Couldn't resist!

Back-from-the-blogging-dead for just 1 post!

For the last few weeks, it's been full-on with the rumour mill on the Apple iTablet/iSlate or whatever. Let's just call it the iTablet here though I doubt (hope) tablet or slate will be in the name.

There have been some really intelligent things written by the usual commenters (oh, if I could write and think like Gruber!), and there's been the usual useless prophesying of doom, me-too, etc.

What the naysayers still haven't realised after years of being proven wrong is that Apple hasn't just been lucky, it's been incredibly smart for years and years. The only area where Apple has arguably not delivered a success in the Jobs-era is the AppleTV - and this is the one thing that Steve Jobs described as a hobby around the time it was released. If you haven't figured out this guy is smart yet, it's really about time you stopped "analysing"? I've interviewed with him before, and believe me he knows what he wants and he knows the people who can make it happen (I DIDN'T get the job!)

Has Apple's success happened overnight with just a few clever ideas? No. Look at the small pieces that have to be put together one component at a time to deliver the whole experience. It is this attention to detail in terms of the overall experience that takes each individual product above its competitors and keeps it out ahead. At the same time, Apple would rather leave out a feature than do it badly or have it create other problems that they KNOW, but the "analysts" don't. Does it now look like a stupid move to have a 2G iPhone as the first model?

So, with this in mind, we enter this week in the expectation that Apple will completely re-invent another area of our lives that we didn't even know needed re-inventing before the rumours started. Just as Apple killed the successful iPod mini with the iPod nano, I expect it this week to announce the product that begins the long-term decline of the laptop. Of course, many people will still need a laptop and/or prefer one (I'm likely to be a long term user for many reasons, but I would probably be considered unusual), and these people will generally be the ones that pour scorn on the new direction. Other people will say it wasn't Apple that did it, but that Apple is just responding to the netbook companies that started it.

But, Apple will do it in Apple's way - using user interface paradigms that initially we'll be unsure about, but will begin to appreciate as we see it demoed, as we see it being used, and as we begin to use it ourselves. Irrespective of the absolute form factor and other features, it will be the way we interact with it that will make THIS product introduction be the defining way such devices will work in the long term. Think Mac GUI and mouse, iPod clickwheel and iPhone multi-touch here - defining moments in the consumer electronics industry.

Could Apple get it wrong? Possibly. Newton 1.0 wasn't ready for primetime. Newton 2.0 was, but never got over the reputation of 1.0. Jobs is smarter than the people around Apple at that time. He has been waiting until it all comes together to do it right (iPod required small disks, firewire and clickwheel to do something revolutionary; iPhone required touch, SSD, high power tiny chips).

Apple have been sweating these details for years. I've read a rumour that the iPhone came out of the tablet development, and it's not an unlikely scenario. Multi-touch was not sufficiently developed or even understood to be used in something revolutionary beyond a small device with limited gestures. As MacWorld contributor Dan Moren wrote, this device will succeed or fail based on whether people BELIEVE they can INPUT stuff into it quickly and accurately - whatever stuff they want, but especially the stuff they are used to putting in their laptops via a keyboard. Any additional inputs (e.g. dictation, recording) will be bonuses. But the basics are a REQUIREMENT.

If Apple CAN get the input side right (early reactions will no doubt include the same people who condemned touch on the iPhone), then it has several advantages over the situation in mobile when it jumped in. Here, they were a late entrant into a theoretically competitive and maturing market - a market that was supposed to swallow up the iPod line as this functionality became just an extra app built into a mobile. Also, there was the gateway managed by restrictive telcos to negotiate - what was the most Apple could put in the device that would still allow them to partner with one or more major telcos? The iPhone remains below it's true potential today for these reasons (e.g. VoIP on 3G), but has blown a big hole in many of the restrictive models that were around before - something rarely appreciated by Apple's critics, but which has benefitted all handset makers and consumers.

In this case, we have an immature market, with no gatekeepers - and that is even giving some credit to the tablets already out there that are really nothing more than windows pc's with a stylus. With the iPhone, there were NO apps when it was released, and the best we could get were a limited number of web apps. Apple will release the tablet with a rich set of applications already there to demonstrate it's usefulness, and the existing iPhone developers will jump on ship quickly making use of possibly the best application delivery platform ever available (I do not see this as just a big iPhone - that would fail, but I do see many of the developments being carried over to the iTablet. I guarantee, there will be no shortage of apps very quickly - perhaps even day 1. Let's just hope that the good ones rise to the surface quickly. I believe the key in widespread success will be how quickly the ecosystem of hardware add-ons and software develops to produce compelling uses that were never before possible with either a laptop or a tiny phone. That will create the barriers to entry allowing Apple to profit from the device over the long term.

That brings us to two other key success factors. The first is how much Apple can open up this device when compared with the iPhone. I've no doubt this will be an openly multi-tasking device (not just limited to certain Apple-designed apps) - but how this is done without compromising performance, reliability and security will be key. I also think Apple will have to allow alternative application delivery methods here - at least in the medium term. Central control has served it (and its customers) well for the iPhone. But this model will be too restrictive in the longer term for a device like this, constrain new business models and entrants into the ecosystem. I don't believe Windows will develop fast enough to offer good alternatives, but Google can take either ChromeOS or Android into this area quite quickly and give a more open proposition if Apple doesn't do it fast on the back of release.

The final issue comes down to cost. Apple is known as the high cost company - something I feel is grossly misrepresented by many in the media and the anti-apple brigade who can't understand basic specification sheets or look at cost of ownership - but let's face it, plenty of companies will come up with something cheaper that purports to do a similar thing. Can Apple deliver this best-of gadget at a compelling price - much as it has with the iPhone - by both quantity production and perhaps viewing the device as a gateway to content consumption and application purchase for which it's getting a cut?

If these things are on Apple's side, then this device becomes the main device we carry around with us as we work, play, travel, etc. THE primary device on which content is consumed, communicated and collaborated (but less so, created). Sure, we'll still need our phones - and for many this may still do - but how often will most people need their laptop? It's not even going to be one device per family - this will be intended to be a one-per-family-member product much as the iPod has become - with you in the kitchen/breakfast table, a companion to watching tv, on the train, in meetings, at conferences or lectures, as we go about most aspects of our jobs and our leisure activities. There will be a steady shift back towards the home computer/desktop computer as the place it all comes together and for heavy lifting (e.g. photo/video management) - as well as (or maybe just) the cloud for the actual storage of our data.

The notebooks have tried to destroy the laptop market by cheapness. Can Apple destroy it (an area it makes much of its profit) by building something BETTER than a laptop for most of what we do? I personally think it can and I think Steve Jobs is on a mission to do this (remember the comment "the PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago"? Is that not a motivator for him to change the game?). The mainstream media have set this as a (perhaps an unfairly) high hurdle, but Wednesday's announcement will probably be judged on whether the new product meets this challenge (while being criticised for attempting to take the challenge on and not delivering in every single possible area!). It is a measure of Apple's achievements that this is even being talked about so enthusiastically BEFORE a product is released - where's the excitement from Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc who should equally be capable of this sort of development, let alone the Redmond machine which will once again be left looking foolish and void of ideas. It will be a true measure of greatness if Apple can deliver something that yet again inspires a new round of innovation.

What an exciting week ahead!

Tags: Apple, iTablet, iSlate, iPhone, Microsoft

Vista Marketshare

In my previous recent posts I've mentioned about my purchase of XP Pro for use on my about-to-be-delivered MacBook Pro.

I bought my copy at Amazon.co.uk and I thought I'd look at what was/wasn't selling on Amazon. I was amazed to see that XP Pro was indeed the top selling Microsoft OS on this site in 11th place (on all software titles). The first version of Vista was in 30th place. Only one other copy of Vista was in the top 50.

Wondering if this was a UK phenomenon, I popped over to the US Amazon site. Similar situation. This time, XP Home was in the top 25 at 15th place, and XP Pro somewhere in the 25-50 range. The first version of Vista was at 62.

I checked also at NewEgg a popular site for system builders, and it seems again that more people are buying XP than are buying Vista. Now some might argue the fact that Vista has so many versions dilutes it's position. But really there are also many versions of XP (Home/Pro, 32bit/64bit, OEM, Full,etc), and the gap in the position of XP and Vista is so significant that I do not believe that sum(copies of Vista) > sum(copies of XP).

I have always expected Vista to be a success, and I recognise that there is quite a difference in the PC world than the Mac world for doing upgrades etc. But to think that 6 months after the full introduction of Vista, when given the choice, more people are buying a 6 year old OS seems very strange indeed. That is a sad reflection on Microsoft's strategy and something that should cause them long-term worry. I know for sure that 6 months after Leopard is (eventually) released, the same will not be true on the Mac platform.

As a final aside, I did this check a day after Amazon.com had introduced a Leopard pre-order and was amazed to see Leopard in 1st place across ALL software, and Leopard family pack in 3rd place. Not only that, but even MacOS Tiger (10.4) was ahead of any copy of Vista (in 55th place)!

A visitor from outerspace would make a very different conclusion on the operating system market than is reality if presented with these figures. But, would they infer a more accurate view of the future?

Tags: Apple, Microsoft, Vista, XP, Mac OS X

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

I know I shouldn't help give eyeballs to Paul Thurrott's musings, but I can't help refuting this one:

While Apple's yearly revenues for Macintosh computers have barely edged up in over five years, the company's revenues of iPods and related products and services have skyrocketed

Yearly revenues for Macs have barely edged up in over five years? Really.

Well, I knew this not to be true, as I track these numbers regularly. I took Apple quarterly reports back to the final quarter of 2000 (the start of the 01 fiscal year), which allowed me to compare a full five years.

Revenue growth over the 5 years in each of the last quarters was 122%, 31%, 52%, and 84% respectively. Unit growth was 90%, 48%, 60% and 89% respectively. For the full year, revenue growth was 68% and unit growth 72% over the 5-year-ago period (a more reliable figure). This is not just a recent year phenomenon either (although the first 3 years were relatively flat).

I pointed this out to Paul in a provocative email and received a polite-ish response - obviously from someone who receives countless emails from the Mac fanbois, claiming that he got his statistics from the New York Times. He promised to investigate, but don't expect a retraction, folks.

But Paul's use of "facts" is pretty typical in this day and age - deliberate or not. It is not always easy to find the facts (though this one is not too hard). It also seems beyond many people to analyse them properly. When combined with the recursiveness of the blogosphere (and it's frequent lack of attribution to source), it is easy to see how even accurate reports from some time previously get regurgitated indefinitely to prove a point. I wonder for instance how many reporters and bloggers will (mis)use the discredited Forrester report on iTunes sales last year (or, the even worse interpretations of that report) whenever they want to take a swipe on Apple in the coming year?

Anyhow, back to the facts. I think today's financials will once again show the Mac is back on track, growing towards a marketshare that at least makes it a contender again - and especially so in the consumer market of the developed world where it is most important (for Apple) to be. Now, Paul, go and update your facts!

Tags: Apple, Mac, Marketshare, Paul Thurrott, WindowsIT Pro

MacWorld Prediction Recap!

Well, at a stretch, I claim 4 out of 10 predictions right! This is probably a lot better than most commentators since most expected a slew of Mac hardware and software announcements.

However, before I get carried away with my foresightfulness, I should point out that I only get 4 out of 10 by counting my prediction of a widescreen video iPod (which is also the iPhone and which therefore accounts for 2 out of 10!). Other than that I predicted the AppleTV would be announced in more detail, and that there would be more movie studios on board (Paramount).

Another reason my stats look better is that I didn't count iLife07 and iWork07 in the 10 predictions taking these to be a given! So, really, it's 4 out of 12. Not so good!

Anyhow, it was a wildly different Macworld, and one to remember. Sure, Steve disappointed the Mac faithful with the paucity of Mac announcements, but he took the unprecedented opportunity offered by a coinciding CES, the iPhone, AND Apple's 30th birthday to steal the headlines around the world. My guess is that Apple garnered more column inches and certainly more eyeballs than the whole of CES put together, and almost all of it favourable. In the end, that's good for the Mac, and good for the Mac faithful.

I'll be visiting both AppleTV and iPhone over the next few days to see how groundbreaking these products are, looking back at what my predictions for each (and what I got wrong), and, shock, horror, why I won't be buying an AppleTV yet. We'll also be taking a look at the financials to be announced later on today and what that means to Mac users. Stay tuned....

Tags: Apple, iPod, iPod Phone, MacWorld, Mac, AppleTV

Outlandish Hobsblog MacWorld Predictions!

In the name of fun, I will postulate my top 10 interesting MacWorld announcements in order of their likelihood. Note, I am not saying they will all come to pass - indeed most will not as there isn't enough time for more than a few.

I'm not going to take the easy route of having a few slam-dunks either. We all know iLife07 will be out, and iWork07 too. And we all know Steve will talk about 10.5 a great deal. But 10.5 was never predicted by Apple to be ready by now, and I don't think they'll surprise people with it (and if they do, don't buy it, because it will not be ready for prime time).

So, here goes:

1. 8 core Mac Pros. This is a certainty within the next 2 months, if not at MacWorld. The Intel chips are ready, announced and should just plug in existing machines. Testing of such chips shows a 40% plus improvement over the existing four core versions on a price basis (the 4 core chips have lower clockspeeds at the same price point). Maybe not for all Mac Pro users, but those with lots of video processing and other tasks which thrive on multiple cores should be happy.

2. New displays with built-in iSight. This just makes sense given lack of iSight for sale and approach with all other Macs.

3. iTV. Steve will definitely say more on iTV - perhaps give us its final name? It may or may not be ready yet (I think it will use 802.11n and Apple will choose timing carefully when the near-standard is close enough to not cause them a bunch of lawsuits down the line).

4. iPod Phone. I'm still not sure this will be announced. See my previous posting for my views on this if and when it is announced. There have been some really well-written articles on this recently such as Steven Frank's thoughts and Aaron Adams' case for a VoIP phone rather than cell. (I think he's got a point, but I still think such a device would allow for mobile usage too). There's a good chance Steve will leave this topic until a later date as it's such a big announcement and complex that it may require an event of its own (and, remember, this is MACWorld)

5. Larger MacBook (a definite hole in the Apple product line up - a consumer laptop with a decent 15" screen)

6. Smaller MacBook Pro (also a hole in the lineup though not as severe as the MacBook)

7. True video iPod - ie a full widescreen model perhaps with 640x480 resolution.

8. iTunes 8. I'm basing this idea as much on the need to support the iPod Phone as anything else. iTunes 7 was quite recent and had many changes.

9. more movie studios on board; more iTS content.

10. International tv programming or perhaps first international movie availability with Disney.

One real longshot is the fabled xMac or grown-up Mac Mini (3.5" disk, higher end graphics, RAM, etc). However, there will not be a MacTablet for reasons that plenty of people have written about.

It should be great fun - and Apple is certainly stoking up the fires on this. But I wonder if the expectations are just too far ahead of what is really achievable right now, and that it'll be followed by a share price deflation and mediocre reviews. Remember it's the start of 2007 - there's still a lot more to come after this announcement.

Tags: Apple, iPod, iPod Phone, MacWorld, Mac, iTV

MacII heads to landfill

It was a sad day today when, while visiting my mum, I took my old MacII down to the recycling centre (c'mon, I just wrote the headline to attract the Greenpeace brigade).

It had sat in a cupboard since being replaced by the iBook G4 last year, and hadn't been used for a few years previously by my mum. Nevertheless, as a machine that was manufactured in February 1987 - so almost 20 years old - it has had a long life. I know the manufacture date because I took the lid off to remove the hard drive - an 80MB superfast model that I bought separately at the time. Inside the top was written the date of manufacture with a marker pen! It struck me how well-engineered this box was - particulary the way the top came off and how the Nu-bus cards could be added/removed - neither actions requiring a screwdriver. The monitor, keyboard and box itself where all of very solid construction indeed.

I think this was my second (or maybe my third) home Mac, but my first colour one (was it the first colour Mac?) and cost upwards of $5,000 at the time when I was in the US. At then exchange rates, that was around £4,000!

In an ideal world of course, I'd have kept this, but really it wasn't in good enough condition to be a museum piece. For my mum, I think the last straw came when she opened the cupboard and had the monitor fall on her head! So, out it went. In disposing of it, I was amazed at the lack of options available to us for recycling such devices in this country, and I hope that will soon change.

I had a great time with my MacII and it was a revolution at the time. Next week we should be welcoming a MacBook Pro CD2 into the household (though not for me unfortunately - it is to replace a Titanium G4 PowerBook stolen from my partner's workplace). It makes me realise how much things have changed. 2,000times the disk storage, 500 times the memory (I think I had 4MB), and a processor that is clockwise 300 times more powerful than the 16Mhz Motorola 68020 (but not allowing for other chip improvements), all in a portable device a fraction of the size and weight, and for a price about 1/4 of what I paid for the Mac system!

I apologise for the quiet posting lately. Got a few articles in the works, so stay subscribed...

Tags: Apple, Mac II, MacBook Pro, recycle