, downloads your new podcasts to the phone? Synchronisation and control are two areas where the iPod Phone will make a leap over any other device today.

If I'm wrong about this direction, then the other direction Apple will take the phone will be in data. I'm not sure in the first version of the phone we'll see a lot here because of the need to support multiple network types and to work out arrangements with service providers. But it may well have a few things up its sleeve - perhaps in limited markets. Safari's underpinnings are already the basis for Nokia's latest browser. One obvious area is mobile iTunes - especially for instance for almost realtime podcast downloads. But I'm not convinced Apple will jump into this area immediately (partly because many of the data features being talked about would require 3G speeds, and potentially expensive contracts). Apple could build some mobile features into its .mac service, but again I believe this is too mac-platform centric. Instead, Apple might leverage it's burgeoning relationship with Google to come out with optimised pages for accessing mobile services - GoogleMaps, search etc. I've mentioned the possibility of location-based services before, and I think this is area of great potential (perhaps with an add-in GPS receiver). Another area Apple could build on brilliantly would be in bridging the gap between SMS and IM. A mobile version of iChat could be excellent here - especially if it also has wi-fi capabilities. As far as I'm concerned even just text features here would be valuable. Obviously, it would need to make sure this was interoperable with the AIM network, and ideally with others (GTalk?). If Apple can introduce data features that people will use, then it will start to win the support of mobile service providers. Maybe not the dominant ones who believe (wrongly) they will be the source of content, but those who realise that the best thing they can do is to get the masses using data. SMS took off in spite of the service providers - and certainly because it was not controlled by them. It could well be a company such as Apple who shows the service providers the way for data by giving users features that they want and - most importantly - find easy to use.

If Apple can demonstrate a game-changing device, then it has the potential to cause a sea-change in the relationship between handset maker and service provider. The ludicrous subsidy system which ends up hiding the true cost of calls, and results in massive environmental waste due to 12 month phone replacement cycles, could come to an end. Handset makers could once again compete on features and appeal directly to end users, and service providers could compete on the actual services they offer.

I think the biggest challenge Apple has is that with one or even two models, it will not be able to please even a majority of critics out there whose ideal phone ranges from ultimate Blackberry/Treo down through 3G smartphones, through music/camera-oriented devices, down to the slimmest and sexiest small devices. Apple's success - in the same way it initially targeted only hard disk MP3 players, ignoring the larger flash market will need to be judged at least initially on how it does next to similar types of devices.

To recap, I believe that while Apple has some significant challenges to enter this market and its success is by no means assured, it will bring a device that is sufficiently differentiated from the competition to offer the discerning user a proposition worth paying for. It will do this through design, UI, synchronisation and control, and perhaps new applications. If the first device is priced reasonably (therefore it will not likely be a high-end, feature-laden device), it can become popular, and lead to a family of devices which service providers will warmly embrace, or risk losing customers. It can also become the catalyst for the widespread adoption of data services that the service providers actually crave but have been unable to kick-start. How will we judge it's success? Microsoft has said it will be happy to sell 1m Zune's by June. I think if Apple can sell 1m iPod Phones in a similar period, it should be considered a success. What do you think?

Look out for a few more Apple articles over the next week or two covering MacWorld, financials and the challenges ahead.

Tags: Apple, iPod, iPod Phone, Macworld, Phone, iTunes, Salling Clicker, Salling

100 greatest jokes

2007-01-04T08:31:00.000Z

I came across this site over Christmas (I think from DaringFireball), and had been meaning to include it in some post. But it's too good to keep to myself. You may not like all of them, and perhaps it's got some great jokes missing, but you're sure to find something to amuse you and even bring back some memories.

Enjoy!

Sad News for us

2006-12-30T12:36:00.000Z

A brief tribute to my de-facto father-in-law, John ("Jack") Richard Cotterill 18/10/20 to 28/12/06. JR, as we have known him, has been my 2nd Dad for more than 26 years and I have only seen him as a good and wonderful man in all of that time. He will be sorely missed by me, and of course, by my partner, Sue who has done so much to enable him to enjoy a good quality of life these last few years, while he was suffering increasingly from the effects of Parkinson's disease. While this itself is not a killer, it's debillitating effects are incredibly frustrating to its sufferers and ultimately create danger from normal everyday activities such as eating and walking. JR, we'll miss your dry wit, your incredible knowledge, your love of the arts, our 2-3x daily phone calls, your stays with us, our discussions about the test matches...

Great Movie - Stray Dogs

2006-12-14T17:55:00.000Z

We get through a lot of movies via our Lovefilm (=UK Netflix) subscription. Sue is very methodical about looking at film reviews each week and noting the ones we should watch, and getting them added to the list.

Last weekend we watched a film called Stray Dogs, and I have to say this is a stunning movie. It certainly isn't a blockbuster, so it may not be one for Christmas Day, but if you like foreign films it is an awesome example. The Director, Marzieh Meshkini, is an Iranian woman who also directed "The Day I Became A Woman", another wonderful and fascinating film.

Stray Dogs is set in Afghanistan, post-Taliban, and almost every scene involves the two children at the heart of the movie. Often in such films, the quality is poor, but this is beautifully shot, and wonderfully mastered onto DVD and displayed very well on screen (especially compared to our next DVD - a US indie film that was atrociously formatted).

There's not a lot of extras, but a text interview with the Director is well worth looking at. Marzieh's viewpoints are incredibly balanced and insightful. The top of the UN should be made up of people like her!

This film strangely reaffirms one's faith in humanity with one hand, while destroying it with the other. It shows that we live in one world with a common set of aspirations. Why do we mess it all up?

Tell me what you thought! Are the two main actors not brilliant?

Tags: Stray Dogs, Marzieh Meshkini

Music Recommendations

2006-12-14T16:11:00.000Z

I think it's been quite a disappointing year for new music on the whole. My favourite album of the last few years - Long Gone Before Daylight by the Cardigans has not yet been surpassed (even by their follow-up, Super Extra Gravity). This is one of those rare albums when each track from first to last is wonderful. If you haven't heard this, give it a shot.

But from this year's (or thereabouts) music releases, I'm going to suggest a few things to you that you may or may not have heard of (all links are to Amazon.com as not all of it can be bought in the UK. Sometimes I've had it from Amazon marketplace, or even from iTunes).

First up is Tanya Donelly - a founder of the indie band Throwing Muses and also Belly. Tanya has made 4 solo albums all of which in my opinion are wonderful. Just last month came This Hungry Life an interesting album in that it is recorded live in a small venue but is all new material (a brave attempt). It starts with a cracking first track. Some might argue the album is a bit too country-tinged, but I like it. If you do like this, you will almost certainly like the first two albums - Lovesongs for Underdogs and BeautySleep. The third album - Whiskey Tango Ghosts is still good but just not quite on a par with the first two. She has a great voice, and some good lyrics too.

Tanya's step-sister is Kristin Hersh who is also of the Muses. I was a bit late to Grotto, but again I really like it, and a new one is due in the New Year. Unfortunately, I missed a performance in a small London venue next month as it was sold out quickly.

Incidentally, while I like the Muses, I'm not an out-and-out fan, so don't think that's a pre-requisite for liking these albums - they're just great albums by themselves.

I've also enjoyed The Dears with their second album - Gang of Losers. Murray Lightburn who fronts the band has a great delivery, and great lyrics. Sometimes you swear you're listening to Morrissey (listen to track3 "Lost in the Plot" off the first album "No Cities Left" and you'll see what I mean). Anyway, this album offers the best of British indie from the late 80's/90's. Not bad for a Canadian band!

When you see Murray live (well, on video), he's not what you expect. The same, in reverse, goes for Antony (of Antony and the Johnsons fame). I also liked "I am a bird now" though this may be an acquired taste.

The Pet Shop Boys are a band I've liked over the years, without having a complete collection. Fundamental (and the 2-disc set with Fundamentalism) shows them at their best with catchy tunes.

Staying with boppy and electronica, one of the albums I played a lot this year was We Are Pilots from the Shiny Toy Guns. I discovered this band on Radio 6 doing a cover of a Depeche Mode song on an album of such covers called Goth Electro
which is also good. I got We Are Pilots off iTunes UK as it was not available here as a CD, but last time I looked it wasn't there. Go figure.

Finally, if you're in to more atmospheric stuff, I saw an excellent review of The Silver Tree by Lisa Gerrard who used to be 50% of Dead Can Dance. I went ahead and got this off iTunes as it was a long album at a good price (couldn't get it on CD for less than about £20 as an import at the time). If you liked the later Dead Can Dance albums, then you'll appreciate this one. Another comparison would be like a good Enya album but without some of the catchy (and later annoying) songs!

I hope you'll manage to sample one or more of these artists and perhaps discover something you like.

Tags: The Cardigans, Tanya Donelly,Kristin Hersh, The Dears, Pet Shop Boys, Lisa Gerrard, Shiny Toy Guns

Microsoft UK rip-off

2006-12-06T19:13:00.000Z

“The UK’s future competitiveness depends on IT,” said Gordon Frazer, Microsoft’s UK managing director at last week's launch of Vista claiming that Vista and Office 2007 would have a real impact (though I find this hard to see unless other countries don't upgrade as fast - assuming indeed that upgrading DOES help productivity).

The UK has been a huge market for Microsoft, and we have a particularly soft public sector that accepts anything Microsoft throws at it for extortionate amounts of money.

So how come if the UK is so important to Microsoft, and that the company is so concerned with our productivity does it ensure that its software should cost twice what it does in the States?

I was wondering what it would cost for instance to put XP Pro or Vista on a Mac using Parallels. So I checked out Amazon:

Amazon.co.uk - Windows XP Pro SP2 Cost £232.99 (reduced from £289.99)
Amazon.com - Windows XP Pro SP2 Cost $239.99 (reduced from $299.99)

Even allowing for VAT on the UK version that is an exchange rate of £1=$1.21 at a time when the dollar is almost at the 1:2 ratio. Microsoft already makes gross margins of over 85% on Windows. It means in the UK, it makes double the profit.

This is not an isolated case. For Microsoft Office 2003 Professional, the price is £399 UK vs $414 US. It is possible to get both applications cheaper in the US (for instance NewEgg has Office 2003 at $359). Many US stores are also carrying Vista upgrade offers (though I've read some horror stories there too).

To me this is outrageous and unjustified, yet I see no fuss about it. Where is our good media when they're needed? This is a scandal that our competition and consumer bodies should be looking at now!

Tags: Microsoft, Vista, Office, UK, Price

What's happened to Adobe?

2006-12-06T17:44:00.000Z

Adobe is a company I used to admire. I first came across them in the mid-80's when I worked at the investment bank/venture capital company that brought them public (to much fanfare). I was an early user of postscript in the first Apple laser printers which I thought was marvellous (too often I was encouraged to buy technology from one of our "investments", but this one I jumped at myself).

I've never been a user of Acrobat (though I use pdf documents all the time, and think they're great), and I've only touched Photoshop on the odd occasion.

But in the last week, I've witnessed a number of things which make me think that Adobe is no longer a company I admire and has adopted some of the dubious tactics of one or two other software companies I loathe (I'm sure I don't need to mention that one is based in Redmond, but I will).

First off, I had to install Photoshop on 2 machines. My partner had bought the upgrade package for her Photoshop a year ago, and encountered problems installing it due to licensing issues (though she was the original and only owner of the old version she had). It sat on our to-do list for a while, and then the theft of the machine put an end to that!

So, we had to get a new Photoshop license. That was as much as £199 or so for an academic license - and you had to provide serious proof for qualification as an academic - certainly far more than for Microsoft Office for example (available to education users for under £100). This package is not a universal application, and will be obsoleted in just a few months by CS3. Installing it was quite painful with many different applications getting installed, (in applications you get Adobe Bridge, Adobe Help Center, and a CS2 folder which has at least 2 applications; Adobe Reader has its own folder; in Utilities Adobe Reader Manager, Adobe Updater and an Adobe Utilities folder. I have no idea what some of these do (eg Adobe Bridge?). The installer also created two processes to be run at login - one which checks for new updates on login for all Adobe products installed. Removing the application from a Mac would be quite difficult methinks.

Now, the upgrade package was wasted, until I decided that I might at least update my own sad Photoshop v4. I had perhaps used this about twice - mainly for conversion of images, but I decided perhaps I'd try to improve some of my photos. The box made no mention of which Photoshops could be upgraded, so I tried it. The installer wanted the old license to be found, so I pointed it at the old Photoshop application. It did not want to do the upgrade. However, I found that entering the license manually gave me a fully authorised copy. My version DID install Adobe Reader version 7.0 something. After installing, the package needed to install updates as well, and this took an age. Less, than a week later, it was telling me my Adobe Reader was out of date and I needed 7.0.7.

OK, perhaps this is all a bit pedantic - after all it's a complex application. But it was my Adobe Reader experience that convinced me they have some serious problems.

My partner was experiencing difficulties with some PDF's, so to find out if it was Preview or Safari, I thought we should download Adobe Reader on her machine. It so happened this was the day that Adobe Reader 8.0 became available. Now, I tend to think of Adobe Reader as a somewhat simple application. But it has become a monster. To install it, you have to download the Adobe Reader Installer. When you install this, it in turn starts an Adobe Reader download which gives you a second installer that you must run. The application itself was over 20MB. Having installed that we noticed that it had taken over the role of displaying PDF's from Preview without asking. I opened up the application to see what was new. I always like to look at an applications Preferences as a guide to what it can do. Adobe Reader has 24 categories of preferences! Adobe has lost the plot I'm afraid. Reader should be a simple pdf viewer that the average user can understand. Anyone without a computing qualification is going to immediately turn off when they see this (incidentally, the preferences categories are just a list of text items - no icons).

Since installing all these things, I've also had to turn off and reject numerous annoying questions/reminders etc from Adobe about everything from making the application(s) default, to checking for updates, etc.

Am I being too harsh on them, or have they forgotten how to put the user first?

Tags: Adobe, Photoshop, Reader, Apple

Christmas Gift Idea (A Book!)

2006-12-03T13:50:00.000Z

In a diversion from the usual stuff I write about here, I wanted to pass on a recommendation for a cookery book to those interested in such things (or, better perhaps, know someone who is).

The book is called Silk Road Cooking - A Vegetarian Journey (and that's the Amazon US link) by Najmieh Batmanglij. It's also available in hardback. I got it in a real bookshop - at Waterstones in fact - so it is certainly available in the UK too.

Sure, it's a vegetarian cookbook, but don't let that put you off. This book covers recipes from Italy through to China via many countries in between (including just about every -stan you can think of). There are herbs and spices in this that I've never had before. We've tried many dishes from the book and all have been very enjoyable. Not only that, the recipes are quite quick to make too. An additional benefit is the beautiful layout of the book.

You may need access to a Mediterranean or Middle East food shop for some of the more esoteric ingredients, but most you should be able to find at a good shop. (I got one or two from thespiceshop.co.uk in Notting Hill Gate whose proprietor noted she's never seen a savoury dish using Angelica powder!).

This would be a popular gift for any cooks you know! Highly recommended.

(Edited post to add author's name!)

Tags: Silk Road, Vegetarian, Book, Recipe,
Batmanglij

Microsoft's Vista will be a humongous success

2006-11-30T20:29:00.000Z

You may not have expected the title to come from me, but really I wanted to state the obvious.

According to the FT, there are 8 times the number of PC's in use compared to when Windows95 was released (800 million vs 100 million). Furthermore, it has been a full 5 years since the release of Windows XP. That has to provide a pent-up demand itself. Previously, Microsoft had updates every few years, so many Windows 2000 users didn't upgrade to XP for instance, even if Windows 98 users did.

So, there is little doubt that Vista will break all records that Microsoft chooses to use to publicise its success, and we will see plenty of such mentions over the next year. And anyone fighting such statistics is basically delusional. (The only question will be whether it is "phenomenally, fantastically successful", or just "successful"; and that will depend on personal interpretation).

But Vista's release is important in many, many ways beyond just number of installations, including:
- It lets Microsoft plant a stake in the ground saying we DO understand security and we've SOLVED it - calm down. You can trust us, after all.
- In the past, you had to have strong reasons NOT to go Microsoft - you were shutting yourself from all sorts of compatibility and functionality. Nowadays, the proliferation of devices including mobiles, laptops, media extenders, and general consumer electronics, blurs the boundaries of the past. The internet and the general "connectedness" of everything means that the average user no longer HAS to go Microsoft. They increasingly have a choice again. Whether Vista is on 80%, 90% or 98% of PC's may not matter when there are many more devices than just PC's.
- It is the basis for Microsoft's one shot at dominating the living room. More than any other company, Microsoft's home strategy needs people to welcome Vista AND to actually use it the way it was intended.

Vista is MS's best shot (and a compromised, late one at that) at keeping and extending it's virtual monopoly on devices that are primarily computers. But Vista enters the market at a different time than XP. A time when a new set of competitors and new technologies have emerged. A time when we use many devices that each have a processor inside running an OS of sorts and providing various bits of functionality. A time when the OS itself no longer provides the true differentiation or, particularly of concern for Microsoft, the lock-in.

In time, Vista will be considered as the last great hurrah of the proprietary OS. There will never be a software release as significant to so many people and businesses. Even Microsoft, by all accounts, never wants something so big again. Reading some recent blog posts about how it took a team of 24 people plus managers (for a total of 43) to decide and code the Shutdown/Sleep functionality, is evidence enough that such an approach is unsustainable.

From here onwards, Microsoft's financial success will be based around how it milks it's huge (and still-growing) installed base, how it maintains the massive intertia and slows the switch away from it's dominant software, and whether it can truly make profitable it's newer initiatives. (My own views are that on 1 and 2 it will do well, and on the 3rd will continue to disappoint).

The next key battleground is in the Office software space. With Office 2007 released simultaneously with Vista, this is symbolic. Until now, anyone who wanted to co-exist in the business space would have been forced to use Microsoft Office. I know that without Office for Mac, I would not have been able to hold out on the Mac platform. The key to this was not unparalleled functionality but closed file formats. If you could not receive a Word document, edit it and send it back to be read without issue by the sender, you would be considered IT-defective. While OpenOffice has made some inroads here, and allowed Linux users some ability to co-exist, it has not been a good enough substitute for many business users for many reasons. With the Office file formats now becoming open, this barrier will now be significantly reduced - a key reason why Microsoft resisted it for so long. Between Google, OpenOffice and other similar initiatives, if the monopoly that is MS Office is broken, then that is the last key blockage towards true interoperability and collaboration across hardware and software platforms (Microsoft came close to establishing both IE and also Media Player as similar monopolies, but has probably failed to do so).

Microsoft has proven itself ruthless and astute at building monopolies and virtual monopolies, and maintaining those in the face of new competition. It has done this on the back of two dominant franchises - DOS/Windows and Office. Both were more than just compelling products - they caused problems to users who did not assimilate. That is not a way to win long-term friends and supporters. But there has been no major new technology from Microsoft that is truly outstanding and field-leading since at least XP, and possibly before that. The parallels are greatest perhaps with IBM - that indisputable champion of the late 70's and early 80's, but that remains a strong, profitable and influential company today. That is Microsoft's fate. It's timing will depend as much on it's competitors failings (e.g Sony's failure with PS3 giving XBox360 a window), as it's own management of that decline. It will no doubt have many successes in the future, but hopefully nothing that is so dominant and that results in such mediocrity from itself and the rest of the IT world hangers-on or leads to grudging acceptance from the worldwide PC userbase at large because they have no alternative.

For me personally, I expect I will buy a copy of Vista eventually to run on a Mac under Bootcamp or Parallels for the same reasons that I had an on-off relationship with VirtualPC at times. I also expect to buy Office 2008 for the Mac. But I truly expect and hope that these will be the last pieces of Microsoft software that I ever HAVE to buy.

History may well look back and see IBM as THE hardware monopoly and Microsoft as THE software monopoly. Let's hope that history doesn't write about a services monopoly, as there's only one name in the frame for that at this time.

Welcome, Vista, may the best man win (but not win big enough to be another monopoly).

Tags: Microsoft, Vista, Google, Apple

Mac anti-theft Software

2006-11-26T17:01:00.000Z

My friend Tom mentioned in a comment to the post on the theft of one of our Macs about LoJack software that he'd installed on his machines.

I've been meaning to write about something similar I found called Undercover from Orbicule. Should I be paranoid and not write to the world at large that my Macs have anti-theft software installed? Well, dammit. I'm sure the 3 of you that read this blog are honest people! And, is it not a good test of such software that it can't easily be disabled?

Undercover looked interesting to me as it is specifically Mac software. Among other features, Orbicule make the claim that, once activated, their software will make use of installed iSight cameras to take photos of the machine user! Cool (if our police force can be bothered to do anything with the information of course!). Such features are on top of the ones we would expect such as IP address reporting, etc.

I was also intrigued how Undercover would work if the thief just erased the disk. Using firmware passwords in most recent PowerPC and Intel Macs makes this quite difficult to do (though the user must set these up).

An attraction of Undercover was the family pack license for up to 5 Macs for just $10 more ($49 instead of $39).

However, the proof with both LoJack and Undercover is when they're needed. I hope neither Tom nor I have to experience that! I'd welcome comments from users of either of these pieces of software - especially about experiences good or bad when they really needed it. Both products are welcome entrants to the MacOS software marketplace.

Tags: Apple, MacBook, Orbicule, Undercover, LoJack, anti-theft

Stolen Powerbook QT2010P3M2N & Reward!

2006-11-23T18:27:00.000Z

I mentioned a few weeks ago about my partner's stolen Powerbook model. I've now been able to retrieve the serial number.

We would be very grateful if someone locates and returns this model and will make it worth their while. It contains some important scientific data on it which unfortunately has not successfully been retrieved from backups.

The model is as follows:
Apple Powerbook Titanium G4 667Mhz DVI/higher res screen.

There is the standard 30GB hard disk, but with 512MB RAM and an airport card. I can provide the airport MAC id for this machine.

The serial number of the machine is QT2010P3M2N

There is also a higher capacity battery present by Newertech, giving excellent battery life. The power supply was also stolen and is a later model Powerbook charger (white end rather than silver).

The machine is in generally good and working condition. However, the casing is very worn above and around the CD insertion, and there is a noticeable scratch on the right side by the airport. The screen is fine but with markings from the keyboard as per normal with such models.

User accounts are password protected and login is required. A smart thief will just have re-installed the OS. It was probably running 10.4.8 but might have been on 10.4.6 or 7.

If you do spot this machine on eBay or somewhere else - perhaps being sold by someone who clearly doesn't know a Powerbook from a Dell Crapitude, please contact me via this site.

Tags: stolen, Powerbook G4, Mac, Apple, Serial

MacBook Pro C2D Video Performance

2006-11-14T20:34:00.000Z

In my recent quick first impressions of the MacBook Pro C2D I mentioned about doing some video tests. Here are some results.

Test Machine 1: MacBook Pro C2D 2.33Ghz, 2GB, 160GB 5400 rpm drive.
Test Machine 2: Powerbook G4 1.67Ghz hires, 1.5GB, 120GB 5400 rpm drive.

The Powerbook had been running for some time, and dashboard apps had been loaded. But all other apps had been quit. Free disk space is down to about 11GB though. On the MBP, no other apps were running in my space, but I was in Fast user switching mode with mail and safari running in the other user's space.

Test:
I took a 1.32 minute DV file from a camcorder and converted it to H.264 at 640 by 480 resolution with "Go Nuts" quality (ie ultimate) using the wonderful utility iSquint (v 1.5). I also specified De-interlace (otherwise a PAL DV looks real bad), and set size to 1500kbps (max possible for iPod ready movies). I checked both movies for quality and compatibility with a first gen iPod video. Both movies were superb, similar in end size and were sharper than the DV file though lacking in a bit of detail (eg trees were sharper, but tyre treads were less detailed).

Result:
The MBP completed the conversion in 2 minutes and 24 seconds. The Powerbook G4 took 10 minutes and 53 seconds. A factor of 4.5 times slower. In addition the MBP had around 20% idle time for most of the test. The Powerbook had zero idle time throughout running on max. Presumably (though I did not try) I could have done a few less demanding tasks on the MBP.

When performing the same task at 320x240 resolution (native iPod) the file was converted in faster than realtime on the MBP - 64 seconds (for a 92 second file) versus around 5 minutes on the Powerbook G4. An interesting aside is that the end result files whether 640x480 or 320x240 are the same total size - the key being the data rate I guess which is the same 1500kbps. So, no disk space penalty for having iPod-compatible files at 640x480 resolution (though a time penalty for conversion).

While limited to one application (iSquint) this confirms my original view that the new MBP's are massively improved over the last generation Powerbook G4s. This factor of 4.5x plus headroom is very impressive indeed.

Tags: Apple, MacBook Pro, Core 2 Duo, Intel, iSquint, H.264

Congestion Charge Rant

2006-11-14T19:09:00.000Z

Those who don't know me may think the following rant is from a car-loving, card-carrying-Conservative. But while I do confess to having a rather nice car, I would like to point out that my travelling around London is done almost exclusively by bicycle with a bit of public transport thrown in (therefore 5.5 years = 26,000 miles). I have never once needed to pay a congestion charge fee (and nor have I ever needed to pay a parking fine in the UK). Furthermore, I think driving into and around Central London needs to be curtailed and I am in favour in principle of schemes which try to ration that space especially for purposes of aiding efficient commerce. Finally, I am of course in favour of finding ways to reduce environmental damage.

Last year, I spent many (angry) hours over my keyboard writing to my MP and local councillors about the scheme to extend the zone westwards to include Kensington and Chelsea. Not that I am averse to this in principle, but it's implementation is in my opinion, brain-damaged. You may criticise my views as nimbyist, but I reassert my GENERAL support for such a scheme. My particular beef concerns the ability of vehicles to use the Embankment on the river to travel the East-West direction outside of the zone. Apart from obvious bottlenecks that will be made worse, I have observed that for a resident of Battersea, they can make a journey out to, say, Heathrow, without entering the congestion charge zone, as indeed can most residents of South London and out to Kent. But the Battersea resident returning home will be signposted through about 200 metres of congestion charge zone in order to access either of the bridges into the area. A right turn is not permitted. I have been told that such a driver should make a detour of approximately 3 miles to enter the area turning right over Chelsea Bridge (which will be even more congested). So much for congestion charging being an environmental measure when a detour of 3 miles is required (or payment of £8 and see next paragraph). The driver going further to more eastward parts of South London however, would not have to make such a turn and therefore pay no penalty. Therefore the scheme is unreasonably discriminatory towards Battersea residents. The obvious solution was to allow a right turn on Battersea Bridge. An alternative would have been to eliminate the final southwestern block of about 200m by 100m from the charging scheme. Neither were done despite "extensive consultation". White van man will find a way of course to turn right, and over time even law-abiding citizens will do the obvious thing and make a u-turn on the main embankment past the first bridge so they can legally turn left over the bridge. Not a particularly safe thing to do, but better than 3 miles+20 minutes, or £8.

But today, what has got me more incensed is this news from the department of Red Ken. By 2009 the congestion charge for Category G vehicles will be increased by a factor of 3x such that it costs £25 to enter the zone no matter how far you drive or drive in it. A Category G vehicle includes many of the SUV, 4x4 type of vehicle as well as many people carriers. Of course, many sports cars and higher performance vehicles also come into this category. Strangely it would not affect me because (even if I did use my car) my vehicle is older than the cutoff date (another weakness with the scheme in principle). Now, I believe London would be better for less 4x4's and people carriers. But I believe London would be better off with less cars in general (at least moving ones). Sure polluters need to pay, but to have a scheme which is so black and white as to penalise a car emitting a theoretical 224g/km £8 when penalising a car emitting a theoretical 225g/km £25 is plain ridiculous. It is no longer a tax on congestion or an environmental tax, but the worst sort of tax - a tax borne out of chip-on-the-shoulder left-leaning cheap politics. You're better off having an £8 car and driving it like mad than you are having a £25 car and driving it carefully. Other bad behaviours are encouraged - drive as much in the congestion charge zone as you like for instance. (Aside: Why should taxis and users of taxis make no contribution towards congestion charge for instance? Answer = taxi drivers lobby pressurising Ken)

It is quite obvious what the right thing to do. For the environment it is to tax consumption - therefore the price of fuel. This penalises bad drivers, those who maintain their car badly as well as bigger/heavier/less fuel-efficient vehicles. It also encourages good behaviour. For congestion, the logical response is to penalise movement - especially movement at bad times of the day. By all means make that cost higher the larger/heavier the vehicle (we all know people carriers and large 4x4s are less efficient at navigating narrow roads and junctions and therefore make congestion worse) and by all means have an environmental factor applied. But to make it so ludicrously out of proportion does not fix the problem. A 224g/km driving 5 miles in the zone is far more polluting and congestion-generating than a 225g/km car driving just 300m. Attack the problem head-on if you want to change the behaviour!

It will neither make London a cleaner or less congested City to live in, and nor will it help the environment (note significant increase in new cars bought to squeeze under congestion charge limit will benefit the German economy and damage the German environment where they are primarily built!).

It is Ken at his worst and most vindictive.

[/End rant]

Tags: London, Ken Livingstone, Congestion Charge

Cheeky Little Apple Announcement

2006-11-14T15:52:00.000Z

On Zune launch day, Apple announced that six major world airlines would be providing direct iPod support into their entertainment systems over the next few years.

Once again, Apple moves out ahead, and makes it harder for other entrants. Openness in the consumer electronics world is something different than in the PC world. If I can play my music wherever I need it - in the home, on my computer(s), on my phone, in my car, on an aeroplane, is this worse than having a multitude of choice but needing a different device for each activity? If the price for having music everywhere is a £179/$249 iPod is that so bad? The resounding answer is "No". And such an announcement just makes the investment more compelling.

In the good old days you bought a multitude of playback devices for each purpose (each room you wanted music in, a portable for on-the-go; and a car player as well as one or more recording devices to convert to a different format). You also needed to carry your media around too. Now all you need is your computer and one (or more) iPods and you've got it all covered. Your music, your photos, your videos, your life, wherever and whenever you need it - at home, on the train, in the car, and even in the air.

This is a bigger announcement than it looks right now.

Tags: Apple, iPod, Airline

Just one more...

2006-11-14T15:23:00.000Z

Okay, you've twisted my arm, so I shall twist the knife one more time...

An hilarious CNN TV review of the Zune hijacked by the with-it anchorwoman.

It's so sad we'll be waiting until 2008 to get Zune in the UK and Europe. It appears to be so bad that even Jack Schofield of Guardian fame would have had to write a negative article on it.

Tags: Microsoft, Zune

Microsoft, what were you thinking (3)?

2006-11-14T13:47:00.000Z

Hilarious (though long) account of the Zune installation process over at Engadget.

Did they really think it would be so easy (to topple the iPod)? What's with these awful images on the install process? After all the fuss about WMP11, they don't even use it - preferring yet another flavour of jukebox software. I can see transitive versions of the verb Zune becoming quite a derogatory term, as in "My PC got zuned". Not a very good start.

Tags: Microsoft, Zune

Microsoft, what were you thinking (2)?

2006-11-10T19:38:00.000Z

Ars Technica covers this one well. As usual, the comments give a good idea of the views of the geek community. If it's 90% in one direction, that's usually a good pointer.

This is a ridiculous move. If I buy my music legally (as I do) why should I support this? And what happens to the small independents, or the average independents? Why should I pay twice?

I think this shows how things really would go if Microsoft owned this market.

Tags: Microsoft, Zune, Universal

Microsoft, what were you thinking (1)?

2006-11-10T19:28:00.000Z

Jack Schofield at the Guardian just reported the facts a few weeks ago (see my critique then). And since, we understand, Zune won't come to Europe for another year plus (!), he won't (shouldn't) be reviewing it anytime soon. But here's a few mainstream US reporters on the Zune:

Walt Mossberg at Wall Street Journal.

David Pogue NY Times (hope this link works, but I'm sure you can find it)

David Ewalt, Forbes

Of course, if you read Daring Fireball, you'd have known most of this back in July with the wonderful Magic-8-ball interview! Amazingly, it seems that it is even worse than predicted!

Tags: Microsoft, Zune, Daring Fireball, iPod

MacBook Pro C2D First Impressions

2006-11-09T17:19:00.000Z

As I mentioned last week, my partner's tired old Titanium Powerbook G4 was stolen on about the same day the new Core 2 Duo MacBook Pros (MBP) were announced - perhaps the only silver lining to that event.

We eventually placed her order on the Apple Education store last Wednesday, and received the machine yesterday - under a week, and all the way from Shanghai. The machine is a 2.33Ghz, 2GB RAM model with 160GB hard drive.

I was interested to do a quick comparison with my last-generation Powerbook G4 Hi-res that I got about a year ago to see how much things have changed. My, what a difference!

To look at, there's very little that's obvious, though the new model is noticeably thinner (and a tad wider). Due to the addition of a Firewire800 port on the new MBP model, it actually looks closer to the Powerbook than the first MBP model. Because of the thinness, the DVD slot is quite low - which looks a little odd. With the PB, the slot and screen-release button are aligned neatly, something which I'm sure makes Jonathan Ive happy. But only a true geek would be able to instantly identify a MBP over a last-gen PBG4 from a glance.

Inside, of course is a different story. I was interested in the hard drive model used. There has been a bit of criticism of Apple's failure to provide a 7200rpm option in the new model. But I had guessed that the 160GB option at 5400rpm would use perpendicular technology. By closer packing of the bits, this actually means the 25% slower rotation is essentially negated by the being able to read more bits. While I don't have the data to prove it, I would imagine a 5400rpm 160GB drive would perform not far off a 100GB 7200rpm drive for most situations.

Well, I'm pleased to report that the drive in this model is a Hitachi perpendicular device, and it's XBench disk scores were considerably better than my 1 year old Seagate 120GB 5400 rpm disk (which itself was well-reviewed). While some of the difference is undoubtedly down to my disk being much fuller than the MBP, I'm sure the Hitachi performs admirably indeed. Sure, if someone made a 7200rpm 160GB disk, that would be great. But right now, I don't think they do. So, with the 160GB I think most people will be happy, and it would make sense for Apple not to offer a lower capacity 7200rpm drive. (Not sure about the 200GB 4200rpm drive though).

The new MBP screen (we went for the matte one), is just wonderful, and seems quite a bit brighter than my hi-res Powerbook (which itself was supposedly much brighter than the previous PB). It does lack 60 pixels in height (due to inclusion of the iSight I guess), but that gives it a slightly better fit to wide-screen movies.

Airport reception seems much improved. I've never been able to see other networks from our home with our powerbooks or mac mini. But I saw 3 others with the MBP. It's a pity the Apple Airport Monitor application does not seem to work on Intel macs (well it works, but it doesn't graph). So I can't see it's real throughput.

But of course, the key differences are not about the hard drive, screen or airport, it's about performance and there is no question this machine is massively faster. Xbench scores were nearly all around 2x better, with many between 3x and 4x improved. The user interface test gave a 10x improvement. While my Powerbook has slightly less RAM (1.5GB) and had a couple of apps running, with an 80% full hard disk, I don't think this would have accounted for too much of the difference (and I'm not about to do a clean install to find out).

But I'm not interested in benchmarks like this per se. Real world use is what's important, and the new MBP flies. Web pages are rendered incredibly quickly. Perhaps that will slow down as caches etc fill up (at least that's my past experience), but it is really near-instantaneous now. I converted an MP3 file at 168kbps VBR to a 160kbps AAC to see how quickly it would do it. All done in 8 seconds. The exact same operation took 25 seconds on the PB. The whole user interface felt very responsive indeed including using Dashboard.

I'm quite critical of a lot of the performance tests run on by many publications. For instance, I've seen a lot of stuff written that multi-core computers don't help much if the application isn't properly multi-threaded. But that completely ignores the fact that most people these days are doing several things on their computer at once. My ideal Mac would be something that converts video/music quickly while letting me surf and work as fast as usual. I'd like a Mac that can record off EyeTV while letting me do my usual work without penalty. Mixing usage like that slows my current PB down significantly, and I have avoided doing much video work. Right now I have 10 applications open and some of those are doing simultaneous work. So, a note to testers out there - create some real-life performance tests with mixed usage, please!

I'll be doing a few H.264 conversions over the next few days and seeing how those stack up. I think there will be a huge improvement there.

But right now, I'd say this machine is an incredible leap forward - by both Intel and Apple. For a quite a bit less than I paid just 12 months ago (helped by a great education price admittedly), there's a machine with 2-3x real-world performance improvements, 40GB extra storage, 0.5GB extra RAM, built-in iSight and Magsafe. I don't think it's just about the PowerPC G4 being long-in-the-tooth - I suspect similar performance gains would be seen against last year's single-core Pentium M models.

I made my own decision last year (failing to anticipate that the MBP's would come along so quickly!), and so will stick with my existing PB until next year. Then we should have the Intel "Santa Rosa" platform inside bumping bus speeds to 800Mhz, adding flash storage for performance/battery life gains, as well as 802.11n, WiMax and other wireless technology support. Perhaps with Leopard supporting resolution independence, we'll also see some full HD models too? I'm looking at around Easter for all of this excitement, assuming I can wait!

If there's anything you'd like to know, do post a comment here and I'll see if I can "borrow" the machine again for a bit of "investigative" blogging!

Tags: Apple, MacBook Pro, Core 2 Duo, Intel

Nice Photo (2)

2006-11-07T13:15:00.000Z

On Monday evening I was cycling back over Battersea Bridge, and observed the moon rising over Albert. I rushed back to get my camera (and tripod) and snapped another load of shots of my favourite Thames Bridge. If you look carefully below the moon in the second shot, there's a glimpse of the London Eye.

I'm a bit disappointed about not being able to capture the moon's detail - I think that's a dynamic range issue that I can only overcome with a much better camera of som clever multiple shot/combination image. I have managed to get a good moon shot - when in India, but in daylight. You can see this on my webpage linked to here if you're interested. Any good photographers who are willing to share the secrets of how to do a good moon photo on a landscape are welcome to comment here!

Nice Photo (1)

2006-11-07T13:02:00.000Z

Out in Herefordshire on Sunday was an amazing sunset across much of the sky. I took lots of snaps, none of which can capture the true beauty, but here's a couple to give you an idea.

MacII heads to landfill

2006-11-03T18:42:00.000Z

It was a sad day today when, while visiting my mum, I took my old MacII down to the recycling centre (c'mon, I just wrote the headline to attract the Greenpeace brigade).

It had sat in a cupboard since being replaced by the iBook G4 last year, and hadn't been used for a few years previously by my mum. Nevertheless, as a machine that was manufactured in February 1987 - so almost 20 years old - it has had a long life. I know the manufacture date because I took the lid off to remove the hard drive - an 80MB superfast model that I bought separately at the time. Inside the top was written the date of manufacture with a marker pen! It struck me how well-engineered this box was - particulary the way the top came off and how the Nu-bus cards could be added/removed - neither actions requiring a screwdriver. The monitor, keyboard and box itself where all of very solid construction indeed.

I think this was my second (or maybe my third) home Mac, but my first colour one (was it the first colour Mac?) and cost upwards of $5,000 at the time when I was in the US. At then exchange rates, that was around £4,000!

In an ideal world of course, I'd have kept this, but really it wasn't in good enough condition to be a museum piece. For my mum, I think the last straw came when she opened the cupboard and had the monitor fall on her head! So, out it went. In disposing of it, I was amazed at the lack of options available to us for recycling such devices in this country, and I hope that will soon change.

I had a great time with my MacII and it was a revolution at the time. Next week we should be welcoming a MacBook Pro CD2 into the household (though not for me unfortunately - it is to replace a Titanium G4 PowerBook stolen from my partner's workplace). It makes me realise how much things have changed. 2,000times the disk storage, 500 times the memory (I think I had 4MB), and a processor that is clockwise 300 times more powerful than the 16Mhz Motorola 68020 (but not allowing for other chip improvements), all in a portable device a fraction of the size and weight, and for a price about 1/4 of what I paid for the Mac system!

I apologise for the quiet posting lately. Got a few articles in the works, so stay subscribed...

Tags: Apple, Mac II, MacBook Pro, recycle

The Media and Science...

2006-10-23T18:11:00.000+01:00

Heard at the end of a BBC Oxford traffic announcement while driving down from a weekend in Edinburgh (more on that soon):

Scientists say eating a Mediterranean diet reduces the risk of Alzheimers Disease; for the truth, we speak with a nutritionist.

Tags: BBC, Science, Media

Once a monopoly....

2006-10-18T11:17:00.000+01:00

There is a big brouhaha going on around the blogosphere about Microsoft's new EULA (license agreement) for Windows Vista. The basic issue is that a user license (not an OEM license which is even more highly restricted) will no longer allow you to transfer the license as you see fit. You will have just one opportunity to move the license to another machine after de-activating it on the original machine it is installed on. Thereafter you have to buy another.

Credit to Paul Thurrott (who originally said it wasn't a big deal) for giving space to Koroush Ghazi who has written an excellent rebuttal of why the new EULA is actually very unreasonable and will hurt the very people that are some of Microsoft's biggest customers (and fans).

Ars Technica has posted an article on the subject too with it's usual impartiality, though I think it's being a little trusting when assuming that just because Microsoft didn't enforce some of the restrictions with XP, that it won't enforce some of them with Vista. As usual, the comments to the Ars story give a good idea about what the majority think. When the comments are 90% plus against something, perhaps it's time to take notice!

My impression is that it will hurt a lot of enthusiasts who build their own machines, as well as those who use one or more Windows environments in a virtual setup. That will include some Mac users too who wish to use either BootCamp or solutions such as Parallels to run one or more Windows environments.

Could they have done it differently? Well, yes, of course they could. It seems to me a much fairer choice would be to allow people to deauthorise a computer and then re-authorise another as many times as you wanted (within reason). That's the way the iTunes Store works.

For someone to pay good money for a software license and have it limited to only running on the next 2 computers they own (and reduce that to just one if you have a catastrophic hardware failure) seems like the Microsoft of old - taking its customers for granted. I know of no other software company that would impose such a limit on retail software. Shame on you Microsoft.

Tags: Microsoft, Vista, EULA, Paul Thurrott, Ars Technica

How (not) to fix Airbus

2006-10-13T17:01:00.000+01:00

As a European (and an ex-plane spotter!) it is sad to see the situation that Airbus has found itself in lately. It managed to take the talent of wilting country civil aerospace programmes and show that such talent with reasonable investment could compete with the best. (The ongoing debate about tax breaks is too much for here, but I would argue that the US companies have benefited from effectively similar breaks at state level, and particularly through Federal defence spending).

While Boeing descended into despair with its own management failings, corruption and older aircraft, Airbus seemed to go from strength to strength - and in the process perhaps vindicating that the Chirac/French Establishment view of European industrial collaboration COULD be successful.

Now, as most of the problems appear out in the open (I hope), it's quite clear that all is not well and hasn't been for some time. The business of civil aircraft development is a tough one indeed. But success and change can only be talked about in terms of decades, not years. What is worrying however is how when problems happen governments resort to interventionist behaviour.

Read this article from the BBC to see what I mean. The focus is on Chirac (as usual) supposedly batting for the French worker, but in fact undermining efficient corporate governance which in the long run will cost the very jobs he so wants to protect. But, he's not alone. Even right wing Angela Merkel is considering the German government intervening to buy the shares from Daimler Chrysler (that will help their debt problem). And, of course, Spain is considering doubling its stake to safeguard the jobs in its own country.

Nothing of course from the UK. I come from near the main factory that builds the wing assemblies for most Airbus aircraft. They have transformed themselves from a business jet building factory to an efficient provider of leading edge (sorry for the aviation pun) wings, even as the pound has risen. There will probably be no UK government help for them (as indeed there shouldn't be). But how that must irk when their supposed colleagues are getting taxpayer subsidies to put them out of a job.

Will France ever get a government that is prepared to be honest with its population and show that it must grasp change not fight it? How long can the average French citizen really believe that massive subsidies to small contingents (farmers, state-run firms, etc) are really a good use of their taxes? I have a high regard for most French people I've met as individuals. They're not stupid, and their country has a great amount to offer the world.

But, if Chirac goes ahead with his plans and dictats, Airbus will be a weaker international competitor in a market of just two companies. That will be a waste of an opportunity that has been won by hard work and European ingenuity.

Tags: Airbus, Chirac, EU

Imaginative Terrorism

2006-10-12T15:55:00.000+01:00

While terrorism is not of course to be laughed at, I had to confess to a snicker or two as I read this story at the BBC today.

The defendant also plotted to blow up three limousines "packed" with gas cylinders and explosives in underground car parks in the UK, the court heard.

The story goes on to say how the plot was known as "the Gas Limos Project". Thus distinguishing it from the parallel "dirty bomb project". I haven't been to terrorism school myself, but I might take a guess that one of the first lessons learned should be about how to conceal your activities, and that perhaps a little more invention is required for naming projects than this?

Bad Decision #2: Science Education

2006-10-11T19:13:00.000+01:00

The second bad news story of the day was about changes to science education in the UK.

It's not often I agree with Richard Sykes, rector of my alma mater, Imperial College, but his comment was exactly my initial reaction:

"Science should inform the news agenda, not the other way round"

Is it too cynical to suggest that at least some of this thinking came about along the following lines: "How can we solve our problem of lack of science teachers?" "How about changing the curriculum so we can use all those unemployed media studies students?".

If you want to write an essay about how bad GM is, then that's for English classes. If you want to understand, that's science. The consequences of this sort of change are monumental and will only be felt by subsequent generations. We need the Royal Society and other bodies to stand up and fight such changes NOW.

Bad Decision #1: Alzheimers Drugs

2006-10-11T09:41:00.000+01:00

News from the BBC today about the Government's refusal (via it's cost/benefit arm - NICE) to sanction the use of certain drugs in combating Alzheimer's.

I have first-hand experience of this situation, and all I can say is the reaction from one person after finally getting the treatment "I've got my husband back". Sure, it wasn't for a long time, but the benefits were tangible. The costs, at £2.50 a day, are surely trivial compared with the other costs both obvious and hidden? Indeed, subsequent costs such as attendance allowances, were way in excess of this sum. Independence and relief was given for £2.50 a day. My regret is that we didn't search this treatment out much sooner when the benefits could have been greater. Again, I have serious concerns that policy is to avoid for as long as possible producing a rational diagnosis that places costs on the system that does the diagnosis. Getting appointments at so-called "memory clinics" is a far-too-torturous process and allows the disease to progress from mild to moderate before any treatment can be attained.

Contrast this with NHS Breast Enlargement Treatment, or NHS IVF and we have I'm afraid lost sight of our priorities.

Upgraded to Beta Blogger

2006-10-10T18:37:00.000+01:00

I've just upgraded Hobsblog to try out some of the new Blogger.com features (on beta of course in usual Google style) which include a comments feed, and also categories (finally). I'll be using these and other features over the coming weeks. Do let me know any questions/comments on the changes.

The url for the dashboard is "beta.blogger" (beta blocker!). Typical Google.

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

2006-10-05T19:37:00.000+01:00

A couple of notes about Jon Stewart's The Daily Show (which, Charles, I know is on Freeview More4 - channel 13 - at 8.30pm most weekday nights, but I'd still like to be able to buy some shows from iTunes!).

Today, "scientific" research has been reported via Ars Technica proving that The Daily Show's news content is as substantive as "real news" (but also a whole lot funnier)!

Last week, Jon got the scoop with an interview with President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan! I can't imagine Tony Blair being interviewed on this, and neither would he come off as cleverly as did Musharraf. It was better and more enlightening than most other political interviews I've seen in recent years.

Do yourself a favour and watch the Monday night highlights - World Edition - from the previous week's shows! 20 minutes very well spent.

Tags: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

The Weather

2006-10-05T19:21:00.000+01:00

Back when we had the scorcher in July, my blogging friend otan2 beat me to the punch with this post noting how much higher the average temperature had been for the WHOLE of July in Scotland. I commented that the England figure was slightly higher still at 3.6Celsius over normal.

August of course was a different kettle of fish entirely - a real washout and disappointment. But strangely, the average temperature in England was still above normal - though only just. Given one of the worst Augusts that I can remember, that was amazing to me.

Now the September figures are in, and once again the month was 3.2C above the normal average in England and Wales.

These are statistically massive variations, and we should be very worried indeed by the range of variation and especially that even cool wet months are warmer than typical good summer months.

While I know that this is just the English weather and doesn't get too much attention outside these shores, I'm assuming these extremes are being regularly repeated elsewhere around the globe. George Bush: How many Katrinas is it going to take for you to wake up? (or to put it in a completely different American-only context: Do you not think the negative influences of states like Iran and Venezuela would fade if America made major strides to reduce its dependence on oil?).

Tags: Climate, Kyoto, UK Met Office

Boris Johnson - Eccentric or Prat?

2006-10-05T18:47:00.000+01:00

Those who know me, know that I am NOT a Tory - at least of the Thatcher kind. I sit somewhere in the middle ground - perhaps a ground that used to be occupied by the Lib Dems until they lost touch with reality. Neither am I a supporter of privileged private school educations - especially Eton.

So, on the surface, I should think that Boris Johnson is a complete idiot who represents the worst type of private-school delusional right wing views imaginable.

Recently, Boris has come under sustained fire for a number of "gaffes", encapsulated here in the Guardian recently.

William Hague - former Tory leader for my American friends - called him eccentric in a niceish way.

But I actually think "eccentric" is an unfair term and shows just how politically correct our politics have become, stifling debate because we won't call a spade a spade. Do we have to label people as eccentric just because they say something controversial. Boris may be eccentric, but not for much of what's he's said.

A couple of years ago, Boris was forced to eat humble pie in Liverpool after criticising the people for wallowing in "disproportionate grief" over the murder of Ken Bigley in Iraq. But, Boris was absolutely right. I am, of course, a scouser, and therefore able so say such things (another indication of our politically correct society when only a person of that group is allowed to criticise it). Liverpool is a wonderful place, and there are wonderful people there. But for too long it HAS wallowed in self-pity. It would rather receive handouts than do what it has to (I can list a few other parts of the UK similarly). I made my decision as a teenager to get the hell out of there, and I have no regrets. Score 1 to Boris.

Now, Boris also got criticised for making remarks about that wonderful pillar of the establishment, Jamie Oliver. So much so, that the Tories were forced into allocating time at their conference to introduce an emergency motion praising Mr Oliver. Whether you support Jamie's school dinners campaign or not (is there ANYONE who is against in an argument that goes something like "would you like good, wholesome school dinners, or crap?"), one can't help thinking that Mr Oliver's own self-publicity had just a little to do with the whole scheme. The people who should be praised are those who have fought unsung for such changes since times when Jamie Oliver was himself still at school. But who are, of course, ignored by the very media who will only give the airtime to a celebrity.

Politics needs Boris Johnson like it needs Tony Benn, Tam Dalyell, and, dare I say it, Anne Widdecomble to name a few. Heh, maybe even that dour Jack Straw could make it into that group if he continues to say what needs to be said.

And, I'll take the Tories more seriously when they don't resort to spin to protect the reputation of a celebrity who is quite capable of looking after himself.

Boris, I'm not going to agree with you on many things, but on the prat vote, Jamie Oliver wins over you anytime. And, you may be eccentric, but not because of these things. Keep speaking out!

Too Quiet

2006-10-05T18:42:00.000+01:00

Sorry it's been a bit quiet here. I lost the will to live a bit after Charles' last comments! (only joking - just the will to blog!). But I've been working on a Hobsblog vs Guardian riposte, and it will be here real soon. In the meantime, I've posted some views on mp3 phones - following a (dire) review of an LG model. Let me know what you think on these. Do you love your music phone? Has it replaced an iPod or similar device? How well does all the software work in terms of keeping it in sync? How well does it fit into other aspects of your life - gym usage, car usage, home usage, etc? And, have you bought music with it? If so, how was that experience?

A couple of other brief stories that have got my attention recently will also be posted shortly!

How not to make an mp3 phone...

2006-10-05T18:26:00.000+01:00

Excellent review/case study by Joel Spolsky on his experience with an LG phone from Sprint (via Daring Fireball link).

I'm not going to say that ALL mp3 phones are as bad as this - I know they're not. But when faced with simple stats like "100million phones sold with music players built in", it's important to remember that the vast majority of them have not been bought with that as the major feature, and also that it is highly doubtful that the vast majority of such phones are regularly being used for music (or other multimedia).

Joel highlights some of the fundamental problems here - the manufacturer and the network operator with misaligned business objectives being key. While the networks are struggling to find revenues to pay off their foolish investments in 3G, others are going to come from behind and deliver a compelling mobile strategy that makes sense. The networks don't get the internet, and nor do they get media. While their thinking is focused on how to use and ringfence that network to maximise revenues, others can come along with a clean slate and deliver a mobile strategy that is integrated, affordable and genuinely compelling.

What could a company without the ties of a network operator do differently?

1. Supply a multi-network phone that worked and that didn't try to force you into using an expensive data network all the time. By this I mean a phone that automatically picked up Wi-Fi (WiMAX? and other) networks first for its default connection.
2. Provided VoIP client and IM on the phone - eg through a Skype partnership and/or the Gizmo (SIP) approach. Make it work as cheaply as possible (eg using wifi when it can), giving you the option to switch manually or automatically into higher cost networks depending on availability.
3. Easily let you manage your data connections between free and paid.
4. Supply content to the phone as part of an overall strategy of supplying content to ALL your devices.
5. Provided a number of additional services - free/ad-supported/paid that genuinely added value to the device and encouraged use - both on the device itself and on your other devices.
6. Support access to your normal email service in a synchronised way and possibly access to your data via a virtual hard disk (or vpn to a server).

Who could do all of this? Well, Nokia can today. But something seems to be stopping Nokia from completing the picture. My guess is that it is the networks themselves, who, after all, are Nokia's customers in reality (not you and me). While most of the pieces are there on current high end Nokia phones, and the reality is much better than Joel's review, things are still a bit all over the place. My phone for instance always establishes an orange data connection after being switched on (which is often the case because it switches off frequently of its own accord!) without giving me a chance to stop it. Fortunately, I don't have any apps running that take the data, but it is annoying to find a data connection active. Also, I can't turn wi-fi off and save battery. If there's a wifi network I've setup, the phone detects it when within range. Experiences with the music player and media player leave a lot to be desired.

I'm sure Sony Ericsson is up to the task too, but has the same problems as Nokia. Motorola, while making the best looking phones at this time, doesn't seem to understand UI, so I'm not sure about them.

I know which company you think I'm going to suggest, but actually you're wrong! Microsoft is the company that had most to offer in this area and had the capability to deliver it. It is far less tied in to the network operators than Nokia and the other manufacturers, it had much of the technology in place with Windows Mobile, and with all it's back end infrastructure - MSN, WindowsLive etc, probably could have delivered some compelling services (finally finding a way to monetise MSN better). And Microsoft also has/had the resources to throw money at this area. It could probably have found good partners in the network operators that are least successful, and/or piggy-backed on a good virtual network operator. In the UK for instance, could a Microsoft-BT partnership or a Microsoft-Virgin partnership not delivered a compelling mobile service? It probably wouldn't have faced huge regulatory hurdles because there is lots of competition already and a dynamic space.

Instead, Microsoft has focused on XBox, and, now on trying to hurt the iPod. It may well have defeated Sony in the games market - time will tell. But if so, I think that's more down to Sony's rash of disastrous mistakes and poor execution. By the time they land significant punches on the iPod, I think the world will have moved on.
Sure, they will no doubt be working on a Zune phone etc. and you might make the (fair) argument that they've still not worked out how to be a hardware company, but I really think this is a space they could have owned or at least muscled into a strong position next to Nokia and the like.

So that brings me to the company you first thought I was going to say! Of the other capable companies out there, only Apple has the design skills to bring all this together. But Apple doesn't have at least two things that Microsoft has. It doesn't have a phone OS. Symbian and Windows Mobile have both cost huge amounts to develop, and this is not a trivial problem to overcome. Perhaps Apple has something up their sleeves, or perhaps it will do a deal with Symbian or somebody (though that is quite un-Apple-esque).

Neither does Apple have a great services strategy. Sure, it can deliver media content and that is one of its compelling angles in this space. But in services it is WAY behind others. .Mac I find useful, but it is certainly not free and not for everyone. And, it doesn't offer many of the things that people like Yahoo, Microsoft and, of course, Google bring.

I touched on this when talking about Eric Schmidt joining Apple's board, but it is increasingly clear to me that Apple's next push will be into the mobile space and that it will do this with Google's help. Google has a lot to gain by getting searches done on mobile devices and increasingly using its location services. To say nothing of GMail, Blogger.com, GoogleTalk, Picassa, GoogleGroups, Calendar etc. It must be frustrated that such services are not being used by mobile users more frequently. Only Google has the clout to provide many of these data services for free or at least at low-cost. It might even be able to make a dent in handset costs too - given that most people pay nothing or close to nothing for their handsets due to subsidies, this is another obstacle Apple and Google will have to overcome.

If I was a network operator, I'd be courting these guys very closely, no matter how successful I currently was. But for turnaround situations (eg Softbank in Japan who took over Vodafone's failing service) or virtual network operators (Virgin, BT), it is a no-brainer.

I used to think that Apple had no chance in this space and wouldn't try. But how things have opened up through greed and incompetence. And, Microsoft, who could have seized this easily, will as usual be playing catch up from behind by throwing money at it until their dominance is established.

Tags: Apple, Microsoft, LG, Nokia, Sony Ericsson

(Old) Football News...

2006-09-19T13:15:00.000+01:00

I've been a bit late in reporting on this - general tardiness combined with the hope that last Saturday things were going to get even better. But a 2-2 draw with Wigan ruined that hope and the brief top of the table stint from the previous weekend was not repeated.

Nevertheless, I would just like to trumpet the performance of Everton in the first few games of this season and in particular, to celebrate the 3-0 defeat of arch-rivals Liverpool - the best scoreline seen since 1964 (which pre-dates my memory, if not support). Well done David Moyes and team!

If only the glory days of the late sixties and the mid-eighties could be recaptured!

Tags: Everton FC

Guardian, Apple, iTV and Ignorance

2006-09-19T11:15:00.000+01:00

Charles referring to my article on the new Apple announcements (and specifically about my criticism of the Guardian) posted in the comments to that article the following which I'm reprinting so it doesn't get lost:

You don't specify what, though, which is quite a clever way of disagreeing without having to do the difficult stuff, like being specific. Bobbie Johnson and Jack Schofield have also posted followup posts. Perhaps you'll find criticisms in those too.

The key point though is this. You can buy a DVD player for £30. You can join a DVD rental scheme, or just go down to your local library. With those you can watch the films as many times as you like (which is generally going to be once) or just buy the DVD, in which case you have a physical object that you can rip to your HD and watch on your PC etc.

And you'll have a wider choice. And lots of people also have VOD through Sky (which is NVOD) or NTL (which really is VOD). No waiting for the download to happen and hoping your broadband line doesn't crap out (mine runs now at 128K and falls over a couple of times a night).

This all leaves aside the iPods, which obviously are going to sell big. It's the other things - the movies and the "iTV" - which seem like squibs. Unless the movies get a lot cheaper, there's no point bothering. Unless the iTV has a lot more capability, there are other things which do the job just as well or better already, and have been for years.

This article is VERY long and represents a detailed piece of research and writing that I've conducted in order to answer Charles' criticisms.

First of all, I would acknowledge (and did acknowledge in the article) that it was a QUICK reaction to that day's news and I apologise for not posting the usual links that I do. At the time, the only Guardian commentary was from Victor Keegan to my knowledge which was featured heavily on the Guardian site. There was no intention for it to be "a clever way of disagreeing without having to do the difficult stuff, like being specific." But now as you ask....

(Before I launch into this, I should point out that my research has been hampered by the inability of me to browse parts of the Guardian weblog using either Safari or Firefox; at the time I tried - selecting the category Apple, Safari would freeze completely and had to be force-quitted; the behaviour was repeated 3 times before I moved on to Firefox; with this, cpu use went to 100%, and the display was quite garbled; after numerous attempts, I was able to copy and paste Charles' post so I could look at it in more detail and/or get to the permalinks. I've never had this experience with Safari before or Firefox. Is this another subtle anti-Apple ploy by the Guardian or just incompetence in adhering to web standards?)

Let's take all the articles one correspondent at a time and expose the ignorance:

First off, Victor Keegan, whose remarks were the only ones I'd seen at the time of my first article. I know Victor's not anti-Apple per se - I think he was the only journalist I know who praised the Motorola iTunes phone which even Steve Jobs is rumoured to believe was a POS. But...."Every Empire Crumbles" tagline "Apple is losing its hip and unpredictable edge as it risks being left behind by the very technology it helped to proliferate"?

Just what is the basis for this? It seems like a follow-on to the previous Sunday's Observer full one pager in the MAIN paper saying that the iPod was no longer cool. You know, Guardian/Observer Group, if you write it enough, you will believe it.

But what is Victor's evidence of the decline of the empire? It's not Apple's stock price obviously, or their recent financial performance (the last quarter of which had revenues up 24% over last year and 117% over 2 years ago). Neither of which are mentioned. It's not Apple's market share of music players, which is not mentioned. Instead, Victor uses 2 quarters of consecutive sales drops on iPods and refers to the number of mobile phones sold which have music playing capabilities. I wonder if it had anything to do with the fact that Christmas comes but once a year, and that last year, new nanos AND 5G iPods had been introduced in that quarter causing a truly huge leap in iPod sales resulting in a baseline from which consecutive drops were inevitable. If Apple had not expected this, it would be sitting on huge inventory which it would now be writing off. Instead iPod sales in the last quarter were 32% ahead of the same quarter in the previous year. Hardly an empire crumbling.

But what about Victor's point on mobile phones with media player capabilities? Just because a mobile phone has a built-in media player, does not mean its being used in that way. If mobile phones had crept up and taken over the iPod mantle, would we not be seeing a massive drop in iTunes share of music downloads? I know many people with mp3-capable mobile phones, and the vast majority do NOT use the music player capabilities. Of course, that may change, and Apple knows that and has admitted that. It has a huge chasm to cross, but since the mobile phone manufacturers and the operators have collectively failed to find a business model that works for both of them, there is still a gap for someone to come along who does it right.

To Victor: If this holiday season's iPod sales fall significantly below last year's, then maybe you're on to something. If the iTunes music store nosedives in its sales, then maybe you're on to something. If some other music players get into 2 of the top 5 best sellers on Amazon UK (let alone Amazon US), then maybe you're on to something. But at this time, your story is without foundation.

Let's move on. I wouldn't normally bother with Jack Schofield as we all know he hasn't a clue and writes the most ridiculous anti-Apple comments. But let's just focus on some of the stupid things he says (and believes) about Apple's announcements and what's out there from the company behind the market-leading, virus-ridden OS.

First off, Jack comments on Zune - as pre-announced as the iTV product, but with less detail. We don't know the price and we don't even know whether it works in the Plays-for-(un)sure universe, though the answer to the latter appears to be an unbelievable "NO". There is not a single criticism of Zune in Jack's piece, nor even some critical questioning. What about battery life? What about price - originally the 30GB was rumoured at $399, then matching the 30GB iPod at $299. But then Steve went and dropped the price of both 5G iPods (something no Guardian commentator noted in any article I saw) so, it will now have to be $249 surely? No questioning of the music sharing feature which seems (from what I read) to be very limited - even assuming you run into another Zune-carrier. No questioning of Plays-for-Sure. Jack, can you not think of ANY faults with this device or Microsoft's strategy?

Then Jack talks about iTV in "How much is a Media Center PC, Bobbie". Jack makes numerous points to show how far Apple is behind. He quotes media centre PC's being available for $399, then goes on to say that the iTV is not a media centre PC. So why mention the comparison, Jack? Then he says that "Media Center capability is built into Windows Vista, so most standard PCs next year will be Media Centers too." Yes, indeed, Jack, key words "next year". And, actually it is not buit into Windows Vista, it is built into the more expensive versions of Windows Vista. If you buy a machine today (assuming it can really handle full-blown Vista next year), then expect to pay another $159 just for the software - that's half the price of an iTV before any hardware is considered. And, we're mixing the future with today, yet again. How many media centre PCs are even four times the size of the iTV? How many are quiet? How many can sit in your living room and look the part?

Jack then talks about the Linksys Media Centre extender, a device which costs a similar amount to Apple's proposed list price for iTV at $313 according to my searches. Jack calls it "similar". Well, perhaps it's closer in looks to the iTV than any of the media center PC's he talks about. But, the Linksys doesn't do HD, nor does it do H.264. Both of these are very demanding applications requiring state-of-the-art chips. Neither does the Linksys have a HD port - either DVI or HDMI. The iTV has an HDMI port meaning it can provide a digital signal to a digital TV. The Linksys uses 802.11g standard. It is highly likely that the iTV will use the new 802.11n standard, and indeed a key reason why the product is not released yet, is because that standard is still not ratified, and Apple would be opening itself up for major problems if it shipped a pre-N consumer device which couldn't be made compatible with the final n standard. Jack, as always, fails to appreciate these differences. They are not mere subtleties, they are fundamental differences affecting price, delivery date, and overall user experience. Failure to read a spec sheet and/or to understand should disqualify you from writing about technology in an opinionated way.

Then, he notes the XBox360 as a media centre extender. A device significantly bigger than the iTV, with a large external power brick and reportedly high heat output (from both brick and device). Is this the device you want next to your plasma TV? Will you leave it on all the time? What about the noise from the fans? Hardly audiophile is it? Only the basic XBox360 is at an equivalent price to the iTV. And it's at that price because Microsoft loses money on everyone it sells. Sure, you could be clever and pay that and never buy a game - ha, ha, Microsoft. But if you want a media centre extender, get one that is designed for the job - not doubles up as one.

Then Jack comes up with this amazing statement

"But by the time iTV gets going, millions of homes could already have PCs running Vista beaming movies to Xbox 360 consoles attached to TV sets, synchronising with portable media players (Archos, Creative etc), PDAs and Windows Mobile phones, among other things. Maybe even the odd Tablet PC!"

What? VIsta isn't shipping either, Jack. Same sort of timeframe as iTV for home users. And if Apple is late to the party, why is not everyone doing what you suggest with XP today? The fact is they're not, and Vista by itself is not going to solve that. And, if Microsoft thought it had it nailed, it wouldn't be converting itself to Microhard and creating its own incompatible music players, and potentially its own Microsoft phone.

Jack finishes with this final dig at Steve and Apple

"The one thing you can bet on is that most of these users won't be paying Steve Jobs-style prices to download movies."

What (again)? As far as I know, Apple's prices for online movies are the lowest there are. The reason they aren't lower has been well-publicised. Does Jack think that a key reason the other movie studios have not signed on for the Apple vision is because Apple priced them too HIGH? If you don't like the price, then don't buy. But, Jack completely misses or avoids the point that iTV does not force you to use the Apple movie store any more than Microsoft's MediaCenter technology forces you to use Amazon (rip a DVD, play a recorded TV show off Elgato EyeTV etc). Movie stores all have DRM, and all provide limits. Apple has been careful to come up with limits that seem at least reasonable for the typical family home situation.

Finally, let's move on to Charles himself. I like Charles, really I do. And he visits here regularly to give his comments. He's a bright guy. But he doesn't get video. Plenty of people have commented on the Guardian blog about his factual errors in this piece. But let's just cover this paragraph:

"Movies? In 640 by 480, it's a giant leap forward to 1985, and VGA, isn't it? Jobs called it "near DVD quality at 640x480 resolution". Yes, but the average TV screen roughly equates to 1024 x 768. Anything less isn't "near" DVD. It's a quarter the size. The rights will be the same as the TV shows - so no burning to disc. It's hardly terrific for a backup strategy. We think that at those prices, the likes of Netflix - and indeed Amazon - can sleep easy. When the physical product is cheaper than the virtual one, it's only a contest where people won't travel. And even then, the file-sharing networks haven't gone away."

Where to start, really. The average TV screen is certainly not 1024 x 768, though this may be the average computer monitor. The average TV screen has a resolution of something less than 576 lines in this country and 480 lines in the US. Until very recently, most top-end plasma screens sold in this country from even good names like Panasonic were 852 x 480. Oh, 480, isn't that a coincidence? Of course not, it's what NTSC is built upon. So, even top end TV's have not supported the 576 lines of real resolution offered by PAL. Resolution of 640 x 480 for videos is in theory as good as US DVD's. We can get into esoteric arguments about PAL vs NTSC (number of lines, frame rates) etc, but it doesn't belong here and has little to do with Apple's movie store. In the US, it would be relatively easy for Apple to deliver near-DVD quality with a 640 by 480 video, because the resolutions are very similar indeed. In fact, it could probably exceed DVD quality if it was able to re-master from the original using better H.264 compression than the older and less efficient MPEG2 compression used on DVDs. Most likely however, much of the material available on the store could come from DVD's converted. In which case, there would clearly be some loss going from a lossy scheme like MPEG2 to another lossy scheme like H.264. From the demos we saw on a large screen, I don't think quality will be an issue. In reality, there is massive variation between the quality of DVDs available in both NTSC and PAL (I watched a truly badly encoded Japanese movie last night on DVD). I see no reason why the choices Apple has made and with appropriate quality control should not lead to a quality output to both computer screen or to TV monitor that most people would find indistinguishable from the equivalent DVD.

In Europe (once we get such videos) maybe things are not so simple, and it will be interesting to see whether the European stores will offer different resolutions. But 640 by 480 on 30 frames a second with a progressive output and a decent quality master to start with, should again be able to provide excellent quality output to most computer monitors and TV sets (even here). To improve from this would really require a jump to High Definition. Is this what Charles wanted? But no one else offers HD movies digitally today. And, as Charles alluded to with his broadband comments, many people would find their download speeds the obstacle for true HD delivery, even if their computer could handle it, and their tv screen display it (true HD is at least 7-8 times the data size of Standard Definition TV). The point you have missed Charles, is that 640 by 480 is NOT "quarter the size", and you have given people a very bad impression because of this serious factual error. Apple's movie resolution choices are as good as any other digital delivery service available today, and their choice of H.264 probably will lead to it being better than any of them and/or with a lower file size. Furthermore, it requires just ONE download to serve computer, tv, AND iPod. Contrast with the Amazon Unboxed store which requires two files to be downloaded, stored and managed. (Most other stores to my knowledge don't even support portable devices at all) Is it for everyone? I'm sure not. I'm a rental user, and generally do not own videos. But I can see times when I would buy it this way (DVDs of concerts for instance). And, for people with kids, having a digital version may be a lot safer than a physical one. The movies can be copied to DVD, and can be copied to other hard disks. So, there IS a backup strategy - one that is arguably better than a single flimsy disk). It's not one where you can create a playable DVD directly. Whose fault is that? If you don't like the rights and you don't like the price, the way to change it is not to boycott online sales, it's to boycott ALL movie sales - physical and digital - until the studios wake up to give you products and rights on those products that are more reasonable. What Charles also doesn't mention is that with a simple cable it will be possible to watch the movies at 640 by 480 on a TV straight from the iPod (and in fact last year's 5G models too with a software upgrade). Imagine the convenience of carrying an iPod on holiday and connecting into a hotel TV? There's a convenience and simplicity about all this that IS absent from a physical product, and from other stores. Apple has made some good choices, despite the limits put on it by those studios (and by companies like Walmart who are rumoured to have threatened the studios). Another point Charles made (in his comments to my blog) is to infer that videos cannot be played until they have been downloaded. But from my interpretation of the keynote, they are available within a minute of downloading starting. That is pretty much VOD. Sure, if you've got an unreliable broadband, you may want to wait till there's a decent buffer. But I think again, Charles, you've erred in your criticism, and your poor broadband is another story altogether.

Now, let's come on to iTV. What Charles seemed to gloss over is that iTV CAN do HD as far as I am aware. So, we are not talking a technology limitation here - we are talking about the practical implementation of the movie store to meet the needs of the studios, and matching that to the practical limitations of the average person's broadband line (and also not forgetting pricing!). Photos, HD movies from other sources (including likely Blu-ray players next year) should all be capable of being displayed at the maximum resolution of the TV connected to the iTV. I can assure Charles that my projector at 1280 x 720 does a great job of displaying both DVD's from a Mac as well as my photos using a DVI (digital cable). So, apart from the errors in the statements, there is also a considerable misunderstanding of the issues involved and the choices made by Apple - which on the whole seem to be good (and why I praised it). Also widely unnoticed is the promise that iTV is multi-platform - a PC AND a Mac Media Centre Extender. Who else provides one of them today?

You can all look on and say this is all dull and me-too, but it absolutely is NOT. Apple has bided their time and waited for technology to come together to provide the key ingredients to build a quality integrated video delivery system. Those bits of technology include H.264 (don't underestimate this), appropriate and affordable H.264 decoders and encoders (faster Macs/PCs; lower cost system-on-a-chip for iTV and iPod), decent, ubiquitous broadband, and (almost certainly) 802.11n. Without ALL of these pieces, any solution WOULD be a compromise. With these pieces and Apple's legendary integration skills, it is possible to come close to high quality, reliable handling of music, movies, tv programmes and photos on both portable and home devices. And it will be possible to move into HD as that becomes established. I know of no other technology that can do that today. The closest will be the XBox360 (but it's hot and quite large - certainly not suitable for many living rooms), and perhaps the PlayStation3 if/when its available here (but with many of the same weaknesses of the XBox360). Both would require Vista (to accomplish what the iTV does), and both will be Windows only, and also come with their own proprietary DRM's. I'm not saying Apple is light years ahead - in some ways they've come from behind. But they are delivering a solid, affordable, attractive and practical solution that is multi-platform and extendible for the future. Apple is taking on the home network - that is a big commitment for the company when the average person knows nothing about networking. And just as Airport made it easy for the masses to share broadband wirelessly, then airport express for music, iTV and the FrontRow strategy will make it easy for everyone too.

Is it ALL rosy? No. Are there questions that COULD have been asked by an intrepid reporter? Yes. Here's what I'd like to know:
Movie Store:
1. Are movies re-mastered from the original film, or are they taken from DVD?
2. Do we get DVD Extras?
3. For Europe, will we get PAL-style movies? If so, will they play on iPods? Or is this pushing us all towards an NTSC-led world?
4. What will be the European pricing?
5. When are we going to get UK TV shows (even ones offered on iTunes in the US such as CSI, Jon Stewart Daily Show).

iTV:
1. Component and HDMI output is supported. But what about composite signals, S-Video or (Europe) SCART? Without these, many TV sets will not be capable of being supported.
2. Will it also work as a wireless base station (ie is it REALLY the Video version of the Airport Express for 802.11n)?
3. How will PC's work with it - they don't have Front Row, so is it limited here to iTunes-managed content only?
4. Will it be able to route video signals to a TV and separate the audio to a surround sound system in all cases or will we need cables back out from the TV?
5. Can I plug my iPod into the USB port of the iTV and use it to play video, or must I connect the iPod to a TV separately?
6. What other uses has the USB port (printer output, iPod sync to a remote PC/Mac, TV tuner input?)
7. Will 3rd parties be able to send content to an iTV?

I don't expect the first version to do all these things, but if the device can do some of them, then it will increase its utility value to most people.

And criticisms? Yes, I have those too. I think those who've bought TV shows in the past should be able to download the higher resolution ones now available. Kicking early adopters in the teeth is not a good business strategy. While I love the new iPod Shuffle, I think it's a mistake to require a dock to connect it (I use my current one as a USB disk frequently, and its utility would be reduced if I had to have the dock with me). Finally, use of Dolby Surround is disappointing when compared with DTS and Dolby 5.1 which are on most DVD's. (This is mostly a technology limitation within current video/audio compression systems, but Apple will have to work with MPEG and others to improve this situation).

So, that's my rather long-winded response to the articles that were written. I should point out in fairness that Bobby Johnson of all the journalists seemed to get most of the points. It's taken me a long time to go through this, and, yes, I could probably write even more (heaven help you!).

If you're going to write about technology, do your research first. A good read of projectorcentral.com and/or the AVSForums is a great way to learn about video - PAL, NTSC, SD,ED and HDTV, interlacing, progressive scans, HDMI, DVI, Component etc. Then I'd advise reading the spec sheets of products you compare. If one product has something that another doesn't, then why is that, and who will it affect?
And, while business and economics is perhaps only tangential to the stories, understand that it has a huge effect on what is being offered and why. Educate your readers on who they should be aiming their anger (eg at movie prices, or digital rights).

Yes, I know I love most things Apple does. Yes, I want them to succeed (and not just as a small shareholder). At some point, Apple may well need taking down a peg or two. But if we, as consumers, wish to see a credible contender to the Windows world in which WMP was (pre iPod/iTunes) about to become Microsoft's next monopoly product together with a single Microsoft-owned DRM, we need to welcome competition. Apple has a long way to go still - even with its iPod marketshare - before it can be a long-term credible contender. Perhaps Sony once could have been. But right now, it's a two horse race (unless you believe that Linux is going to come up with the goods), and Apple is still the big underfunded underdog against a cash-rich Redmond. We need to welcome advances that make it easier for us to use our paid-for and self-generated media in our homes whoever provides the technology. Criticism is just - but only if its founded on a solid understanding. Hopefully, I've pointed out here that there has been a woeful lack of understanding behind the Guardian/Observer's recent spate of criticisms.

Tags: Apple, iPod, iTV, iTunes Movie Store, Guardian

Apple, Movies, iPods etc

2006-09-12T20:07:00.000+01:00

Just a quick commentary on the Showtime announcement today (excuse any typos and omissions and general stupid comment).

Just yesterday, my friend Tim emailed me for my thoughts pre-event. I wrote back with the following:

1. Will it work on my iPod?
2. Will it work with my PC?
3. Will it only work on a Mac (and a new Mac at that)? If it's limited to Macs I think that will of course limit the appeal. But it's also a potential reason to switch if used cleverly.
4. What resolution will it be? iPod video is not enough for full length movie at $10-15. It's got to be 480p or the videophiles will slam it.
5. What different TV's will be supported? Top of the line plasma/lcd, or bog standard CRT in kids room? It's gotta be both surely?
6. Will it do Dolby 5.1 etc if available? Again, videophiles will turn away.
7. If there is wireless distribution, real world performance of wireless is typically fraught with problems due to building design and configuration, interfering networks and even microwaves.
8. Can I burn it to a DVD? And if so, can I play back from that? (If DVD's are 1-2GB, that's only 20-30 before you've filled up most people's laptop hard drive).
9. The movie studios are dinosaurs clinging on to the olde worlde as long as they can (with pressure from Walmart etc). So, hitting the optimum price (eg 99p music) will be hard to do.
10. Oh, I almost forgot, it's got to include DVD Extras as well. Don't short-change us of material.

I think the answer is a pretty affirmative yes to just about all of these questions - including the pre-announced iTV device. Question 8 looks like a "no" but then, as with TV shows, you can back up that way. And with iTV, there is distribution to other TVs. Question 10 is up in the air at this time.

Compared to the train-wreck that is Amazon unboxed (see various non-Apple sites for that), this is a huge announcement which shows they understand what they need to do. Even the $12.99 pre-order price is smart and was not predicted. The other movie studios will be on this within months, as they were with TV.

But with the iPod announcements, Apple has again reimposed its lead. The silly commentary given in recent weeks (when it was already widely reported that there would be new iPods) to other announcements culminating in the ludicrous Observer full page article on iPod "losing its cool" is put in its place. Apple is shipping today higher capacity iPod nanos, that also deal with key objections on battery life and scratching. The Sandisk players trumpeted 2 weeks ago with higher capacity are still not shipping (to my knowledge). The new Shuffle is cute. And the changes to the iPod video are important - especially in terms of pricing. Microsoft now has to find a way to shave another $50 off its Zune player just to keep up. Playback of 640 by 480 videos is another leap forward including H.264 compression. No other media player can do that - as witnessed by Amazon's need to increase download time with a second lower-res file for portable players. Subtle other changes - including input of letters for search presages a whole new range of iPod accessories. And don't forget the iPods are still the smallest devices in each category.

Sure iTV isn't here today, and nor is the iPhone. But with the announcements, Apple has demonstrated a complete end-to-end solution including the home office, the living room, the car and your pocket. No one else has anything like that integration today, nor on the horizon.

Press reaction will be interesting, and I've already seen Guardian commentary that the announcements were underwhelming. I just cannot agree with that at all (as usual) and some of their criticisms seem very offbase.

While I'm not interested in buying movies myself - preferring my DVD rental service for that - I think they've gone about it superbly, and the products on offer allow anyone interested in video - from home movies to video podcasts, to benefit, right down to the TV in the kids room.

My one complaint is the complete failure to deal with the market outside the US. We still don't have TV shows. I think I know where the blame lies, but no doubt many will chastise Apple for that, while at the same time criticising the Apple lock-in (the alternative of course being a far more anti-consumer and poorly integrated Microsoft lock-in).

Update: Here's a link to JupiterResearch Analyst Michael Gartenberg with what he has to say. Spot on Michael.

Great stuff!

Tags: Apple, iPod, iTunes, iTV

Hewlett Packard Spying Scandal Reporting

2006-09-09T08:27:00.000+01:00

Just a quick word on the HP spying scandal (tons of links around on this).

I find the episode quite amazing - and really a very bad commentary on HP, a company I have always admired. Identity theft, which was essentially used here, is a serious crime. Patricia Dunn should resign immediately. However, you're not interested in my opinion on this.

Instead I wanted to remark particularly on the press treatment of this article, as this is a topic near and dear to my heart as you frequent readers may know!

The issue has gained huge notoriety in the US, perhaps unsurprisingly, and most articles are indeed highly critical. I would note however a bit too much focus on the fact that certain journalists phone records were tapped. Let's face it, it's bad whoever you are (and a few journalists themselves are not above similarly illegal activities - hands up News of the World).

Whereas in the US the article has been widely reported, in the UK, it's been consigned to the business pages as far as I can see. Fair enough? Perhaps. But I can't help feeling that if this story had been about another smaller company a few miles further south, and a certain Mr Jobs had been behind this, it would have been all over the main news pages, and probably even the Daily Hate (where the HP incident has not even been mentioned at all).

Tags: HP, Hewlett Packard, Spying, Apple

Apple and Google?

2006-09-07T17:46:00.000+01:00

The news that Google's CEO Eric Schmidt (also a former Novell and Sun Microsystems Executive) is to join Apple's board has created a bit of a stir this week. On the one hand it is tempting to dismiss it as a bit of a Silicon Valley lovefest, or a bit of mischief-making on both sides aimed at Redmond.

But is there more to it than that?

Back in January this year, I posted about 3 challenges for Apple, the first of which I wrote about was Partnerships. I criticised Apple (yes, really!) for it's poor record on partnerships - citing examples with both HP and Motorola as attempts which had underdelivered and not stood the test of time. I specifically suggested 3 partners Apple could consider getting into bed with - Nokia on the mobile side, Amazon for logistics to merge the physical and virtual (eg listen to a track of iTunes and buy the physical CD), and Yahoo on the services side. When discussing Yahoo, I also said "maybe Google". At the time, I felt Yahoo was in more need of friends, and that Google, being on a roll, perhaps didn't feel it needed anybody.

There were many elements to a tie-in with Yahoo (or Google) that I liked then. One suggestion was a .mac lite service - an ad-supported service that had some of the features of .mac but could be free. I also suggested Flickr integration with iPhoto, and tie-ins on music search and sampling. Essentially Yahoo becoming the provider of free, ad-supported services for both Mac and iPod users.

But an Apple-Yahoo partnership wouldn't threaten Microsoft, and it wouldn't have worried Google, though it might have pushed Google away from proactively supporting the Mac platform. Instead of course, Microsoft themselves have partnered with Yahoo, and upped the ante there.

An Apple-Google alliance - even a loose one - has the potential to radically alter the landscape if we look into the post-PC future. In this world of services and data anytime, anywhere, there's lots of opportunity for both companies. Whether it's access to your (reliably-stored) photo library or music collection anywhere you want on any device you want, or getting a map/guide to whatever part of town you're in (or museum/gallery, etc). Apple wants to be the key player in providing the physical devices, and perhaps some premium services, and Google will store it for you, let you access it wherever you are (and on any gadget) and put it in context for you (ie ontop of a map of where you currently are).

Pressure from Google on the services side weakens Microsoft, and continued Apple success with the Mac and the iPod squeezes from the other side. I've argued before that Apple and Microsoft don't really compete at this time - that Apple has embraced Microsoft essentially with Office for Mac, with Bootcamp and with the use of Intel so that users don't have to choose Apple vs Microsoft, they choose Apple vs Dell for instance. And, from Apple's perspective, I think that's where the battleground still is, though Steve Jobs almost certainly harbours greater ambitions than that. But, with the Zune strategy unfolding, it is clear that Microsoft isn't ignoring Apple's rise, and is jealous enough of their success to justify upsetting current partners in going it alone. With Microsoft's recent announcement that they are discontinuing Virtual PC (what a surprise, there), and not carrying support for Visual Basic into the native version of Office for Mac, there's more than a hint of upset, even if there are justifiable technical reasons for it.

Apple's strategy with Microsoft has been defensive of course - make sure a Microsoft product is not a barrier to using a Mac or an iPod. That's done with the OS, with iTunes and much of Office for Mac is secure for a few more years. But Apple is vulnerable to Microsoft discontinuing Office for Mac ultimately. While it needs alternative applications (Keynote is a great Powerpoint replacement, Pages, a not-so-substitutable Word replacement; and Excel is er, unique), for the masses, Apple is probably better helped by the application as a service (though a decent Open Office native product would also help). Nobody has this in their sights better than Google, and it is the threat to the MS Office monopoly from Google that I think most worries Microsoft.

The opening up of the MS Office file formats will only help this, and it is no surprise MS avoided this for so long (why didn't the EU force that on them all that time ago?). It is in both Google's and Apple's interests that the MS Office monopoly is ended, and working together, they could help hasten that.

So, Apple will be helped if Google is successful with its application strategy, and perhaps we can look for closer tie-ins between the Apple iApps and Google's products.

But I think there are some more speculative opportunities building upon Google's strong services and Apple's iPod mobile device. For some time there was speculation about Google entering into the music market, and of course, there is also the Google video offering. But I wonder if this is an area Google will not focus on, but instead beef up its value in helping people find music and videos etc. in a tie-in with Apple? But even this pales into insignificance next to where some real excitement could be.

For sometime now (having jumped on the GPS bandwagon and also observed the iPod + Nike products) I've been deliberating about how Apple could bring location services onto the iPod - as the iPod matures into a complete mobile platform. While the mobile phone industry has seemed likely to provide solutions here, they seem expensive and unintegrated and with users forced into extra addons, software that may or may not work, and expensive 3G data connections.

Let me put it another way. Anyone visiting here ever use an Apple Newton? Irrespective of your views, one of the best applications out there was TimeOut's London guide with maps, basic navigation, restaurants, attractions etc. It was actually very nicely done for the most part but with two fundamental problems. First, the data was static - it was out-of-date the moment you bought the card on which it came (I used it recently and had to laugh at the phone numbers using a format 3 BritishTelecom changes ago!). The second problem is that it didn't know where you were. Now fast forward to an iPod with a GPS add-on connecting to the iPod via bluetooth or wi-fi (similar to the Nike solution). Add in Google maps for showing you were you are, and the Google mapping services for finding locations and you've got a live TimeOut for London - and indeed any other place in the world. Lots of opportunity for other companies to supply content for such a service (eg Lonely Planet/Rough Guide; TimeOut for event listings) perhaps via a podcast like feature (note such guides already exist for the video iPod). Companies could also provide downloadable files for a user to show their own points of interest on the maps (eg all Starbucks in Manchester). Loads of advertising revenue for Google! If anyone can make this stuff simple to use, it would be Apple, built around data provided by Google.

Apple and Google could sow this market up before Nokia/Motorola/Microsoft and the phone companies themselves have even woken up to why they've failed so far. Sure there are weaknesses with this solution (which an iPod phone could go some way to fix). But if I was visiting another Town or City or just living in a big one, this is a solution that would make me carry my iPod with me everytime, everywhere - probably attached to the handlebars of my bike! I'd have the equivalent of Time Out, an A-Z book, Rough Guide all in one place (with my music too). Wouldn't this be cool?

I've been thinking there will be more on mapping and location features in Mac OS X 10.5 (aka Leopard) - perhaps one of the top secret features? I was thinking along the lines of interfacing this with iPods. The weakness though with this argument is it would mean iPod users on Windows would be second-class citizens - something Apple has been careful to avoid. Working with Google on this is a classic win-win for both companies. While Google doesn't want to marginalise itself by being seen as an Apple-flavoured solution, it would surely jump at the opportunity to be a significant part of the iPod universe, and much of it could be done without formal relationships as such a tie-in is already consistent with both companies directions.

Obviously this is all wild speculation. What do you think? Is there more to the Google/Apple story? Would you like this sort of information on your iPod?

Tags: Apple, Google, Eric Schmidt, iPod, Leopard

Obesity - How the Government Must Lead

2006-08-31T07:46:00.000+01:00

Lot's of stuff on obesity lately, including this one from the BBC.

I'm always amazed how many people think that it's the government's problem first and foremost, and want all sorts of actions that deprive/tax/annoy people who are not obese. Is this really the sort of state we want? The government cannot regulate away obesity, and in fact its efforts, however well-intentioned, will just increase it. When the state's actions are seen as an alternative to personal responsibility, is it any wonder people get lazy?

Anyway, here's my suggestion on how the government could lead on this one:

Fire that fat, and useless John Prescott!

That would send a message.

Fascinating Debate on Overseas Aid

2006-08-31T07:32:00.000+01:00

I was listening to Radio 4 last night, unusual on a Wednesday night, and came acrosss a fascinating debate on a 45 minute show called Hecklers. Last night's show concerned the premise of Overseas Aid and Debt Relief and the arguments were put forward by a Ugandan journalist, Andrew Mwenda. Andrew's views were quite startling, but also eloquently put.

If you're interested in this topic, you will find it an interesting 45 minute listen. You can do that apparently on Saturday evening, 2nd september at 22.15 when it's repeated, or you can of course Listen Again. (Sorry, I don't know whether Listen Again is available to internet users outside the UK?).

Tags: BBC Radio4, Hecklers, Overseas Aid, Debt Relief, Mwenda

Infallible or just plain stupid?

2006-08-28T15:21:00.000+01:00

IMHO, religion has a lot to answer for.

Now, we have news that the pope (sorry, not going to give him a capital letter), is ready to embrace intelligent design. Even conservative Pope John Paul II had apparently said that Darwin's theories "were more than a hypothesis".

So, what gives with this pope? Is he having fond memories of his time in the Hitler Youth, and the Nazi's attempts at "intelligent design", generally known as eugenics? Or is he thinking back longingly to those Catholic Church glory days before Gallileo was causing trouble?

Cycling Hereford/Wales Border

2006-08-27T17:37:00.000+01:00

Here's some directions and information about another wonderful cycle ride we just completed, and this one isn't directly in any book that I know of (though bits and pieces of the ride can be found elsewhere). The ride is mostly in Herefordshire, but crosses into Wales on a few occasions. The satellite image of the route is here. GPS track information available from me - just drop me an email. OS Landranger Map 161 (Abergavenny) is all you'll need (though we actually used a map from Hereford Cycle User's Group that we picked up many years ago, but which doesn't appear to be online any more).

Unlike the last ride I posted, this one is quite a bit tougher - but about the same overall distance (about 41 miles). But, this is a really beautiful ride - fantastic scenery, a few castles, lovely churches, pubs, gardens, etc. It's all on-road, but in 41 miles merely traverses an A-road (twice), and probably has only about 6 miles on B roads.

We started from Skenfrith Castle on the B4521, with easy parking. Take a quick tour of the castle if you've got time (or when you return) - it's free! We then headed up to Grosmont - which also has an old castle, tea room and pub. We then passed through Kentchurch and Pontrilas before heading off (slightly off the route we meant to take) up a very steep hill towards Balls Cross down towards (but not into) Walterstone, then heading up to Clodock, Longtown and then onto Michaelchurch Escley. All of these tiny villages are lovely with a nice church and pub, and the scenery is just wonderful (skirting HayBluff, Black Hill, and Offa's Dyke path). Michaelchurch Escley is the highest point on route (well, just after) at about 950ft, but you're rewarded by a wonderful downhill to Vowchurch which also has a lovely unusual church. Briefly onto the B4348, then right onto the B4347 towards Abbeydore.

We visited the Abbey (photo above) a couple of weeks before. It's a real Abbey, but became a church around the reformation. Although being restored, it's still a lovely and impressive site. Around the corner is Abbeydore gardens with an award-winning tea-room/cafe. Well worth a stop, but not open every day.

We then headed back into the (mostly) pretty Ewyas Harold (pronounced, I think, u-wuss) back to Kentchurch, and this time followed a lovely road to Garway Common with more wonderful views (and a climb). We had a total climb on this route of around 2,700 ft. But the advantage with that is that there are few nice descents, and the best one was the last - back from Broad Oak to Skenfrith Castle (don't take the Skenfrith turn on Garway Common or you'll miss this one). You can then retire to the refurbished and seemingly popular Bell Inn for sustenance.

Truly a lovely route that shows the best of the Herefordshire countryside. And, lots to see and do to take up a full day if you've got time.

Tags: Cycling, Herefordshire, Skenfrith Castle, Abbeydore

The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill

2006-08-27T12:44:00.000+01:00

I have a soft spot for stories about parrots, and posted back in January on a few parrot stories that I quite enjoyed, including the parrot that shopped the owner's cheating girlfriend, and the anti-authoritarian parrot. And, not forgetting the amazing N'kisi with a 950 word vocabulary, and apparently capable of making phrases and using tenses.

On Friday evening I watched the documentary movie The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill. This is a lovely little (83 minute) film about, well, er, parrots. Telegraph Hill is a fashionable area of San Francisco, close to the Financial District. I lived in S.F. for about 6 years, and so have a great deal of affection for the City. Anyone who has been there will enjoy some of the lovely scenes in the movie. The parrot colony essentially came into being probably through escaped pets, but is quite thriving. Much of the movie also concerns Mark Bittner who had formerly drifted to the edges of society, and, through the parrots, has reconnected with it. There is a particularly nice twist at the end. Mark has names for each parrot and is quite unequivocable about each of them having personalities. I particularly liked Mingus.

Anyway, if you're looking for an uplifting, easy-to-watch movie, add it to your Netflix, Lovefilm, etc. queue, or pop down to your local video store (though good luck finding that title in most UK stores).

Tags: Wild Parrots, Telegraph Hill, Parrot

Apple and Creative

2006-08-24T09:51:00.000+01:00

A few words about yesterday's announced settlement between Apple and Creative, covered across the web:

1. Hasn't this been settled incredibly quickly?
2. While I don't know much about patent law, my instinct is to agree with Steve Job's view that Creative were fortunate to get the patent (as far as I can see, early spreadsheets and the NextStep finder both from 80's or hierarchical context-sensitive menus would surely count as prior art).
3. This then (against Steve's instincts to fight) is a settlement based on pragmatism and practicality for both parties, with perhaps a little deviousness thrown in from Steve himself.

For Creative, they get some urgently needed cash (ironically approximately equivalent to the amount they said they'd spend on advertising to dethrone the iPod this year); they get a sort of validation of the patent; and they get a simple (and cheap?) way into the made for iPod program (quite intriguing that one). They also get it resolved quickly allowing them to move on.

For Apple, they put this claim to bed, relatively cheaply both in cash terms and balance sheet. No (low) value has been put on the Creative patent, as it is a net settlement about BOTH companies' claims (indeed it potentially also recognises some of Apple's claims). It saves massive company time, legal costs and potentially massive damages and disruption (just ask Blackberry maker RIM).

Coincidentally, on the same day, Microsoft (and Autodesk) were forced to pay even more to a small company for a patent they violated that has taken many years to resolve. That didn't garner much press, but is notable in respect of the potential damage to Apple. If Apple thought there was even a 5% chance of Creative winning (and probably winning big), then they made a very smart choice.

But it's Microsoft that most pops into my mind when I consider the speed and pragmatism of both companies in settling this. A clause in the agreement allows Apple to get some of the payment back if/when Creative gets royalties from other companies (or sues them!). As Microsoft has suddenly gone from friend to foe for Creative (and others on the PlaysforSure program), there is a significant re-alignment of the chairs on deck. We now have to assume that Creative will also go after Microsoft when it finally releases Zune, emboldened by the settlement and better cash balances. That will hurt Microsoft in all the same ways as it promised to hurt Apple, but at a particularly vulnerable time for them. Apple gets to sit this one out and enjoy it from the sidelines.

Seems like a win-win for Apple to me, bought for a relatively lowly $100m and the loss of a bit of pride.

Tags: Apple, Creative, Patent, Zune, Microsoft