Google

Note: This is a fruit-free article.

A few weeks ago, Tim asked here about what I thought about Google. I think my answers were a bit weak, and I would readily admit to having poorly-formed opinions on Google. But Google was in the news lots last week at CES for a couple of things they did and one thing they didn't. I'll leave most of the comment to others on the web who I think covered things well.

What Google did:

1 Google Video. Google announced a video store which provides various types of content from paid-for-tv to user-supplied free video. There is a new Google DRM to go with it (of course - just what the world needed). Here's what Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg had to say:

Without a good mobile device to support it and the lack of ways of getting video from the PC to the TV, it's hard to see how this is going to work.

and

where's the advertising stohttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifry? The whole thing is a little puzzling. The content can work on your PC with a Google player but only un-protected content can go on your iPod or PSP. Want to guess how much of that premium content will be un-protected?

And, the hard-to-impress Register chimed in with this to say on Google DRM.

As far as I can see there are several other problems with this implementation:
a. variable pricing. I think this is NOT a good idea early on. The model will be confusing to the public.

b. variable usage - material may be for online viewing only, for rental, or for purchase - ditto (a) but even more so. This is going to cause problems. People want to hit "download" not review terms and conditions everytime they want something!

c. change to the Google-user "implicit contract". The public wants to like Google because it's free (and it "does no harm"). They don't put many demands on it. If it doesn't give what you want, then who cares? It hasn't cost you money. Do you even think about emailing Google and telling them that something didn't work? Your "relationship" with them is very clear. But at the point you start paying Google money, everything changes. Expectations change. Boy, had they better be ready for that. The 50cent download that doesn't work? The DRM failing when a user does something they weren't supposed to do, but didn't understand? It even affects your free relationships. So expect complaints about Google's searches to get more vociferous when they start charging customers for other parts of Google (and let's face it, search is not as good as it used to be).

2. Google Pack. A free package of software - not just from Google - to keep your computer working well and less dependent on you-know-who. I'm going to leave it to Paul Thurrott to show how badly they've got this wrong today (of course, they'll claim it's a beta again). I like Paul's style and I've always found him thorough. Paul's article is quite damning, and here are a few choice bits:

....this bizarre collection of applications, each with its own distinct user interface, level of quality, and method of updating, actually does more to credit Microsoft's integration strategy than it does to prove the notion that Google knows anything about creating software.

...it's worth noting that many of these applications feature annoying upgrade advertisements aimed at getting you to purchase the full versions

...But most problematic, many of these applications aren't even up-to-date. For example, the free version of Norton Antivirus includes virus definitions that are, as of this writing, an astonishing four months out of date

...When the installation process is complete--a full install took about 13 minutes on my test system--the Google Pack Installer will note that you can now manage the application suite from the Installed Software tab......Despite what the Google Pack Installer says, however, you're not done. Oh, no, not even close. As you launch each application, you'll discover that various other installation tasks still need to occur. For example....Norton Antivirus has to be updated three times, each of which requires a reboot. Ad-Aware SE Personal and RealPlayer 10.5 both need to be updated, and the latter will optionally install even more crud on your system if you let it, plus you'll have to register with RealNetworks to get the update

...But it still took me about 90 minutes from start to finish, along with several system reboots, to get this suite of applications up and running on my test PC.

...Not only is Google human, buts the flaws in Google Pack suggest that this company has a long, long way to go before it can ever justify its insanely lofty stock price. Google Pack is a mixed bag of applications, some useful and some not, though virtually all are deficient in some way as packaged here

...It's just a mess.

Oh dear!

Sure, Paul is a Microsoft fundamentalist but it is an article written by somebody who has thoroughly used the Google Pack rather than someone who's just read the specs. It is hard to fault Paul on the points he makes.

But now onto what Google didn't do...

3. The Google PC

There were some strong rumours leading up to CES that Google would announce a PC. While officially denied by Google, in questions after the keynote with Google co-founder Larry Page.... that denial didn't seem wholly convincing.

I have to say that if Google gets into the hardware business then I think they've truly lost the plot. Google's model is wonderful in it simplicity today. And it has huge potential to grow that market. But trying to make the consumer a paying part of that model is going to be very difficult indeed and risks destroying the relationship model they have. And, attacking the markets of people who Google still needs as friends (eg Dell) does not strike me as very clever. Of the three initiatives, I think Google Pack is the most interesting (and the least ambitious). But I think their delivery on the new items (and some other recent introductions) shows a large amount of immaturity, as indeed did their CES performance.

One more datapoint for why no dual cores...

Dell has announced a number of new products at CES. Among them is a new laptop - the Inspiron E1705, using the dual core Yonah's. Like the Acer, this is a high end laptop - in fact a 17" model in this case. Cheapest price is £2299 (though they already appear to be discounting it to $1999 on dell.com). For that, you get a lower quality/res screen, combo drive, 1.83Ghz Yonah, and an 80GB 5400 rpm disk. Also at that price it comes without XP Pro. A fully-loaded model comparable to 17" Powerbook lists (after discount) at $3046 (contrast current 17" PB at $2599).

So, that's another datapoint why none of the cheaper new Intel macs are going to be dual core.

Indeed at these sorts of prices I think it is likely that the first dual core Powerbooks (if they use these chips) will be MORE expensive than current machines (though of course they will perform substantially better). And if Apple makes use of the LV dual cores, then these will also carry an initial high price.

I'd be happy to be proved wrong. Last year, I didn't believe they would introduce a Mac at $499, so track record in this area is not good. But this seems too much of a stretch to me.

With the appearance of dual core Yonah laptops though, it might at least increase the likelihood of such models appearing from Apple sooner than I had originally thought (original estimate Q3).

Yawn

Jesus, Hobson, when are you going to give this Apple thing a break?

Well, I apologise to regular readers (if any?) who are interested in something other than Apple. I honestly believe this week (CES) and the next (MacWorld) are truly pivotal moments in the history of the personal computer. So, a lot of the posts will be about that topic from an Apple fan point of view of course, but hopefully with a dose of reality.

Normal service (ie only 50% of stories about Apple-related things) will be resumed starting week of 16th Jan.

Corebook?

I've been following some of Paul Thurrott's blogs recently. Paul is considered by many mac faithful to be akin to the devil, but really he has some intelligent things to say on his various blogs. His reviews of Vista are excellent and good reading for all who are interested in where the OS's are going.

Sure he's a Windows fan, but he's not afraid to try things outside his MS-based world and to make insightful observations. That's a hard thing to do, really. Recently he bought his wife a Mac for instance, and has blogged pretty positively on that. He's also a big iPod supporter. Apple fans would do well to read Paul's reports!

But I'd like to take issue with a little post made a few days ago suggesting that new Macs might be called CoreBooks and CoreMacs. I think the logic is something like this - Intel now calls their new chips Core Solo and Core Duo. Previously Apple used PowerPC's. So it's easy to make that leap, right? Not so fast Paul. PowerBooks were called PowerBooks when they were first released in around 1991, and used Motorola 68030 (?) chips. The Power in PowerBook has nothing to do with PowerPC - perhaps its the other way even! The PowerBook and PowerMac brand are very important and I really doubt they'll be disposed of in the switch.

And, I also doubt if the first PowerMacs will use the Core Duo branding anyhow. They should be based on next generation 64-bit Intel chips which may carry a different name.

So, I don't expect we'll get CoreBooks to replace PowerBooks. However, I guess it's not inconceivable we could get a DuoBook as a new introduction somewhere in the range?

Top 10 MacWorld 2006 announcements

I was going to wait to publish this, but if I wait any longer it'll look like I just tracked Apple's website for accidental slipups! So here are my predictions now in order of likelihood and for all to see:

1. More iTunes video content announcements (more tv and maybe full length movies)
2. New 1GB iPod
3. Intel-based iBook
4. Intel-based Mac mini
5. iLife 06 (oh, I think I've been trumped on this one!)
6. Wireless video distribution device (AirportExpress2?)
7. iWork 06 (plus new spreadsheet package?)
8. Mid-range Intel-based dual core laptop
9. iPod accessory - audio or video recorder; wireless add-on?
10. Just one more thing....

More on Intel Mac pricing...

Paul Guinnessy posted a comment on the "Pricing" Myth/Reality earlier this week which pointed out the difference in R&D spending between Apple and Dell. His view on pricing was not to expect any reduction at all.

As CES proceeds this week, Apple fans have much more to watch than usual. Intel have announced prices and specific availability for Yonah chips (nicely summarised here, but without pricing on older chips). And, as a comparison to what Apple will be offering we have the first specifications of a Yonah-powered laptop from Acer - the Acer Travelmate 8200.

Now, there's lots you can draw upon here if you believe as Paul and I do that Apple is not about to become a low-margin computer company. Forget for a minute the absolute price listed. It's not what Apple or any mainstream manufacturer will be paying. Instead look at the relative price of the chips within the new family and also compared to older chips. Then let's take a look at a manufacturer like Acer who use many of the chips today, and see how they price up their machines.

The cheapest chips I could find in Intel's list were the following:
Intel Celeron M mobile 350/350J. These run at 1.3GHz and are listed at $86, moving up to the 370 running at 1.5Ghz and listed at $107. These chips are used in many low-end machines today. The cheapest Yonah-based chip is the T1300 single core listed at $209. The first dual core is listed at $241, and the the first low voltage variant (dual core) is at $284.

I then looked around the Acer catalogue for machines which used some of these chips. Remember, Mac mini pricing starts at £306 with the iBook at £595 today. I came across the following models (though the catalogue is large and this analysis is cursory):

1. Aspire 3610 range starting at £449 using the 370series chip (listed at $107)
2. Travelmate 2403 14.1" starting at £469 and again using the 370 series chip
3. Aspire 5500 a 14.1" model using the M740 chip starting at £749
4. Aspire 1652 a 15.4" model using the M740 Centrino starting at £649 (Intel list price $268)

I couldn't find any 12" displays from Acer, so most models are either 14.1" or 15.4". Nevertheless, using a ratio of Final list price to Intel chip price gives a ratio of between 4.2 and 7.4. i.e the list prices range between 4.2 and 7.4 times the price of the chip used. The higher ratio tends to fall on the cheaper machines not surprisingly. But let's apply those same ratios to the current iBook pricing of UK £595. That gives a possible chip budget of between $141 and $248. So, unless Apple has some other big economies that Acer doesn't (highly unlikely) the best that we can expect is a chipset costing around $248, but most likely less.

The only chip that falls in that category is the T1300 at $209. And that's not in the Centrino format which costs $274. The cheapest dual core chip is the T2300 at $241 but again without Centrino. Note also these are not the LV (low-voltage) or ULV (ultra low voltage) chips. The LV chips are more expensive and not available (yet) as single core.

So, on that basis, if we get an Intel-based iBook it will most likely be a single core variant even just to preserve today's pricing ratio. Not only that, because it will not be a LV variant, we shouldn't expect this machine to be significantly smaller or with much better battery life than today's model - just faster.

Now an alternative approach to this bottom up method is to look at the Acer Travelmate 8200 spec. Here we see a fairly bulky machine - at 6.6lbs. It's got a very good spec indeed and it uses the T2500 chipset - around $488 list. So, this is a pro machine in pro-pricing area. I have not been able to find list price for this machine as it is not formally announced, but I would expect it to be in Powerbook territory. An iBook using a similar chipset or the LV dual-core chipset will be similarly expensive.

Looking at the other parts of my myth/reality series, this actually fits together nicely. The new iBook will be a good machine indeed benefiting from the improvements in Yonah chips over predecessors and in Mac OS X being faster on Intel. But it will NOT be a dual-core performance star that decimates the Powerbook quite yet. It will however put even more pressure on the PB range (after all the GHz difference today is just 1.33 to 1.5 - historically low). And, Apple's competitors will be in a position with dual core machines to heap further pressure on that range. So, I still think there is a chance we can either have an iBook+ or a new mid-range notebook that does use dual core and tides most people over until Merom chips arrive later in the year and provide a dual core 64bit Powerbook. Perhaps if Apple also made use of the low-voltage dual core (L2300) this would allow a smaller form factor and new design to be introduced.

As for the Mac mini, well, the conclusion is little different. Today's machine runs chips (and indeed the whole motherboard) similar to the iBook. Expect nothing more than the T1300 single core in the low end models, and even that is a squeeze price wise. Perhaps there'll be a larger range allowing dual core chips to be used. But here again, I wonder if the mini form factor will require the low-voltage chips if it is to remain quiet. Perhaps a super-mini aimed at media centre usage would utilise this model.

And finally, my thoughts on Firewire on these machines for what it's worth. The mood recently seems to have swung against firewire being dropped from any model. I've predicted the death of firewire, and I still do. Though I should perhaps be specific - this will be a drawn-out affair. I do not expect Apple to drop Firewire from all Intel machines. But I do think they would be wise to drop it from the base mini and iBook models if they can squeeze a couple more USB ports in, and offer something else and/or reduced pricing. With the imminent arrival of wireless USB, firewire will offer little advantage to the target market (with the exception of those with certain camcorders, older iPods, and iSight cameras). They will get no credit in mainstream reviews for having Firewire, so why bother except to incur the wrath of those who can't see when is the right time to let go (and who mostly buy the higher end machines anyway)?

In conclusion, this analysis is not exhaustive and does not benefit from either insider knowledge of factors or indeed any expert knowledge at all! The primary assumption is that Apple operates in a competitive hardware market in which it is governed by most of the same forces as its competitors (chip prices, LCD prices, RAM, disk etc). These are the best guesses I can make based on what is publicly available. But if I am even remotely correct on these points, I maintain that the hype level has already exceeded what can and will be delivered, and the famous SJ "Reality Distortion Field" will need to operate in hyperdrive to satisfy the troops. Can he pull something out of the hat that no one is expecting? Personally, I think these are solid steps for Apple on a complex and tricky migration on which they already seem to be ahead of what they publicly announced. But I'm not so sure everyone else will feel so positive.

Hob's Top 5's for 2005 and looking ahead

Well everyone else is doing it, so here's a few top 5 lists I put together. Obviously from an Apple-fan viewpoint, but as you'll see, I've included a few other things!

Hob's top 5 gadgets for 2005

(Requirement is that I've bought it and used it in 2005!)
1. iPod 5th Gen (video). While the iPod nano is also an exceptional introduction, I think the engineering in the full-size iPod is unbelievable - a significantly smaller package that does a lot more at the same price point. It is not the definitive portable video device, but it will open up the market for such devices and will usher in new ways of delivering content.
2. My Airnimal Black Rhino bike. I also love the engineering here too - a full-suspension folding bike with as few compromises as you could have. I've covered about 700 miles on this so far and hope to do an international adventure this year, but it has been great fun already and very useful
3. Nokia 6680 3G Phone. I'm quite impressed with this - it's just about the right compromise for me in size vs functionality. Most of it works well, and I am pleased with the Bluetooth functionality for synching with the Mac, the Salling Clicker remote control software, and photo transfer. I've also been pleased with the data access side - esp using Opera. WAP pages are fast and easy to navigate. I'd just wish for a longer battery life even if just 50% my previous model, and a better camera!
4. Apple Mac mini. I'm really pleased with this. It's worked flawlessly and is very quiet. It is a great addition to my hifi/tv cabinet.
5. Etymotic ER6i earphones. It is amazing to me how something so small can produce such great sound. Sure there are better ones available, but these are just about affordable for someone buying a high-end iPod. And if you care about your music you'd do well to earmark your budget to some like this (or Shure)

Hob's Top 5 Software faves for 2005

1. NetNewsWire. This really has transformed my productivity. It's a great application, and I hope it's recent takeover is a postive one. If you're reading this blog, you probably already know about RSS and RSS readers. But if not and you're a mac user, get the lite version of this app and give yourself a day or so to see what it can do.
2. Mac OS X 10.4. Yes, this is an important development. It has been very robust in my experience, and while a bit memory hungry, generally performs well and faster than previous versions. It is the benchmark on which Vista will be judged.
3. Salling Clicker. What a clever piece of software! And now it supports PC's too. If you have a compatible Bluetooth phone/device you should try this out. I particularly like a new feature in v3 whereby I can connect using BT to my powerbook then thru to the Mac mini which is out of BT range using the house 802.11g network. And little things like pausing a DVD your watching when the phone rings is so cool! Great value.
4. ElGato EyeTV. I'm also in love with this application (and hardware too I guess). The size of the tuner is incredible. It performs pretty well though I do still have a problem with letting the machine sleep. With the included subscription I can set recordings anywhere on the net. I particularly like recording BBC radio stations and exporting them to iTunes for playing on long car journeys.
5. NoteBook 2.0. This is also a clever app which both Sue and I have used extensively (Sue's use is for her lab notebook). It's the first notebook I've ever used which I haven't given up on in a few weeks. Very useful for clips of information or writing a complete set of interview notes. Anything can be found very quickly indeed. Finally somewhere you can keep EVERYTHING.

Honourable mentions also for: Keynote 2.0; Skype. And next year I hope to have concluded which tools to use for video compression/iPod transfer including Handbrake, ffmpegx, Podner.

Top 5 developments this year (IT wise)

1. iPod video and video iTMS - the kick-start for video-everywhere.
2. XBox360 - the start of the next generation games consoles and an important introduction in home device convergence.
3. Desktop Search - as realised by Google and Mac OS X. These tools have changed the way we find things. While not rendering folder structures obsolete, they are much more forgiving of our own filing failures.
4. Web2.0. I mention this as I'm not sure at this point that it's just Bubble 2.0 or real. It's nice to see some energy back in this area though. 2006 should decide.
5. Apple + Intel. This is a fascinating development with huge potential repercussions if Apple can get it right. Again 2006 will be a defining year for how it actually transpires.

Top 5 things to watch for in 2006 (IT again)

1. Vista. This has to be number 1. Microsoft has a lot to lose by getting this wrong. We won't know till towards the end of the year at the earliest, but this story is going to be key to IT in 2007 onwards. It's a real challenge to Apple (as well as an opportunity).
2. Playstation3 introduction. Again this will be fascinating for the power play between Sony and MS. I don't think Sony can afford to fail, but will it be too little too late? Also will be a key to what happens with home device convergence.
3. HD-DVD vs Blu-ray format war. Perhaps linked with the PS3 intro, but this story will also be important. As much as anything for whether either can take off. How will consumers take to them - especially if they introduce more restrictive DRM into our lives?
4. DRM. This topic will be fascinating during 2006. But there are 2 elements to this that both are interesting - creeping DRM in physical formats as demonstrated by Sony's mistakes in 2005, and the new formats mentioned above. And proprietary DRM's in digital formats (Apple's Fairplay; MS Plays-for-sure). Will consumers turn off or will they embrace one or more DRM's? Will the content providers wake up and realise they need to provide at least an open and fair DRM?
5. Apple + Intel. 2005 was the announcement, but 2006 is the year of delivery. Will it be revolutionary or evolutionary? How can Apple build on success of iPod? Will it shoot itself in the foot again?

(Heh, not bad - just one Apple topic in that last list!)

And a couple of other forecasts:
1. The first Apple Mac OS X virus or spyware will be unleashed. It will cause a lot of publicity, but will in fact have relatively little effect.
2. There will a major ground shift in the IT industry which will change the competitive landscape significantly most likely through M&A or via a significant partnership. (no, I'm not being more specific even if it is a cheap forecast!).