Blu-Ray or HD DVD

Anyone following this topic from the remote sidelines (like me) could have been forgiven for thinking this format war was essentially won. Blu-ray seemed to be getting all the minds behind it. Talks between Blu-ray group (primarily Sony) and HD DVD group (primarily Toshiba) had broken down. All publicity that I read seemed to indicate that Blu-ray was the superior technology and that essentially it would be the one to win out.

Now in the space of a day, I've had my mind changed, and all bets are at least off for the time being (well, I'm not a betting man anyway).

1. From Ars Technica a great article on the economics of the two formats.

2. Microsoft and Intel announce their support for HD DVD (this one from the Register but many other articles on this topic).

I have to say article 1 makes very compelling reasons why HD DVD is just fine, and Blu-ray will not make economic sense. There is still little question about the superiority of Blu-ray in terms of capacity. Maybe from the consumer perspective it won't matter too much if combined players come out. HD DVD is far from out for the count. I wonder if Sony will have backed the wrong horse again?