A conversation with an O2 store manager, fresh back from iPhone training:
Me: "So, what IS the fair usage policy for the 'unlimited data plan' going to be on the iPhone accounts?"
O2: "40Gigabytes"
Me: "Really, that actually seems quite high to me and not what I had read. I had even heard that it might be as low as 200MB. Are you sure?"
O2: "Oh, no, sorry, the 40GB is for our new home broadband package. But it's very high for the iPhone, definitely."
Me: "Er, so, what actually is it?"
O2: "Um, er..." rummaging around various papers, and the website (which said nothing other than "fair usage policy applies"). "...I'll call a guy who's sure to know".
O2 guy on phone with other O2 guy: "A customer here wants to know the iPhone fair usage policy amounts". pause and more pause. Quite clearly the guy who's sure to know doesn't actually know.
Slightly embarassed O2 guy to me: "He thinks it's either 70MB or 200MB. Either way, that's a huge amount of data on a phone."
Me: "Really, as low as 70MB? That doesn't seem to be too much for what is described as unlimited data".
O2: "For email, it's all text and there's not much else you'd get that is large".
Me: ??? (too gobsmacked to contradict him).
So, I leave non-the-wiser, except that I have confirmed that o2 retail is just as poor as I expected. The only thing the store manager (post training, remember) knew that I didn't is that the sales opening time is not 6pm, but 6.02pm. (geddit?). He was very proud of that. Oh, he also knew (or thought) they would have 60,000 on sale in the 400 odd o2 stores, and that they might get delivery that day (Friday) for the week ahead - (hope their security is tight).
Nevertheless after 10 years with Orange and Nokia, I have my PAC number and will be in line on Friday (mercifully at an Apple store), with no qualms whatsoever about switching. While I was impressed with the last Orange rep I spoke to, I have had a very poor year with them at every level with a completely defective handset (Nokia N80) that was essentially unusable for the things it promised, and poorer than any recent phone I've had in terms of basic interface and even for the job of making calls and sending texts. Despite my 3G plan, I have almost never used the web browser, and I would not countenance emailing with it. The Wi-Fi feature was so badly implemented as to be worse than not having it as it could not be disabled. I have a list of fundamental problems with the phone, some of which should have been addressed by firmware which never came. While the N95 successor may have fixed some of these shortcomings, I have generally heard negative things from most recent real users of these devices after a short time of actually using them. (An interface requiring 16 different button presses before you start typing the body of an sms is completely ludicrous.)
I do wish Orange (a lesser company than they were imho), or Vodafone, had won the rights, but I have known from the minute I saw the announcement that I would get one (did you imagine anything else?). Having briefly played with an unlocked one, that decision was vindicated.
While clearly a cost of around £900 over 18 months is a lot, it is not much different than the plan I had with Orange including the upgrade cost for the N80, which did not include wi-fi hot spot access and had severe caps on data and SMS. I know that I will use the features of this device, which I would not (and could not) on the N80. The equally expensive N95 would not have rectified most of the N80's shortcomings in my mind.
However, somebody please at O2, sort out what "unlimited data plan" and "fair usage policy applies" really means. And, the latest wording on the website "All usage must be for your private, personal and non-commercial purposes" does not inspire confidence in that regards. Nor does "(not) use your SIM Card or iPhone to allow the continuous streaming of any audio / video content, enable P2P or file sharing or use them in such a way that adversely impacts the service to other O2 customers". C'mon, are you serious? In reality, any usage of a shared service like a cell causes degradation to the others on that cell.
While I do not expect to use the iPhone as a replacement broadband + computer device, I don't see that "unlimited" and "70MB" go together, nor restrictions about zero business/commercial use. These clauses are both stupid and unenforceable.
I am, perhaps, trusting too much in the regulator to intervene if such ridiculous limitations are in reality applied. Nevertheless, I will be in-line somewhere off Regent Street starting Friday afternoon. Hope to see you there!
Tags: iPhone, Apple, O2, Fair Usage Policy,
Unlimited data
03 November 2007
Blogging hiatus and ChargeBox
Just a quick note as to my recent blogging silence. Hopefully you've all (the two of you that is) not gone away.
I've been working increasingly long hours and that is only going to get worse for a while longer. For the last 36 months (the last 18 months of which in a part-time consultant FD role) I've been involved with an exciting company called ChargeBox®, and as of the 1st November, I will be taking over as MD - even if just for a year or so until the founder, Toby returns from an extended sabbatical helping Oxfam in Nepal.
ChargeBox® is a kiosk for the 21st century - in our case charging mobile phones, smartphones, mp3 players and portable game consoles in a secure locker. We've designed the ChargeBox®, got it manufactured in the UK (yes!) and are developing a global brand with kiosks now in France, Iceland, Spain, Ireland, Turkey, South Africa and, soon, Papua New Guinea. You can also find them in 14 high street phone stores of a certain mobile phone company I couldn't possibly mention. Our ChargeBox is equipped with a GSM module allowing 2-way SMS and GPRS data connections for monitoring purposes and even a payment-by-SMS function. Our web-based IT system allows us to monitor the performance of every ChargeBox® around the world with a SIM card. We were featured on BBC Click earlier this year.
We're still very small, and we have a lot of challenges, but we're hoping for some major progress soon, both domestically and internationally. If you use a ChargeBox®, let me/us know what you think.
Visit our website at http://www.chargebox.com to find out more, to look at maps of where they are and instructions on how to find a chargebox when you're out and about.
I will look to bring back some blogging around this subject and my usual rants in the months ahead. Unfortunately, much of what I'd like to say about growing a small company has to remain confidential (because of our clients), so that makes some topics off-limits. Do keep subscribed, and do let me know your thoughts on ChargeBox® if/when you get a chance/need to use one.
Inevitable iPhone post coming up (in case you thought I'd gone soft)....
Tags: ChargeBox®
I've been working increasingly long hours and that is only going to get worse for a while longer. For the last 36 months (the last 18 months of which in a part-time consultant FD role) I've been involved with an exciting company called ChargeBox®, and as of the 1st November, I will be taking over as MD - even if just for a year or so until the founder, Toby returns from an extended sabbatical helping Oxfam in Nepal.
ChargeBox® is a kiosk for the 21st century - in our case charging mobile phones, smartphones, mp3 players and portable game consoles in a secure locker. We've designed the ChargeBox®, got it manufactured in the UK (yes!) and are developing a global brand with kiosks now in France, Iceland, Spain, Ireland, Turkey, South Africa and, soon, Papua New Guinea. You can also find them in 14 high street phone stores of a certain mobile phone company I couldn't possibly mention. Our ChargeBox is equipped with a GSM module allowing 2-way SMS and GPRS data connections for monitoring purposes and even a payment-by-SMS function. Our web-based IT system allows us to monitor the performance of every ChargeBox® around the world with a SIM card. We were featured on BBC Click earlier this year.
We're still very small, and we have a lot of challenges, but we're hoping for some major progress soon, both domestically and internationally. If you use a ChargeBox®, let me/us know what you think.
Visit our website at http://www.chargebox.com to find out more, to look at maps of where they are and instructions on how to find a chargebox when you're out and about.
I will look to bring back some blogging around this subject and my usual rants in the months ahead. Unfortunately, much of what I'd like to say about growing a small company has to remain confidential (because of our clients), so that makes some topics off-limits. Do keep subscribed, and do let me know your thoughts on ChargeBox® if/when you get a chance/need to use one.
Inevitable iPhone post coming up (in case you thought I'd gone soft)....
Tags: ChargeBox®
20 September 2007
Wales looks to the future...
I came across this article today with Plaid Cymru (the Welsh political party) banning wi-fi in its schools. Lots of comments from ignorami, and none from anyone knowledgeable.
Added to this story from last week where a school governor and Labour party researcher called the Welsh language "practically brain dead" on an internet chat room (He later claimed he meant to say "dead" not "brain dead"). He was forced to quit for his honesty and reality. I don't have a problem with Welsh being taught and people electing to learn it. But to pretend that making this compulsory does not reduce learning of some other subjects of more vocational use is just plain delusional.
In this day and age of globalisation and competitiveness, it strikes me the Welsh are heading towards being the Amish of the EU with these sorts of attitudes. I find it particularly sad that in both cases the stories are reported as if there is only one side - the side of the Luddite. No wonder Wales is a permanent drain on the UK and EU taxpayer to subsidise its industry.
Tags: British Press, Welsh, WiFi
Added to this story from last week where a school governor and Labour party researcher called the Welsh language "practically brain dead" on an internet chat room (He later claimed he meant to say "dead" not "brain dead"). He was forced to quit for his honesty and reality. I don't have a problem with Welsh being taught and people electing to learn it. But to pretend that making this compulsory does not reduce learning of some other subjects of more vocational use is just plain delusional.
In this day and age of globalisation and competitiveness, it strikes me the Welsh are heading towards being the Amish of the EU with these sorts of attitudes. I find it particularly sad that in both cases the stories are reported as if there is only one side - the side of the Luddite. No wonder Wales is a permanent drain on the UK and EU taxpayer to subsidise its industry.
Tags: British Press, Welsh, WiFi
03 August 2007
Life Returns to Normal? (humour)
I posted about the devastating floods in Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire a couple of weeks ago. Hundreds of thousands of people have been affected with no electricity and no water for almost two weeks. Thousands of businesses have been devastated through damage or the by-product of the economy as it normally is, just coming to a halt. (Of course, our experiences next to South East Asia are themselves relatively trifling).
So, it was good to see, while on a cycle ride through Herefordshire today, that life has obviously returned to normal as witnessed by THE major news in the Hereford Times which I was able to snap for your benefit. Note that The Hereford Times is THE key local newspaper for one of the areas most affected by these floods.
I continued to suffer fits of laughter for the rest of the bike ride, wondering for instance whether the reporter thought that seagulls should be able to distinguish between guide dogs and ordinary dogs (presumably fair game for seagulls), or whether the reporter felt that SOMEBODY had to act - perhaps by issuing ASBOs to the anti-social seagulls? Or maybe, seagulls have a code for divebombing which awards additional points for getting guide dogs or blind people as in the 70's film Death Race 2000? Unfortunately, I cannot answer these questions as I couldn't bring myself to buy a copy.
But in the end (sadly and humourlessly) the sheer inanity of this headline is just another tiny bit of evidence in my slowly growing dossier on the patheticness of the British press (and perhaps its readership). While a troubling incident to, er, the blind person and indeed the guide dog, after such devastation, and indeed, even without it, are there not more public interest stories in Herefordshire deserving of our attention than this? (Yes, there are, fortunately the BBC has many).
Tags: British Press, Hereford, Hereford Times, July Floods
26 July 2007
Holding the Observer to account (again)
Back last year, the (Sunday) Observer newspaper - sister to the Guardian - ran a truly amazing full-page article entitled "Why the iPod is losing its cool" by David Smith, supposed technology correspondent.
In this article, Mr Smith, claimed that
This article was written as a factual piece not an opinion piece. I made mention of it in this blog post, but decided not to attack it then. After all, perhaps David knew something I didn't and that iPod sales WERE in freefall?
I further chose not to comment on it after Apple's first quarterly announcement post the Smith article when they demonstrated once again iPod sales had risen 35% over the previous year. I again avoided the urge to comment after the December quarter when sales rose an astonishing 50% over the previous year (a year when both the iPod video and iPod nano had been introduced to much acclaim). I chose not to comment on it after Apple's Q2 announcement in April, when sales were up 24%. But now, a full 4 quarters of reporting has passed, and really, I can't let it sit any longer.
In the quarter just gone, iPod sales were up again - 21% in fact over the same quarter last year. In that 12 months, Apple's iPod sales were 35% up on the previous year. In that last year, Apple has sold over 50million iPods which represent 47% of all iPods ever sold. In other words, Apple has in the last 12 months sold just about as many iPods as it did in the previous 5 years COMBINED. Furthermore, in the iPod's history, it has never suffered a sales decline on a year-over-year basis on any measurable financial quarter.
That doesn't sound like a product that is either "losing its cool" or suffering from "declining sales at an unprecedented rate". I haven't seen too many analysts dissing the iPod either (though there's always a few media boys).
What was the reason for Mr Smith's article? Was it to try to create a backlash? Was it influenced by another company about to launch a product? Was he hoping to be able to claim when a possible iPod decline came along that he was first? Or was it just absolute stupidity and ignorance?
Would Mr Smith or the Observer like to apologise and to admit they have been wildly wrong? Would they care to write a similar full page article gushing about the apparently unstoppable iPod phenomenon? Given how the Observer can not even bring itself to apologise about a life and death issue it has got blatantly wrong, I'm not holding my breath.
(I'd like to think there ISN'T a conspiracy here and that it is plain ignorance. I suspect Mr Smith used two sequential quarters of iPods sold to point to a decline. That's a pretty poor way to use statistics that surely anyone at school is taught about. It was also an "unprecedented rate of decline" because there had never been a decline (and there still hasn't unless you believe consumer products exhibit no seasonality).
How about owning up, David, and saying you were absolutely and completely wrong? Or are you going to try getting the same message out again in the hope that at SOME point in the future, you will actually be right?
Tags: Apple, iPod, Observer, Sales, Guardian
In this article, Mr Smith, claimed that
Sales are declining at an unprecedented rate. Industry experts talk of a 'backlash' and of the iPod 'wilting away before our eyes'
This article was written as a factual piece not an opinion piece. I made mention of it in this blog post, but decided not to attack it then. After all, perhaps David knew something I didn't and that iPod sales WERE in freefall?
I further chose not to comment on it after Apple's first quarterly announcement post the Smith article when they demonstrated once again iPod sales had risen 35% over the previous year. I again avoided the urge to comment after the December quarter when sales rose an astonishing 50% over the previous year (a year when both the iPod video and iPod nano had been introduced to much acclaim). I chose not to comment on it after Apple's Q2 announcement in April, when sales were up 24%. But now, a full 4 quarters of reporting has passed, and really, I can't let it sit any longer.
In the quarter just gone, iPod sales were up again - 21% in fact over the same quarter last year. In that 12 months, Apple's iPod sales were 35% up on the previous year. In that last year, Apple has sold over 50million iPods which represent 47% of all iPods ever sold. In other words, Apple has in the last 12 months sold just about as many iPods as it did in the previous 5 years COMBINED. Furthermore, in the iPod's history, it has never suffered a sales decline on a year-over-year basis on any measurable financial quarter.
That doesn't sound like a product that is either "losing its cool" or suffering from "declining sales at an unprecedented rate". I haven't seen too many analysts dissing the iPod either (though there's always a few media boys).
What was the reason for Mr Smith's article? Was it to try to create a backlash? Was it influenced by another company about to launch a product? Was he hoping to be able to claim when a possible iPod decline came along that he was first? Or was it just absolute stupidity and ignorance?
Would Mr Smith or the Observer like to apologise and to admit they have been wildly wrong? Would they care to write a similar full page article gushing about the apparently unstoppable iPod phenomenon? Given how the Observer can not even bring itself to apologise about a life and death issue it has got blatantly wrong, I'm not holding my breath.
(I'd like to think there ISN'T a conspiracy here and that it is plain ignorance. I suspect Mr Smith used two sequential quarters of iPods sold to point to a decline. That's a pretty poor way to use statistics that surely anyone at school is taught about. It was also an "unprecedented rate of decline" because there had never been a decline (and there still hasn't unless you believe consumer products exhibit no seasonality).
How about owning up, David, and saying you were absolutely and completely wrong? Or are you going to try getting the same message out again in the hope that at SOME point in the future, you will actually be right?
Tags: Apple, iPod, Observer, Sales, Guardian
Apple Overtakes Hewlett Packard
A quick observation following the market today digesting Apple's Q3 results announced last night.
Apple has now overtaken HP in terms of market capitalisation (as of 26th July at 14:45 GMT). (Market Capitalisation is the figure that represents the total enterprise value attached to that company by the stock market). That is quite an achievement, as it was little more than than a year ago that it overtook Dell Computer. Apple is now close to double Dell's market capitalisation. To match HP, Apple has done very well indeed. It's not as if HP has had a bad time either - taking significant business from Dell in recent quarters.
Apple has also overtaken Oracle in the last year. The next target, ironically, is Intel - currently around $141bn. Then Google at $158bn, closely behind Cisco and IBM each in the $170bn range. Overhauling any of these companies could happen with a good year or two for Apple, though it would also require comparative stagnation for those companies. I certainly wouldn't bet against Google!
Microsoft is still a long way ahead of the rest of the IT industry with a market cap of around $280bn. We'll have to wait a while longer before that is even a possibility.
As always with such numbers, there is a lot of variation from hour to hour and day to day. Apple and HP will no doubt each be trying to push ahead of each other over the coming few months before a clear trend emerges. But for now, we've got a 1-1 draw in the first match of a long season.
Tags: Apple, Hewlett Packard, Intel, Market Capitalisation, IBM
Apple has now overtaken HP in terms of market capitalisation (as of 26th July at 14:45 GMT). (Market Capitalisation is the figure that represents the total enterprise value attached to that company by the stock market). That is quite an achievement, as it was little more than than a year ago that it overtook Dell Computer. Apple is now close to double Dell's market capitalisation. To match HP, Apple has done very well indeed. It's not as if HP has had a bad time either - taking significant business from Dell in recent quarters.
Apple has also overtaken Oracle in the last year. The next target, ironically, is Intel - currently around $141bn. Then Google at $158bn, closely behind Cisco and IBM each in the $170bn range. Overhauling any of these companies could happen with a good year or two for Apple, though it would also require comparative stagnation for those companies. I certainly wouldn't bet against Google!
Microsoft is still a long way ahead of the rest of the IT industry with a market cap of around $280bn. We'll have to wait a while longer before that is even a possibility.
As always with such numbers, there is a lot of variation from hour to hour and day to day. Apple and HP will no doubt each be trying to push ahead of each other over the coming few months before a clear trend emerges. But for now, we've got a 1-1 draw in the first match of a long season.
Tags: Apple, Hewlett Packard, Intel, Market Capitalisation, IBM
25 July 2007
iPhone Sales Numbers - BEFORE Q3 results
I'm writing this BEFORE Apple announces today's earnings, but AFTER the crazy market/media reaction to news that AT&T "only" activated 146,000 iPhones by 30th June.
What IS amazing is that in 30 hours, from 6pm Friday to midnight Saturday, 146,000 iPhones were purchased, taken home, unboxed, plugged into a computer, and then successfully activated. Had anyone suggested such numbers even a day or two before the iPhone was released, they would have been considered an optimist. Now, some are comparing the 146,000 number to some mythical 1million figure some analysts ended up speculating on.
As far as I can recall, I have seen few analyst projections of 1million iPhones and certainly not even in the few day initial period. I have seen numbers as low as 50,000 (originally from Shawn Wu of American Technology Research, and general Apple bull) to perhaps 350,000 from Goldman Sachs. Some of those numbers were then doubled AFTER the weekend (to 700,000 in the case of Goldman Sachs).
But remember here, the weekend includes a Sunday - only the second full shopping day the iPhone was on sale. How many iPhones could not be activated at first (certainly a few by some rumours)? How many iPhones did not get activated by the Saturday evening because the person hadn't had time, was keeping the iPhone as a present, or whatever other excuse? How many iPhones were ordered from the online stores on those days for later delivery?
And, what is success anyway? Is failure just the inability to hit whatever highest number some analyst (perhaps a naysayer anyway) set just to create a headline?
At 146,000 iPhones sold in 30 hours, Apple and AT&T created a revenue stream of $292m to share between them over 24 months.
Today, Apple will report its own financial figures for the last quarter (its financial close period which began BEFORE the iPhone was released is the fundamental reason it has not been legally able to comment on sales before this time). Apple may also (like AT&T) choose to report just the 30 hour period (or perhaps 33 hour period in its case being based on the West Coast). But, even in this period it will include over the counter sales - not activations. It may also account for sales via the AT&T store differently - as these essentially are sales as a wholesaler of the product.
My wild guess at this point is that Apple will report sales of around 225,000 or more for the 30 hour period. And, if they are to report sales for the first week, or first month (we're just 2 days away from that point), we will genuinely see that they will have between 400,000/700,000 and 500,000/1million iPhones in people's hands today (firstweektarget/firstmonth target). I suspect Apple's control of PR extends to its agreement with AT&T and allows it to publish the first important headline numbers for sales.
Sales of more than 500,000 iPhones will be a 2 year revenue stream of at least $1billion between Apple and AT&T (they are currently the sole retailers - so no other retailers to split with). Not bad for one month!
Contrast this with Zune and XBox360.
Assuming Zune sales so far of 1.2m, and even assuming full retail price of $249, this is $298m in revenue - almost exactly equal to the revenue from the 146,000 AT&T activations. Only this has taken Microsoft not 30 hours, but more than 8 months. It is also a widely held belief that Microsoft has not SOLD 1.2m Zunes, but shipped them. Many remain unsold on shelves. And, there has also been some significant discounting from the $249 price, to say nothing of the retail margin.
XBox360 has been with us for about 20 months. 11.6m units shipped (but not necessarily sold). Assume price of $299 again, and we reach $3.468b. Then take the $1.2bn cost of repairs announced recently out of that - and we have a number approaching $2bn - for 20 months!
I know which company I would be betting on today.
We will see crazy headlines today, and we will see unpredictable market reaction whatever the numbers. But what is already clear is that Apple has a phenomenal hit on its hands. Reviews have been overwhelmingly outstanding. Sales have been very robust indeed - whatever these sky high forecasts make you think the boundary of success is. Apple is only to be praised for seemingly being able to just about keep up with demand (something in the past it has not been good at, with fair criticism from the same quarters who now say any unsold stock is a failure!) Any commentary on today's numbers that doesn't recognised the success for what it is - both in technical and business terms is very delusional (or in the pockets of some of Apple's and AT&T's competitors).
I'll be writing on the financial numbers after they come out. I'll be paying particular attention to what the sales of iPods and Macs have been in the last 12 months. But, if the market reaction is negative today, look at this as your best time to pick up Apple stock for some time.
Disclosure: the author holds 600 shares of Apple, and last time he bought shares was 11th July 2006 - a little over 12 months ago when they were as low as $54. I hope you followed my advice then!.
Tags: Apple, iPhone, Microsoft, Sales, AT&T
What IS amazing is that in 30 hours, from 6pm Friday to midnight Saturday, 146,000 iPhones were purchased, taken home, unboxed, plugged into a computer, and then successfully activated. Had anyone suggested such numbers even a day or two before the iPhone was released, they would have been considered an optimist. Now, some are comparing the 146,000 number to some mythical 1million figure some analysts ended up speculating on.
As far as I can recall, I have seen few analyst projections of 1million iPhones and certainly not even in the few day initial period. I have seen numbers as low as 50,000 (originally from Shawn Wu of American Technology Research, and general Apple bull) to perhaps 350,000 from Goldman Sachs. Some of those numbers were then doubled AFTER the weekend (to 700,000 in the case of Goldman Sachs).
But remember here, the weekend includes a Sunday - only the second full shopping day the iPhone was on sale. How many iPhones could not be activated at first (certainly a few by some rumours)? How many iPhones did not get activated by the Saturday evening because the person hadn't had time, was keeping the iPhone as a present, or whatever other excuse? How many iPhones were ordered from the online stores on those days for later delivery?
And, what is success anyway? Is failure just the inability to hit whatever highest number some analyst (perhaps a naysayer anyway) set just to create a headline?
At 146,000 iPhones sold in 30 hours, Apple and AT&T created a revenue stream of $292m to share between them over 24 months.
Today, Apple will report its own financial figures for the last quarter (its financial close period which began BEFORE the iPhone was released is the fundamental reason it has not been legally able to comment on sales before this time). Apple may also (like AT&T) choose to report just the 30 hour period (or perhaps 33 hour period in its case being based on the West Coast). But, even in this period it will include over the counter sales - not activations. It may also account for sales via the AT&T store differently - as these essentially are sales as a wholesaler of the product.
My wild guess at this point is that Apple will report sales of around 225,000 or more for the 30 hour period. And, if they are to report sales for the first week, or first month (we're just 2 days away from that point), we will genuinely see that they will have between 400,000/700,000 and 500,000/1million iPhones in people's hands today (firstweektarget/firstmonth target). I suspect Apple's control of PR extends to its agreement with AT&T and allows it to publish the first important headline numbers for sales.
Sales of more than 500,000 iPhones will be a 2 year revenue stream of at least $1billion between Apple and AT&T (they are currently the sole retailers - so no other retailers to split with). Not bad for one month!
Contrast this with Zune and XBox360.
Assuming Zune sales so far of 1.2m, and even assuming full retail price of $249, this is $298m in revenue - almost exactly equal to the revenue from the 146,000 AT&T activations. Only this has taken Microsoft not 30 hours, but more than 8 months. It is also a widely held belief that Microsoft has not SOLD 1.2m Zunes, but shipped them. Many remain unsold on shelves. And, there has also been some significant discounting from the $249 price, to say nothing of the retail margin.
XBox360 has been with us for about 20 months. 11.6m units shipped (but not necessarily sold). Assume price of $299 again, and we reach $3.468b. Then take the $1.2bn cost of repairs announced recently out of that - and we have a number approaching $2bn - for 20 months!
I know which company I would be betting on today.
We will see crazy headlines today, and we will see unpredictable market reaction whatever the numbers. But what is already clear is that Apple has a phenomenal hit on its hands. Reviews have been overwhelmingly outstanding. Sales have been very robust indeed - whatever these sky high forecasts make you think the boundary of success is. Apple is only to be praised for seemingly being able to just about keep up with demand (something in the past it has not been good at, with fair criticism from the same quarters who now say any unsold stock is a failure!) Any commentary on today's numbers that doesn't recognised the success for what it is - both in technical and business terms is very delusional (or in the pockets of some of Apple's and AT&T's competitors).
I'll be writing on the financial numbers after they come out. I'll be paying particular attention to what the sales of iPods and Macs have been in the last 12 months. But, if the market reaction is negative today, look at this as your best time to pick up Apple stock for some time.
Disclosure: the author holds 600 shares of Apple, and last time he bought shares was 11th July 2006 - a little over 12 months ago when they were as low as $54. I hope you followed my advice then!.
Tags: Apple, iPhone, Microsoft, Sales, AT&T
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